Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Las Croabas, PR

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 215 PM AST Tue Apr 14 2026/

KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 400 PM AST Tue Apr 14 2026

* An unstable weather pattern will persist this afternoon, with showers and thunderstorms developing across portions of Puerto Rico and the USVI. The Flood Watch remains in effect through Wednesday morning.

* A wet pattern, associated with the remnants of the trough, will likely continue each afternoon through the weekend.

* A high risk of rip currents is present along the northwestern, north, and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, including Culebra, through at least Wednesday afternoon.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, variable and unsettled weather conditions will prevail, driven by increasing atmospheric instability and shifting wind patterns.

.Short Term (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 400 PM AST Tue Apr 14 2026

As mentioned in previous forecast discussions, the forecast for this unsettled and wet weather pattern associated with a deepening cut- off low has been challenging, mostly due to the positioning and timing of the heaviest rainfall activity. However, Vieques, Culebra, the USVI, and southwestern/southern Puerto Rico have received between 2 and 4 inches of rain over the last 24 hours. The Rio Guanajibo went out of its banks late last night, flooding roads in areas of Hormigueros and Cabo Rojo. During the morning hours, a line of strong showers and thunderstorms developed just offshore from San Juan through Fajardo, but later moved over the waters and continued to converge and redevelop in areas between Vieques, Culebra, and the USVI.

For the rest of the afternoon, expect these areas to remain active.
However, satellite data showed cloud clearing during the morning hours. This allowed the sea breeze to develop, which has led to showers and isolated thunderstorms over interior Puerto Rico. Expect this activity to persist through the evening hours. The positioning of the upper-level trough places the western part of the forecast area near the boundary between subsidence and favorable dynamics.
Therefore, the strength of convection will depend on the exact placement of that subsidence boundary. However, strong thunderstorms developed between Caguas and the San Juan/Carolina metro area, where a Special Weather Statement was issued early this afternoon. Despite the forecast challenges, antecedent conditions with saturated soils and elevated streamflows continue to increase the flooding threat, as any persistent heavy rain will quickly result in rapid river rises and excessive runoff that could lead to urban and river flooding, with possible flash flooding and landslides, particularly over interior and southwestern Puerto Rico. However, this activity is not expected to be widespread and should remain more localized in nature.

For the remainder of the short-term forecast, the trough will meander over the area and combine with above-normal moisture. With this setup, active afternoons are likely, with the development of strong thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. As mentioned earlier, soils are saturated and streamflows remain elevated; therefore, any additional persistent heavy rain will maintain an elevated flooding risk.
Please continue to monitor the forecast throughout the week.

.Long Term (Friday through next Monday)...
Issued at 400 PM AST Tue Apr 14 2026

An unsettled weather pattern is expected Friday through the weekend into early next week as a short wave trough sinks into the Caribbean. At the surface, high pressure over the western to central Atlantic will promote moderate to fresh ESE to easterly winds Friday and Saturday, becoming easterly Sunday and slightly ENE by Monday.
The pressure gradient will remain uneven, with stronger winds across eastern areas and weaker flow farther west, supporting faster moving showers in the east and slower storm motion in the west. Moisture will increase Friday into the weekend, with PWAT values above normal and at times exceeding climatological maxima, before slightly drier air filters in late Sunday into Monday. Aloft, a jet streak will lift over the area by Monday, while mid level temperatures remain modestly cool. This pattern will support periods of convection and isolated to locally scattered thunderstorm development across the region. Confidence is medium, as details depend on the timing and placement of the trough and deeper moisture.

Flooding will be the primary hazard, followed by lightning and breezy conditions. Showers and isolated to locally scattered thunderstorms are expected daily, generally favoring eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands overnight into the morning, then shifting westward each afternoon based on the latest model guidance.
The greatest risk will focus over northwestern Puerto Rico Friday and Saturday, western Puerto Rico on Sunday, and southwestern Puerto Rico by Monday. Faster storm motion over eastern areas may limit rainfall totals, but slower moving convection in western sectors could enhance flooding impacts. Breezy conditions will persist due to the general wind flow and may be locally enhanced by thunderstorm downdrafts. Soils may remain saturated, which could further increase the risk of flooding, landslides, and rapid river rises. This pattern will likely disrupt outdoor plans at times. Conditions should gradually improve late Sunday into Monday, though some uncertainty remains.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 400 PM AST Tue Apr 14 2026

MVFR condt across most TAF sites from 14/18Z through 14/22Z, except TJPS. Unstable weather conds will continue to produce SHRA/TSRA across TJSJ and TJBQ. VCTS near TIST and TISX through 15/03Z. Recent PIREPs rpt LGT/MOD TURB, especially nr TJSJ/TIST/TISX. TURB may persist through the night at terminal sites. Winds will remain light and vrb with higher gusts at times.

MARINE
Issued at 400 PM AST Tue Apr 14 2026

A surface high pressure system over the eastern to central Atlantic, interacting with a stationary frontal boundary north of the region, will promote light to gentle winds tonight. Pulses of northerly swell spreading across the Atlantic waters are maintaining seas around 5 to 6 feet across exposed areas, where small craft should exercise caution over the next several days. The combination of the front and the trough is increasing showers and thunderstorms across the local waters, creating locally hazardous marine conditions through at least midweek. Winds are expected to become gentle to moderate from the east to southeast from Wednesday onward.

BEACH FORECAST
Issued at 400 PM AST Tue Apr 14 2026

Based on current buoy observations, the forecast has been adjusted, and a high risk of rip currents is now in effect for the northwestern, north, and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, including Culebra. The Rip Current Statement is in effect from now through at least 6 PM AST Wednesday (tomorrow) due to energy arriving from pulses of a northerly swell. Beachgoers are urged to heed the advice of lifeguards, as well as beach patrol flags and posted signs. Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, a moderate risk of rip currents persists where rip currents are still possible, while a low risk remains along the southern beaches of the islands. Increasing winds from midweek onward could lead to a moderate risk of rip currents persisting along north-exposed beaches through at least next Saturday. Residents and visitors are encouraged to exercise caution, especially along exposed coasts. For more specific area details, refer to weather.gov/beach/sju.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010-012.

VI...None.
AM...None.