Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Candelaria Arenas, PR

SHORT TERM
Tonight through Thursday...

A weak front moved across the islands today causing mostly light showers and partly cloudy skies. The Doppler radar estimated up to a quarter of an inch of rain in Fajardo and San Juan to a few hundredths across central Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Maximum temperatures were in the low to mid-80s across the western and northern coastal sections of the islands, to the mid and upper 80s across the southern coastal areas.

The 14/12z TJSJ sounding indicated the best moisture content near the surface, and plenty of drier air above 850mb as the mid-to upper- level ridge continues to build over the area from the western Caribbean. This is why fair weather conditions prevailed regardless of the frontal passage and the best moisture associated to the front has stayed over the Anegada Passage and the Leeward Islands.
However, some low-level cloudiness and passing showers will remain possible across the USVI through the early evening hours.

For the rest of the short-term period, a ridge aloft and a building surface high over the western Atlantic behind the front will promote breezy conditions and drier air aloft with the best moisture content confined near the surface. Therefore, cooler temperatures are expected in general under northeasterly winds. In terms of precipitation, a shallow advective weather pattern should prevail with minor rainfall accumulations expected during the night/early morning hours across the windward areas of the islands.

LONG TERM
Friday through Tuesday...

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 508 AM AST Tue Jan 14 2025/

The low to mid-level ridge is expected to shift east-northeast of the northern Leewards early in the cycle, allowing the trade wind cap to relax over the weekend. At the same time, the remnants of a frontal system south of the forecast area will move northwestward over the local islands, increasing moisture convergence across the northeastern Caribbean. Precipitable water values are expected to increase to near-normal levels on Friday and above-normal levels through the weekend.

The combination of increased vertical mixing and enhanced moisture content will support shallow convection across the region. During the morning hours of the weekend, showery weather could affect windward coastal areas of the islands, while local effects and sea breeze convergence may promote showers across the interior and western portions of Puerto Rico in the afternoon. Warmer-than-normal temperatures are also expected during this period as an east- southeast wind flow develops, particularly on Sunday.

By Monday, the 500 mb ridge is forecast to move over the islands, promoting drier air intrusion and stable conditions once again.
However, model guidance suggests the development of a mid-to upper- level cut-off low on the southern edge of the ridge, which could approach the area by Tuesday. Nonetheless, forecast confidence remains low, as its location continues to vary with each model cycle.

AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals during the next 24 hours. Brief BKN cigs possible at TISX thru 14/22z. The latest SJU sounding indicated NNE winds up to 20 kt blo FL040.

MARINE

Moderate to fresh northeast winds this evening through midweek as the surface high pressure across the western Atlantic moves eastward while tightening its pressure gradient across the northern Caribbean. Additional pulses of a long-period northerly swell are expected to reach the regional waters tonight. The combination of wind-driven seas and the long-period northerly swell will deteriorate marine conditions, becoming hazardous for small craft, as they spread across the Atlantic waters and local passages during the next few days.

BEACH FORECAST

The combination of wind-driven seas and a long-period northerly swell is expected to create hazardous marine and coastal conditions over the next few days across the Atlantic waters, local Caribbean passages, and the northern and northwestern coasts of Puerto Rico, Culebra, St. Thomas, and St. John. These conditions will pose significant risks for coastal activities. The northern and northwestern coasts face a High Risk of Rip Currents, with breaking waves ranging from 5 to 7 feet and occasionally higher. By this evening, these waves are forecast to increase to 10 to 12 feet, especially along the northern coastline, persisting through Wednesday. A High Surf Advisory has been issued for the northern coast of Puerto Rico, Culebra, St.
Thomas, and St. John, effective from this evening through Wednesday afternoon. Breaking waves up to 10 to 12 feet will lead to dangerous surf conditions, potentially causing coastal erosion and localized flooding in vulnerable areas.

Residents and visitors in affected regions should heed warnings, avoid swimming in these waters, and stay informed about updates from local authorities.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010-012.

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST Wednesday for PRZ001-002-005- 008-012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for VIZ001.

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST Wednesday for VIZ001.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST Thursday for AMZ711.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST Thursday for AMZ712-716-723- 741.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 AM AST Thursday for AMZ742.