Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Aguas Claras, PR

SHORT TERM
Today through Wednesday...

Radar and satellite imagery indicated a patch of moisture, carried by breezy north-northeast winds, producing scattered showers overnight. The highest radar-estimated rainfall totals, ranging from 0.25 to 0.40 inches, were observed in parts of the north-central, northeastern, and eastern interior regions of Puerto Rico. A few isolated showers also affected Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Overnight temperatures ranged from the upper 50s in the mountains to the mid-70s across eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands, with light to moderate N-NE winds along windward areas and light and variable winds elsewhere.

A significantly different weather pattern is expected today, much drier than in recent days, as a dry air mass continues to filter in, supported by subsidence behind a departing upper-level trough.
Although strengthening north to northeasterly winds—driven by a surface high to the west-northwest—will promote some low-level moisture advection, precipitable water values will continue to drop, falling well below climatological normals for this time of year, reaching approximately 0.8 to 1.0 inches by this afternoon. At the same time, rising 500 mb temperatures (around -5°C) and re- establishing trade wind inversion will further stabilize the atmosphere and suppress deep convection. As a result, expect fewer showers, breezy conditions, and below-normal temperatures to start the week, supported by persistent north-to-northeasterly flow and cooler 925 mb temperatures.

On Tuesday, a slight increase in moisture—reaching around 1.2 inches, still below seasonal averages—will lead to a modest uptick in afternoon shower activity, though no flooding is expected.
Conditions will turn slightly drier again on Wednesday, though not as dry as today, with isolated to scattered showers possible during the afternoon. Importantly, moisture previously associated with the frontal boundary that affected the region in recent days is expected to return late Wednesday night, moving in from the east and steered by east-southeasterly trade winds. This moisture will linger over the area through the latter part of the week and into the weekend.
Gusty winds and non-thunderstorm wind hazards are today's primary concerns, especially across exposed and coastal areas. No flooding is expected at this time. For more information, refer to the Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook: https:// www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=sju.

LONG TERM
Thursday through Monday...

Current model guidance has a pocket of dry air early Thursday, with precipitable water (PWAT) values ranging at 0.80 to an inch over the islands, below normal values for this time of the year. A surface trough should start to cross the islands by this time, ultimately resulting in east-southeasterly steering flow through most of the period. Behind this feature is abundant moisture, weather conditions are forecast to become increasingly more humid as the workweek progresses. A notable increase in PWAT values is forecast by early Friday as the aforementioned abundant moisture from the east starts to enter the region. By Friday morning, eastern PR is forecast to have more than 1.5 inches of PWAT, with values gradually increasing eastward and St. Croix having around 1.9 inches. This moisture surge will continue into the weekend with PWAT values ranging from 1.8 to 2.0 inches by Sunday and Monday, well above normal values for this time of the year. Most available moisture will be confined to below 800 mb on Thursday and early Friday, deepening afterwards. Showers and possible t-storms are forecast over windward areas while afternoon convection affects sectors of W-NW PR. Although this activity is forecast to be shallow on Thursday, the increase in moisture and more favorable conditions to end the workweek into early next week can increase the coverage and intensity of this activity and promote a limited to elevated flooding risk over the islands. 925 mb temperatures are forecast to gradually climb to normal and above normal values due to the east-southeast flow.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs)

Brief periods of MVFR conditions are expected at TJSJ, TJBQ, and USVI terminals due to passing showers through 21/14Z and again after 21/23Z. North-northeast winds at 10–15 knots, increasing to 15–20 knots with higher gusts after 21/14Z, then gradually easing to 10–15 knots after 21/23Z. At TJPS, light and variable early winds increase to 10–15 knots between 21/13–22Z, before returning to light and variable after 21/22Z.

MARINE

A surface high pressure system over the western Atlantic will continue to push remnant showers of a past frontal boundary across the region while a nearby mid to upper level trough and a surface trough moves away from the area. Increasing northeasterly winds and pulses of northerly swell will maintain hazardous marine conditions into mid-week.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the offshore Atlantic Waters, Mona Passage, and coastal waters of northern and northwestern Puerto Rico, as well as the northern coastal waters of Culebra, St. Thomas & St. John. Conditions will be hazardous to small craft in these areas. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. For more information, please refer to the latest Marine Weather Message (MWWSJU) & Coastal Waters Forecast (CWFSJU).

BEACH FORECAST

Today, increased winds and a weak northerly swell is deteriorating coastal conditions mainly at the northern coasts of Puerto Rico, Culebra, St. Thomas and St. John. A High Risk of Rip Currents is in effect for the north- oriented beaches of Puerto Rico, from Aguadilla to Fajardo, through at least early Wednesday. A High Risk of Rip Currents is also in effect for the beaches of Rincon, Aguada and Culebra, through at least early tomorrow, Tuesday. A High Risk of Rip Currents is also in effect for the beaches of St.
Thomas and St. John, through at least this evening.A High Risk of Rip Currents means that life-threatening rip currents are likely in the surf zone.

A moderate risk of rip currents continues today and tonight for several beaches of St. Croix, SW Puerto Rico and Vieques. A moderate risk of rip currents means that life-threatening rip currents are possible in the surf zone. Life-threatening rip currents often occur in the vicinity of groins, jetties, reefs, and piers.

If you become caught in a rip current, yell for help. Remain calm, do not exhaust yourself and stay afloat while waiting for help. If you have to swim out of a rip current, swim parallel to shore and back toward the beach when possible. Do not attempt to swim directly against a rip current as you will tire quickly.

For more information, please refer to the latest Coastal Hazard Message (CFWSJU) & Surf Zone Forecast (SRFSJU).

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for PRZ001-002- 005-008.

High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ010-012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for VIZ001.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight AST Tuesday night for AMZ711.

Small Craft Advisory until midnight AST tonight for AMZ712-716- 742.

Small Craft Advisory until noon AST Tuesday for AMZ741.