Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Candelaria Arenas, PR

.Short Term(Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 449 AM AST Tue Mar 3 2026

A patch of moisture and cloudiness moved over the region during the overnight hours under the up to breezy ESE steering flow. Since midnight, radar estimated rainfall accumulations indicate 0.16 to 0.65 in over southeastern to eastern PR, and minimal accumulations over southern St. Croix, St. John, southern PR and the western half of PR. Stations over interior PR reported lows in the low to mid 60s while stations over lower elevations of the islands reported lows in the low to upper 70s.

A broad surface high pressure over the western to central Atlantic will promote breezy to windy conditions during the short term period as it tightens the local pressure gradient. This will promote a limited to elevated wind risk over the islands, unsecured items could blow around. Breezy to windy steering flow will gradually back to become more easterly to east-northeasterly late tonight and more east-northeasterly late tomorrow as the surface high pressure continues to build over the western to central Atlantic maintaining a tight pressure gradient. Breezy to windy conditions will remain the dominant feature of the forecast.

These winds will continue to steer patches of moisture and drier air towards the islands today. After the patch of moisture currently over the region moves towards the Mona Passage early this morning, current model guidance and satellite imagery suggests another patch of moisture (with PWAT values up to around 1.2 to 1.4 in) moving over the islands later today. This pattern will result fast- moving showers over the region, mainly over windward areas of the islands during the overnight and morning hours, and brief afternoon showers possibly developing over western Puerto Rico. Most available moisture will remain mainly below 850 mb. 500mb temperatures are forecast to remain relatively warm, limiting vertical shower development. Therefore, widespread flooding risks are not anticipated from the expected weather conditions. However, current model guidance suggests broad patches of moisture reaching the region late tonight into tomorrow, Wednesday (with PWAT values up to 1.80 in), and by Thursday morning (with PWAT values up to 1.70 in), under the E to ENE breezy to windy steering flow. These patches can enhance the the frequency of fast- moving showers over windward areas of the islands, and promote the development of afternoon showers over western Puerto Rico. 925 mb temperatures are forecast at normal values during the period as winds back to become more E to ENE.
Low concentrations of Saharan Dust will continue to filter into the region.

.Long Term(Friday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 449 AM AST Tue Mar 3 2026

A broad and strong surface high pressure system over the western Atlantic will remain the dominant feature through the weekend into early next week, maintaining a tight local pressure gradient before gradually shifting northeast. This pattern will support persistent easterly winds with minor directional variations, ranging from strong breeze to moderate gale at times based on Beaufort scale equivalents. Aloft, a segment of the subtropical jet will extend across the northeastern Caribbean early in the period, followed by a short-wave trough approaching from the northeast. The trough is expected to linger west of the area near Hispaniola, promoting gradual cooling aloft and increasingly favorable upper-level conditions into early next week. Moisture will remain somewhat fragmented on Friday but will consolidate Friday night into the weekend, with above-normal precipitable water lingering through Monday before drier air filters in by Tuesday.

From a hazards perspective, breezy to windy conditions will remain the primary concern, particularly across coastal and exposed areas, contributing to hazardous marine and beach conditions. Although periods of above-normal low-level moisture may increase the frequency of passing showers, persistent mid-level dryness should limit vertical development and rainfall efficiency. As a result, showers are expected to be mostly fast-moving, with brief moderate rainfall possible across windward areas during the overnight and morning hours and isolated afternoon activity over interior and western Puerto Rico. Widespread flooding is not anticipated; however, localized ponding in poor drainage areas cannot be ruled out. A gradual drying trend by Tuesday should further reduce shower coverage, while breezy conditions and hazardous seas may persist.
Overall, wind and marine hazards will remain the dominant impacts through the period.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 449 AM AST Tue Mar 3 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will continue. However periods of fast moving trade wind VCSH/-SHRA will continue to affect the terminals at times. Breezy to locally windy ESE flow, mainly at 12 to 20 kts with higher gusts. Afternoon, between 03/16-23z, showers are possible mainly over interior to W-NW Puerto Rico. Winds decreasing after 01/23z to 5 to 15 kts with higher gusts while gradually backing to become more E to ENE.

MARINE
Issued at 449 AM AST Tue Mar 3 2026

A surface high-pressure system over the central Atlantic, along with another building over the north western Atlantic, will promote fresh to locally strong east to northeasterly winds throughout the forecast period. These conditions will maintain choppy to rough seas.
Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the offshore Atlantic and Caribbean waters, the Mona Passage, and the Anegada Passage. Small craft operators should exercise caution across all coastal waters and continue to monitor the forecast for any update or adjustments.

BEACH FORECAST
Issued at 449 AM AST Tue Mar 3 2026

A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents is in effect today for most local beaches due to breezy to windy coastal conditions.
Similar conditions are expected on Tuesday. By Wednesday and continuing into next weekend, beach conditions are forecast to deteriorate further, increasing the likelihood of life-threatening rip currents. Confused seas driven by strong trade winds, combined with the arrival of a northeast to easterly wind swell, will likely elevate the risk to high for the northern and eastern beaches of the islands. For additional information and location-specific rip current details, please visit: weather.gov/beach/sju.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Friday for AMZ711-723-733- 741.

Small Craft Advisory from noon Wednesday to 6 AM AST Friday for AMZ712.