Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Daguao, PR

SHORT TERM
Tonight through Tuesday...

This morning, radar and satellite imagery showed the development and movement of showers across the north-central interior and eastern Puerto Rico. Rainfall estimates ranged from 1 to 3 additional inches, especially in already saturated areas such as Florida, Morovis, Corozal, Manati, and Ciales, prompting flood warnings. The river Rio Grande de Manati remain at minor flood stage as of 3 PM AST, resulting in a Flood Warning and road closures. Residents and visitors, please follow order from local officials and never cross flooded roads. However, water levels are slowly but gradually receding. By midday, the arrival of drier and more stable air ended the rainfall, leading to a calmer afternoon and evening.
Northeasterly winds picked up along the coast at 10 to 15 mph, and temperatures reached the low to mid-80s in coastal areas and the 70s in the mountains.

No major changes were made to the short-term forecast as it remains largely on track. Looking ahead, a significant weather pattern shift is expected to continue into tonight, as a drier air mass moves in behind a departing trough. According to the latest model guidance, precipitable water values are forecast to significantly decrease into below average values over the next few days and an increase in mid-level temperatures, making the atmosphere less favorable for deep convection. A surface low northeast of the region will reinforce northerly winds early this work week, breezy this afternoon and Monday, then decreasing 5 to 10 mph on Tuesday. Rain chances will remain low, between 10% and 40%, with isolated showers mainly in the mornings over eastern areas and surrounding waters.
Some limited afternoon convection is still possible due to lingering moisture and local effects. Overall, a gradual improvement in weather conditions is expected from now and continuing into early next week.


LONG TERM
Wednesday through Sunday...

Current model guidance has precipitable water values (PWAT) at 0.90 to 1.10 inches by midweek, below normal values. By Wednesday, the mid to upper level trough that has been affecting the islands will be well northeast of the islands, and will gradually dissipate by Thursday. A surface trough, however, will continue to move towards the islands and eventually cross the region, promoting east- northeasterly steering flow on Wednesday, gradually backing to become east-southeasterly by Thursday and into the weekend. A notable increase in PWAT values is forecast by early Friday as abundant moisture from the starts to enter the region behind the surface trough. By Friday morning, eastern PR is forecast to have more than 1.5 inches of PWAT, with values gradually increasing eastward and St. Croix having around 2.0 inches. This moisture surge will continue into the weekend with PWAT values ranging from 1.8 to 2.0 inches by Sunday, above normal values for this time of the year. Most available moisture will be confined to below 700 mb to start the period and through at least late Friday. In general, weather conditions are forecast to become increasingly more humid as the workweek progresses.
Overnight and morning showers are still forecast over windward areas while afternoon convection will still occur over sectors of western PR, depending on the prevalent steering flow each day. The increase in moisture to end the workweek and into the next weekend can increase the coverage of this activity. 925 mb temperatures are forecast to be at below to normal values by midweek, gradually climbing due to east-southeast flow during the second half of the workweek.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFs)

VFR conds expected across all TAF sites during period. NE winds at 15–20 knots with higher gusts through 20/23z. Winds will gradually ease to 5–15 knots by 20/23Z, increasing again aft 21/13z.

MARINE
Increasing northeasterly winds and a weak northerly swell will maintain hazardous marine conditions into early next week. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the offshore Atlantic Waters, Mona Passage, and coastal waters of northern and northwestern Puerto Rico. Conditions will be hazardous to small craft in these areas. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. For more information, please refer to the latest Marine Weather Message (MWWSJU) & Coastal Waters Forecast (CWFSJU).

BEACH FORECAST
Tonight, strong winds and a northerly swell will maintain marine and coastal conditions hazardous, mainly at the northern coasts of Puerto Rico and Culebra. A High Risk of Rip Currents is in effect for the north- oriented beaches of Puerto Rico, from Aguadilla to Fajardo, through at least early Tuesday. A High Risk of Rip Currents is also in effect for the beaches of Rincon, Aguada and Culebra, through at least early tomorrow, Monday. A High Risk of Rip Currents means that life- threatening rip currents are likely in the surf zone.

A moderate risk of rip currents continues today and tonight for several beaches of St. Thomas, St. John, St. Croix, SW Puerto Rico and Vieques. A moderate risk of rip currents means that life- threatening rip currents are possible in the surf zone. Life- threatening rip currents often occur in the vicinity of groins, jetties, reefs, and piers.

If you become caught in a rip current, yell for help. Remain calm, do not exhaust yourself and stay afloat while waiting for help. If you have to swim out of a rip current, swim parallel to shore and back toward the beach when possible. Do not attempt to swim directly against a rip current as you will tire quickly.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for PRZ001-002- 005-008.

High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for PRZ010-012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for VIZ001.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight AST Tuesday night for AMZ711.

Small Craft Advisory until midnight AST Monday night for AMZ712- 742.

Small Craft Advisory until noon AST Tuesday for AMZ741.