Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Utuado, PR

.Short Term(This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 125 PM AST Mon Sep 21 2026

Clear to partly cloudy skies prevailed across the islands during the morning hours, with passing showers moving across eastern to southern portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Based on radar estimates, accumulations were not significant overall, but locally, 0.75 to nearly 1 inch of rain was reported in the municipality of Naguabo. From mid-morning into the afternoon hours, cloudiness began to increase, accompanied by additional persistent passing showers moving into the interior municipalities. In terms of winds, the overall low-level wind flow has been from the southeast at around 5 to 12 mph. At 11 AM AST, daytime temperatures ranged from the upper 80s to the low 90s, while heat indices reached the low 100s °F, with localized areas across north-central Puerto Rico reaching up to 110 °F at that time. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 3 PM AST this afternoon for both Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Latest satellite-derived Precipitable Water (PWAT) imagery indicates values remain near seasonal levels to slightly above normal (1.9 to 2.1 inches). The morning sounding (12Z TJSJ) showed 1.91 inches of PWAT and a persistent light southeasterly flow from the surface to around 3 km. This, in combination with daytime heating, local effects, and 500-mb temperatures around -6 °C, should support the potential for strong thunderstorms capable of frequent lightning and gusty winds. As a result, for the rest of the afternoon, an elevated flood threat remains in place, particularly across portions of the interior, north-central, and northwestern Puerto Rico, while a limited flood threat remains for portions of eastern Puerto Rico into the metropolitan area with the development of the El Yunque and U.S. Virgin Islands streamers. An elevated flood threat means flooding is possible in urban areas, roads, small streams, and washes, while a limited flood threat means ponding of water is possible on roads and in poorly drained areas.

For the rest of the short-term period, seasonal moisture and easterly to southeasterly winds will continue, driven by a surface high-pressure system establishing over the eastern Atlantic. Aloft, a series of upper-level lows will linger, gradually cooling mid- level temperatures to -7 to -8 °C on Tuesday and Wednesday. As a result, a similar weather pattern is expected to continue over the coming days, with heat and afternoon convection as the main hazards.
However, one difference expected on Wednesday is that drier air will filter into the mid-levels, slightly suppressing convective activity. Nevertheless, local effects and low-level moisture should be sufficient to support afternoon activity. Continue to monitor the forecast as forecast adjustments and updates become available.

Overall, above-normal heat and strong afternoon thunderstorms posing a limited to elevated flood risk are expected to continue through the forecast period.

.Long Term(Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 215 AM AST Mon Sep 21 2026

Surface high pressure across the central to eastern Atlantic will promote mainly southeasterly low-level wind flow during most of the long-term period, becoming more easterly early next week, at around 10 to 18 knots. The latest models show that precipitable water content will remain mainly near seasonal values, between 1.75 and 2.0 inches, except from Friday night into early Saturday, when values may decrease to around 1.5 inches (25th percentile), as low concentrations of Saharan dust particles are expected to start arriving.

By Thursday and Friday, models continue to indicate mid to upper- level lows, bringing some instability and 500-mb temperatures cooling to below-seasonal values, around -8 to -9 degrees Celsius.
Models have been adjusting, bringing drier air into the 850 to 700- mb levels and also into the mid to upper levels during the weekend.
With marginal instability aloft, daytime heating, and local effects, at this time Thursday and Friday look like two days with frequent passing showers across windward areas and the U.S. Virgin Islands, along with strong afternoon thunderstorms across parts of the interior into northwestern Puerto Rico. If this scenario materializes, it could produce heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and locally gusty winds. A limited to elevated flooding risk is possible during this period, meaning that flooding in urban areas, on roads, and in small streams and washes is possible.

As previously mentioned, Saturday looks like the day Saharan dust will start to infiltrate the islands. Additional mid-level drying is expected. As a result, rain chances are expected to decrease, and afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms, driven by local effects, should remain more confined to northwestern Puerto Rico and decrease in intensity. From Sunday into early next week, low-level winds are also expected to strengthen somewhat and available moisture gradually increase. That should allow for a more typical pattern, with morning showers across eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, followed by afternoon convection across western sectors of Puerto Rico.

A persistent hazard during the long term will be the heat. It will largely depend on cloud cover and the coverage and timing of showers, but overall, the combination of seasonal moisture, mainly southeasterly winds, and 925-mb temperatures around two standard deviations above normal will likely result in warm to hot conditions, particularly from 11 AM to 4 PM, which are typically the peak heat hours.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 PM AST Mon Sep 21 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected across all TAF sites through most of the forecast period. However, VCTS & TSRA will likely result in intermittent MVFR to brief IFR conds and mountain obscurations at TJSJ/TJBQ thru 21/22z. VCSH are expected across the rest of the terminals. Mainly ESE winds up to 10 kt and sea breeze variations.
Light and variable winds expected overnight. A similar weather pattern is expected to continue on Tuesday.

MARINE
Issued at 125 PM AST Mon Sep 21 2026

A weak surface high pressure northeast of the region will maintain gentle to moderate east-southeasterly trades of 5 to 15 knots over the next few days, with winds gradually becoming easterly late Tuesday into midweek as the high pressure becomes better organized over the northeastern Atlantic. Seas will remain around 2 to 4 feet across the Atlantic and Caribbean waters, including the local passages. A small long-period northeasterly swell will reach the area late Wednesday into late in the workweek, becoming the dominant period across the local Atlantic Waters, including the Anegada and northern sections of the Mona Passages. However, so far wave heights are expected to remain between 2 to 4 feet across the region.
Passing showers may briefly increase winds and seas, while afternoon thunderstorms moving into the western and northwestern coastal waters of Puerto Rico may produce locally strong gusts, torrential rainfall, and frequent lightning through the early evening hours.

BEACH FORECAST
Issued at 125 PM AST Mon Sep 21 2026

Low rip current risk is expected across all local beaches for the rest of today, tonight and tomorrow, Tuesday. From late Wednesday onward, a moderate risk is expected to return across the north and east-facing beaches of the islands, due to a small long-period northeasterly swell and a slight increase in wind speeds across the coastal waters. Additionally, daily diurnal convection will continue to generate afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms across the northwest quadrant and northeastern Puerto Rico, bringing localized hazards of lightning and gusty winds.
Beachgoers should monitor changing conditions and seek shelter immediately. An elevated heat risk is forecast through at least Tuesday, enhancing potential heat impacts. Residents and visitors should remain hydrated and limit prolonged sun exposure during peak afternoon heating. Follow guidance from local health officials.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...Heat Advisory until 3 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ001>013.

VI...Heat Advisory until 3 PM AST this afternoon for VIZ001-002.

AM...None.