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AMZ725 Coastal Waters Of Southern Usvi Vieques And Eastern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 929 Am Ast Wed Mar 8 2023
Rest of today..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Isolated showers.
Tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Isolated showers.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas around 5 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Numerous showers.
Thursday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Scattered showers.
Friday..North winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Isolated showers.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 12 seconds. Isolated showers.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 12 seconds.

AMZ700 1002 Am Ast Wed Dec 6 2023
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... Surface high pressure ridge spread across the east and central central atlantic will promote light to moderate trades during the next few days across the atlantic waters. Meanwhile, locally higher winds are expected today across the caribbean waters and passages due to a weak surface trough. A cold front will continue to move eastward across the western atlantic, approaching the northeastern caribbean by Friday, while a strong surface high pressure builds behind it. A small northeasterly swell will persist through at least Thursday, while a larger, northwesterly swell is expected to move across the local waters from Friday onwards. Hazardous seas due to increasing winds and swells are expected during the weekend into early next week.

FXCA62 TJSJ 060833 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 433 AM AST Wed Dec 6 2023

New SYNOPSIS, AVIATION, MARINE

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 409 AM AST Wed Dec 6 2023

The stable weather pattern will prevail under an east- southeasterly wind flow today. Winds will become calm to light and variable, and moisture may pool over the islands as a frontal boundary approaches from the west on Thursday. The frontal boundary will linger north of the island through at least late Saturday when a sub-tropical high will build north of the region, increasing the local winds through next week. Based on the latest model guidance, around Saturday may be the wettest day in the forecast

SHORT TERM
Today through Friday...

Stable weather conditions prevailed across the local region during the night hours. The Doppler Radar observed a few quick showers over the offshore Caribbean Waters. Overnight temperatures were in the low to mid-70s across the coastal areas and into the low to mid-60s across the mountain areas.

A stable but variable weather pattern is forecast during the short- term period. A mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic, extending into the central Atlantic, will maintain drier conditions aloft, limiting the potential for widespread shower activity for most of the period. The stable conditions will combine with a lack of moisture in the lower levels, as the model guidance suggests, indicating values of precipitable water two standard deviations below climatological normals. In fact, GOES-derived Satellite Imagery shows precipitable water values ranging from 1 to 1.2 inches. Although a drier air mass is moving into the region, an advective pattern will trigger quick passing showers over the local waters, especially in the evening and early morning, continuing throughout the rest of the day.

A frontal boundary moving southeastward into the Caribbean and the associated pre-frontal trough will relax the pressure gradient, inducing more light to variable winds. Under this pattern, shallow moisture will linger in the light winds, increasing the potential for some showers across the interior, especially in the afternoon.
Light winds will not last long as the frontal boundary lingers just north of the region, resulting in a more east-northerly wind. This wind flow and humidity from the boundary will enhance a cold air advection, resulting in quick passing showers and cooler temperatures.

LONG TERM
Saturday through Wednesday...

The frontal boundary lingering north of the region will interact with an easterly disturbance, which may result in showery weather on Saturday. Periods of moderate to locally heavy rain may produce ponding of water in poorly drained areas. Although model guidance had shown inconsistency in the weather pattern, the latest run indicated the possibility of observing rainy conditions during the afternoon into the evening.

The mid-level high pressure will linger through at least the middle of next week. Meanwhile, at the surface, a sub-tropical high-pressure building north of the region will push the remnants of the frontal passage near the local Atlantic Waters as a modified backdoor front. In the Caribbean, an easterly disturbance will bring additional moisture across the local Caribbean waters.
Under this weather pattern, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands will be surrounded by near to above-normal moisture to the north and south of us through at least Monday. Once again, the uncertainty is high, as we are at the mercy of the wind pattern and how the local winds push those plumes of moisture across the region. In other words, if the moisture sinks over the area, it may result in rainy conditions; otherwise, we may see the typical advective weather conditions.

By the end of the forecast period (Tuesday and Wednesday), the high pressure may tighten the local pressure gradient, resulting in breezy or locally windy easterlies and extending the typical December advective pattern.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 409 AM AST Wed Dec 6 2023

VFR conditions will prevail for all the TAF sites during the period.
Winds will remain 8 knots or less, increasing by 06/14Z. An advective pattern will result in VCSH, mainly over the eastward sites. SHRA over the interior can result in a lower ceiling over TJBQ from 06/19 to 06/22Z. However, VFR conditions will prevail.

MARINE
Issued at 409 AM AST Wed Dec 6 2023

A weak surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will promote light to moderate trades during the next few days across the Atlantic waters. Meanwhile, locally higher winds are expected today across the Caribbean waters and passages due to an old frontal boundary. A cold front will move eastward across the Western Atlantic, approaching the Northeastern Caribbean by Friday, while a strong surface high pressure builds behind it. A lingering northeasterly swell will continue through at least Thursday, while a larger, northwesterly swell is expected to move across the local waters from Friday onwards. Hazardous seas due to increasing winds and swells are expected during the weekend into early next week.

BEACH FORECAST

The risk of rip currents is moderate for most beaches; however Vieques, southwestern, south and west Puerto Rico having a low risk.

A north-northeasterly swell and increasing winds will maintain high risk of rip currents from Friday onward. Please exercise caution across the north and east-facing beaches of the islands as life-threatening rip currents may develop.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.

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Playa de Fajardo
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:00 AM AST     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:37 AM AST     1.11 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:41 AM AST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:12 AM AST     0.58 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:28 PM AST     Moonset
Wed -- 03:25 PM AST     1.30 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:45 PM AST     Sunset
Wed -- 10:01 PM AST     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Playa de Fajardo, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

Vieques Passage
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Wed -- 01:00 AM AST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:27 AM AST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:47 AM AST     0.61 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:40 AM AST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:14 AM AST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:15 PM AST     -0.47 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 01:28 PM AST     Moonset
Wed -- 03:36 PM AST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:45 PM AST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:01 PM AST     0.27 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:22 PM AST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:53 PM AST     -0.53 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Vieques Passage, Puerto Rico Current, knots

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