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AMZ725 Coastal Waters Of Southern Usvi Vieques And Eastern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 929 Am Ast Wed Mar 8 2023
Rest of today..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Isolated showers.
Tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Isolated showers.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas around 5 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Numerous showers.
Thursday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Scattered showers.
Friday..North winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Isolated showers.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 12 seconds. Isolated showers.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 12 seconds.

AMZ700 841 Pm Ast Fri Dec 1 2023
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... A broad surface high pressure building over the western atlantic will promote moderate to fresh trade winds across the regional waters through at least Saturday. Increasing winds and northerly swells will maintain choppy to hazardous seas for small craft, mainly across the local offshore waters and passages through the weekend. Increasing passing shower activity is likely through the weekend.

FXCA62 TJSJ 012051 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 451 PM AST Fri Dec 1 2023


SYNOPSIS

Tonight, expect variable weather conditions to prevail across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Coastal and marine conditions will continue to deteriorate tonight into the weekend due to the combination of increasing winds and northerly swells.
Breezy wind conditions and showery weather expected through the weekend, mostly over windward coastal areas of the local islands.



SHORT TERM
Tonight through Sunday...

Variable weather and breezy wind conditions were observed accompanied by a blend of sunny skies and clouds throughout the day.
This weather pattern will persist tonight, with passing showers affecting mostly windward coastal areas. Wind gusts of up to 29 mph were reported along coastal areas. This is due to the tightening of the pressure gradient over the northeastern Caribbean as a surface high pressure builds north of the local area. Breezy wind conditions from the east-northeast will persist through at least Saturday.

No major changes were made to the inherited forecast. The mid-level ridge will continue to be pushed westward in the coming days as a polar trough deepens east of the Caribbean basin. The forecast area will remain between these two features, therefore, some instability will increase but will remain within normal levels for this time of year. The inversion cap close to 850 mb will gradually erode as 700- 500 mb relative humidities increase to around 40% to 50%. At low levels, moisture increase is expected as a frontal boundary sinks southward, particularly by late Saturday night into Sunday.
Therefore, the anticipated increase in cloud coverage and the possibility of showery weather are expected to be the primary impacts associated with the approaching frontal boundary and the eroding mid-level ridge, particularly by late Saturday through Sunday. Areas most affected will be over eastern and northern municipalities of Puerto Rico and the smaller islands. While flooding rains are not anticipated, driving conditions could turn hazardous with reduced visibility and slippery roads for short periods.

LONG TERM
Monday through Friday...

Model guidance suggests a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT- low) developing over the eastern Caribbean by Monday. As the upper- level trough deepens on the eastern side of Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands, expect a weak surface-induced trough to move over the area through the long-term period. Despite these features, the mid-levels are expected to remain fairly dry with relative humidity remaining below 40% for most of the workweek, although an increase is expected by Friday. At low-levels, the latest model guidance suggests precipitable water values remaining within the 25th and 75th percentile of the climatological normal, with highest amounts expected by the end of the workweek. The Galvez-Davison Index indicates that most of the activity during the long-term forecast will remain mostly shallow. Therefore, expect alternating periods of fair weather and showery weather depending on moisture content being dragged by the easterly trades. Increasing frequency of showers are anticipated by the end of the long-term period.

AVIATION
VFR conds expected through the forecast period for all TAF sites. However, VCSH/SHRA are expected after 01/23z at TJSJ/TJBQ/TIST/TISX. Winds will remain from the ENE at around 15- 20kt and occasional gusts are expected for the rest of today, weakening slightly after 01/23Z to around 10KT or less. Winds will pick up once again tomorrow after 02/14z btw 15-20 kt and higher gusts.

MARINE
A broad surface high pressure building over the western Atlantic will promote moderate to fresh easterly trade winds across the regional waters through at least Saturday. Increasing winds and northerly swells will maintain choppy to hazardous seas for small craft, mainly across the local offshore waters and passages through the weekend. There is a Small Craft Advisory starting at 8 AM Saturday through 8 AM AST Sunday for the offshore Atlantic waters. However, it is very likely that the Small Craft Advisory for the offshore Atlantic waters will be extended through at least Monday as northerly swells and choppy conditions prevail.

SURF ZONE
Latest bouy observation from buoy 41043 continues to indicate a northerly swell reaching the northern surf zone, promoting life- threatening rip currents. For that reason the High Rip Current Risk is already in effect for these areas.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008-012.

VI...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to 8 AM AST Sunday for AMZ711.

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Roosevelt Roads
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Fri -- 05:08 AM AST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:37 AM AST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:27 AM AST     Moonset
Fri -- 12:24 PM AST     1.09 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:44 PM AST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:35 PM AST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:40 PM AST     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:27 PM AST     0.52 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Roosevelt Roads, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

Vieques Passage
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Fri -- 02:11 AM AST     0.48 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:16 AM AST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:37 AM AST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:39 AM AST     -0.31 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 09:58 AM AST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:27 AM AST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:30 PM AST     0.64 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:35 PM AST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:45 PM AST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:18 PM AST     -0.88 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 09:41 PM AST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Vieques Passage, Puerto Rico Current, knots

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