Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rincón, PR

SHORT TERM
Today through Sunday...

Skies were mostly clear during the overnight hours with only a few light showers noted over the offshore coastal waters. Overnight low temperatures were in the upper 70s to low 80s along the coastal areas and in the upper 60s to low 70s n higher elevations. Winds were calm to light and variable. Extremely hot conditions are expected to continue today with daytime high expected to reach the low to mid 90s especially along parts of the north coastal areas under a light southerly wind flow. The dominant light southerly wind flow and strong mid to upper level ridging will maintain a subsident weather pattern and thus promote above normal heat conditions across the region. This pattern is expected to persist through Saturday, with the local wind flow gradually becoming more east-southeasterly over the rest of the weekend.

Limited shower activity is expected today under overall dry and stable weather pattern. However the intense daytime heating along with local sea breezes and local effects may lead to late afternoon convection over parts of the west central and northwest Puerto Rico.

By Saturday afternoon, an slight increase in low-level moisture is so far expected with model guidance suggesting PWAT values to be around 1.7 inches. This will increase the potential for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon but mainly focused over the central interior and west to northwest sections of Puerto Rico. Lesser activity is forecast for the U.S. Virgin Islands where mostly hot and sunny conditions are expected.

As the upper ridge is to erode by Sunday with the approach of a Tutt from the east, a transition to a wetter and more unstable pattern is forecast. Latest guidance continued to suggest precipitable water (PWAT) values to increase to between 1.80 to 2.13 inches by Sunday afternoon thus exceeding the climatological normals. This expected scenario will then favor enhanced overnight and afternoon convection across the islands. Additionally, the potential for thunderstorm development will increase as the suggested 500 mb temperatures decrease to between -6 and -7 degrees Celsius by Sunday afternoon.
Consequently the forecast continues to support best chance for enhanced afternoon showers and thunderstorm development with possible flooding in urban areas and small streams, including isolated flash floods possible during that time especially across portions of central and northwest to north central Puerto Rico including parts of the San Juan metro area.

LONG TERM
Monday through Thursday...

At the beginning of next week, a wet pattern is expected to persist, accompanied by easterly winds. According to the latest precipitable water (PWAT) models, values on Monday are projected to range from 1.8 to 2 inches, which falls within the normal range. At the upper levels, the axis of the TUTT low is anticipated to be near our area, enhancing rainfall development across the islands. Furthermore, the potential for thunderstorm activity is likely to increase, as 500 mb temperatures are expected to remain around -6 degrees Celsius. While winds may increase slightly, helping to expedite the movement of showers, some flooding in urban areas, on roads, and in small streams cannot be ruled out, particularly during the afternoon hours.

Variable conditions are expected to continue through mid-week. On Tuesday and Wednesday, mixed patches of moisture and dry pockets will shift within the easterly wind flow, creating a more typical weather pattern with morning showers across the eastern sectors of Puerto Rico and local islands, and afternoon convection in the interior and western regions. By Thursday, models indicate an increase in moisture, further enhancing rainfall development across the islands. Throughout this period, warm to hot conditions are anticipated.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)

VFR conds at all local terminals and en route btw islands. Few SHRA mainly over the offshore regional waters and local passages btw PR and the USVI, mstly SKC. SFC wnd calm to lgt/vrb bcmg S-SE 5-10 kts with sea breeze variations aft 11/14Z. SCT SHRA/ Isold TSRA psbl mainly over the Cordillera Central and NW PR fm 11/18-11/22Z. Lgt l/lvl wnds 5-10 kts with srly component BLO FL100...then backing bcmg fm E and incr w/ht ABV.

MARINE

Gentle to moderate southeast winds will prevail through the weekend as a weak surface high pressure pattern continues northeast of the region. Long-period northeasterly swells generated by Hurricane Leslie and distant storms and northwesterly swells from Hurricane Milton will continue to arrive to the local Atlantic waters and passages over the next few days, promoting hazardous seas.

BEACH FORECAST

Buoy 41044 is indicating additional long-period northeasterly swells reaching the northern coastal waters today. As a result, the High Surf Advisory was extended through 6 PM AST this afternoon due to large breaking waves up to 10 feet. These large breaking waves will create dangerous swimming conditions and may cause minor beach erosion. A High Rip Current Risk remains in effect for the northwestern, northern, and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico, as well in Culebra and all the U.S. Virgin Islands.
For more details, please refer to the latest Surf Zone Forecast (SRFSJU) and Coastal Hazard Message (CFWSJU).

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ001-002-005- 008-010-012.

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010-012.

Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ001-005-008.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ002>004-007-010>013.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for VIZ001-002.

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ001-002.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM AST this afternoon for VIZ002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Saturday for AMZ711.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for AMZ723-741.