Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Candelaria Arenas, PR

FXCA62 TJSJ 222054 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 454 PM AST Wed Jan 22 2025

SYNOPSIS

A trade wind perturbation will gradually increase the frequency of showers late tonight into early Thursday morning. Ponding of water in roads and poorly drained areas are likely across windward coastal areas of the islands. Choppy wind- driven to hazardous seas will persist for most of the workweek, maintaining dangerous conditions for small craft and promoting life- threatening rip currents.

SHORT TERM FORECAST
Tonight through Friday...

This morning, showers affected the eastern half of Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, Saint Thomas, and Saint John, with rainfall amounts ranging from 0.01 to 0.30 inches. Winds remained around 5 to 15 mph, with occasional higher gusts near coastal areas. Some weather stations even reported wind gusts in the upper 20s and lower 30s. Temperature-wise, they stayed in the 80s to low 90s along the coastal/urban areas, while in mountainous/rural areas, they were in the 70s.

As we move into the overnight hours, rainfall activity is expected to increase gradually. A perturbation in the trade winds will move through the forecast area, with model guidance indicating precipitable water values between 1.4 and 1.7 inches (above normal values for this time of the year). The highest moisture content will remain concentrated below or near the 700mb level through early Thursday. At this time, we foresee ponding of water in roads and poorly drained areas.

By the end of the workweek, we anticipate a slight improvement in weather conditions as some dry air begins to filter into the region.
However, expect mostly variable weather through the remainder of the short-term forecast period as a high-pressure system dominates the region, and the easterly winds continue to bring somewhat breezy conditions. Therefore, residents can expect mostly partly cloudy skies with occasional light to moderate showers across eastern sections of Puerto Rico.

LONG TERM
Saturday through Wednesday...

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 459 AM AST Wed Jan 22 2025/

A deep-layered ridge is expected to persist over the Tropical Atlantic throughout the long-term period. A short-wave trough is expected to cause a brief weakness aloft over the region on Sunday, and a pre-frontal trough is expected to develop mainly north of the region during the weekend. Another upper level trough is expected to move over the area on Tuesday, and the 500 mb temperatures are forecast to drop near -7C. However, the precipitable water content is forecast to remain at normal to below normal levels through the entire forecast period, and showers across the area will be driven mostly by the remnants of old frontal boundaries that the trade winds will carry from time to time.

Normal to above-normal temperatures are expected to prevail throughout most of the long-term period, particularly in the coastal and lower elevations of the islands. Daytime highs will range from the mid to upper 80s and low 90s in coastal and urban areas, while the mountains will experience highs in the mid to upper 70s. Minimum temperatures will range from the low 60s in the higher elevations to the mid and upper 70s in the lower elevations of the islands.

AVIATION
(18z TAFs)

VFR conditions will persist across the TAF sites during the period. Winds will continue to be variable at the eastern sites, on TIST & TJSJ as the wind perturbation moves north of the region.
Winds will diminish at around 2223Z, increasing again at 2315Z for all the sites. VCSH to SHRA are forecast between 2223-2310Z, lowering ceilings and reducing the VIS in some isolated areas.

MARINE

A surface high pressure across the central Atlantic will support moderate to locally fresh easterlies for the next several days.
Choppy wind-driven to hazardous seas for small craft will continue across portions of most local waters and passages. Small craft advisory conditions are likely to continue through the end of the week for some offshore areas.

BEACH FORECAST

Windy conditions across the region will continue to promote life threatening rip currents, especially along the northern and eastern exposed beaches of the islands. Elsewhere, the risk of rip currents will be moderate. These conditions are expected to persist at least through the end of the workweek.
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