Sunrise 5:50 AM   Sunset 6:47 PM Moonrise 5:15 AM   Moonset 6:30 PM

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AMZ725 Coastal Waters Of Southern Usvi Vieques And Eastern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 929 Am Ast Wed Mar 8 2023
Rest of today - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Isolated showers.Tonight - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Isolated showers.Thursday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas around 5 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Numerous showers.Thursday night - North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Scattered showers.Friday - North winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Isolated showers.Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 12 seconds. Isolated showers.Sunday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 12 seconds.

AMZ700 951 Am Ast Tue May 7 2024
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters - . The surface high-pressure building north of the islands from the western to central atlantic will maintain a shearline south of the islands across the northeast caribbean, promoting light to moderate trade winds. Pulses of northeasterly swell will spread across the regional waters later tonight onward. Unsettled weather conditions due to strong Thunderstorms are likely, especially during the afternoon and evening, today and tomorrow.

FXCA62 TJSJ 070846 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 446 AM AST Tue May 7 2024

SYNOPSIS

A wet and unstable weather pattern will continue across the islands through at least mid-week due to an approaching mid- to upper-level trough and abundant tropical moisture. The risk of flooding will be elevated to locally significant due to already saturated soil and much above-normal river levels. Temperature- wise, due to the high moisture content, places without rain activity may experience above-normal heat indices (thus apparent temperatures) that surpass 100 degrees Fahrenheit.

Pulses of northeasterly swells propagating across the Atlantic Ocean will arrive later tonight through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening rip currents along the north—and east- facing beaches in PR and the USVI.

SHORT TERM
Today through Thursday...

During the overnight hours, calm conditions have persisted over most of the islands, however, showers have continued over local waters. Some of those showers moved inland, especially over eastern PR, Vieques, and San Juan vicinity, leaving approximately 1.0 to 1.5 inches of additional rain. Flood warnings remain in effect along the Rio Cibuco, Rio Grande de Manati, and Rio Guanajibo. We urge citizens to stay informed and not cross flooded roads.

The forecast remains on track during the short-term period. A wetter and more unstable pattern will persist with an elevated to significant risk of flooding through midweek. Plenty of moisture will remain present today and Wednesday with above than normal values of precipitable water (around 2.0 to 2.4 inches). Based on the latest weather models, high pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain light to moderate easterly to northeasterly winds at the surface. On the other hand, an upper-level trough will continue to swing by our region through mid-week, keeping favorable conditions aloft for the wet and unstable pattern to prevail this afternoon into Wednesday. In addition, mid-level temperatures will drop to around -8 degrees Celsius tonight enhancing the potential for thunderstorm development.

Please note that due to already saturated soils and much above normal river streamflows, any brief period of moderate to locally heavy rain or persistent light rainfall could lead to dangerous flooding problems, as well as sudden mudslides and landslides in areas of steep terrain. For that reason, we encourage residents and visitors to remain weather-aware and informed about these potential hazards. Be alert for any possible issuance of flood products.

During tonight's period, expect a similar scenario in comparison with last night, where shower and isolated thunderstorm activity shift to the local waters and coastal areas of northern and eastern Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. By Thursday, improving weather conditions are expected to develop as the mid to upper-level trough moves away and a mid-to-upper-level ridge builds and dominates across the region. Moisture levels should drop to near-normal levels, resulting in a more stable atmosphere and hopefully a break from the current conditions. Any afternoon convection that could develop will be due to local effects and sea breeze variations.

Temperature-wise, hot and humid conditions will prevail throughout the period. Daytime highs in the upper 80s to low 90s along the coastal/urban areas and lows in the upper 70s to low 80s along the higher terrains. Combined with above-than-normal moisture, heat indices may reach 100ºF or higher across coastal areas of Puerto Rico as well as the rest of the islands through the period.

LONG TERM
Friday through Tuesday

Model guidance suggests a mid- to upper-level ridge is trying to build over the Northeast Caribbean Friday into the weekend, promoting stable conditions and potentially bringing relief from the current weather conditions.

Once again, GFS Total Precipitable Water guidance suggests returning the climatological values for this time of year, with the advection of occasional patches of increased moisture.
Combining high moisture content with the typical upper 80s to low 90s maximum air temperatures will result in heat indices between 100-107 Fahrenheit or even higher, especially during the daily maximum heating, across the USVI and PR's urban and coastal areas where no significant rain is observed. 

Although we expect variable weather conditions with a mixture of sunshine/clear skies and clouds each day, local effects and sea breeze fluctuations may promote strong afternoon convection each day. Furthermore, the advection of a cooler air mass across the above-normal warmer sea surface temperature may result in frequent nighttime showers, affecting the windward sections and local waters each night.

The NASA aerosol optical thickness (AOT) guidance suggests the arrival of an air mass with possible African Dust Particles by the upcoming weekend, which may extend into next week.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)

Mostly VFR conditions expected this morning but VCSH should continue near TJSJ and USVI sites. The potential for VCTS and showers are expected to increase during the afternoon across all sites.
VCTS/TSRA may continue to promote tempo MVFR to brief IFR conditions later today. Higher winds and reduced vis near thunderstorms. E to NE surface winds at 10-15 kts, and then becoming lighter and more variable at night.

MARINE

The surface high-pressure building north of the islands from the Western to Central Atlantic will maintain a shearline south of the islands across the Northeast Caribbean, promoting light to moderate trade winds. Pulses of northeasterly swell will spread across the regional waters later tonight onward. Unsettled weather conditions due to strong thunderstorms are likely (especially during the afternoon and evening) today and tomorrow.

BEACH FORECAST

Expect increasing seas of 3 to 4 feet across most of the local beaches in the Atlantic, mainly from the northeast, at 6 to 8 seconds. Across the Caribbean, seas will range around 2 feet from the east to southeast at 6 to 8 seconds. Therefore, we expect the risk of rip currents to increase to moderate today.

Pulses of northeast swells, with wave periods of 10 to 13 seconds, will increase the risk of rip currents to moderate from late tonight into next weekend across the north and east-facing beaches of PR and the USVI. There is still a possibility of a high risk of rip currents during that period; it's crucial to monitor the beach forecast for possible updates to the expected conditions as the coastal hazards can change rapidly.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.

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Playa de Fajardo
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Tue -- 02:27 AM AST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:15 AM AST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:51 AM AST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:34 AM AST     0.96 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:37 PM AST     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:30 PM AST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:46 PM AST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:49 PM AST     1.88 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM AST     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Playa de Fajardo, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

Vieques Passage
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Tue -- 12:55 AM AST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:24 AM AST     -1.01 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:15 AM AST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:52 AM AST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:09 AM AST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:42 AM AST     0.52 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 01:27 PM AST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:15 PM AST     -0.54 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:29 PM AST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:45 PM AST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:52 PM AST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:28 PM AST     0.95 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:24 PM AST     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Vieques Passage, Puerto Rico Current, knots

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