SHORT TERM
Tonight through Saturday...

Sunny to partly cloudy skies prevailed during the morning hours.
Passing showers were seen over the local waters and over the windward side of the islands during the early morning hours.
However, no significant rainfall accumulations accumulations were seen. Later in the afternoon, showers and thunderstorms started to develop along the interior toward the northwestern municipalities of Puerto Rico. Flood Advisories were issued for these areas. The municipalities from Barceloneta to Quebradillas, and from Lares to Moca received between 1.0 to 2.0 inches of rain estimated by radar.
This shower activity has moved over the waters and will continue to dissipate before sunset.

A weakening TUTT will be replaced by a mid to upper level ridge.
Therefore, more stable conditions will be observed across the region the next several days. Nonetheless, southeasterly winds in combination with daytime heating and local effects will result in convective activity across the interior and northwest Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours. By Friday afternoon into Saturday,an increase in moisture is expected with precipitable water values of 2.2 inches. This is due to the approach of a passing tropical wave, Invest 94L, being monitored by the National Hurricane Center. Expect an increase in shower activity along with isolated thunderstorms across the islands during the overnight hours.
Ponding of water in roads and low drainage areas, and minor flooding is possible with the strongest showers. By Saturday afternoon, a gradual improvement on weather conditions is expected with the arrival of a much drier airmass.

Hot conditions are likely to continue for the next several days with with elevated heat threat. Highs will reach the upper 80s to low 90s along the coastal and urban areas. Residents and visitors should take precautions to stay hydrated by drinking plenty of water, wearing light and breathable clothing, and avoiding prolonged exposure to the sun, especially during peak heat hours.


LONG TERM
Sunday through Thursday....

A variable weather pattern is expected to persist over the long term. A broad mid-to-upper-level ridge will enhance subsidence, drier conditions aloft, and more stable atmospheric conditions.
While this will suppress significant convective development, a deep layer of tropical moisture will remain in place, supported by a southeasterly wind flow generated by a surface high-pressure system over the central Atlantic. Global model guidance indicates precipitable water values exceeding 2 inches associated with Invest 92L, particularly from Sunday into early Monday. Despite the overall stability of the aloft, this tropical moisture, the local and diurnal effects will support localized convection, especially for the interior and northwestern sections, including the San Juan Metro area. Therefore, the forecast calls for a wet pattern on Sunday, with widespread afternoon activity and isolated to scattered thunderstorms, as The Galvez-Davison Index (GDI)
suggests. Given the already saturated soils and additional rainfall, urban and small-stream flooding is likely in vulnerable areas.

By Monday, a slightly drier air mass will begin to filter in as the moisture associated with the disturbance shifts northwestward and the surface ridge migrates farther into the western Atlantic.
This will lead to a drier and more variable weather pattern characterized by warmer daytime temperatures. However, sufficient diurnal heating combined with lingering low-level moisture will continue to support afternoon convection, particularly across the interior, where local convergence and the diurnal heating could enhance shower activity.



AVIATION
(18z)

VFR conds expected to prevail through the forecast period. SHRA/TSRA should generally dissipate over land areas by 12/23Z, resulting in SKC to mstly SCT lyrs nr FL025...FL050, with a few VCSH possible.
Passing SHRA will be around USVI terminals and regional waters overnight but no sig operational wx impacts. Winds will become lgt/vrb to calm aft 12/22Z, but fcst to pick up again by 13/14Z, out of the ESE around 10-15 knots with stronger gusts and sea breeze variations durg the day.

MARINE

A weak surface high pressure pattern persists across the western Atlantic. This will promote gentle to moderate easterly winds over the next few days. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will affect the regional waters each afternoon. A tropical wave being monitored by the National Hurricane Center, Invest 94L, will bring active weather conditions from Friday into the upcoming weekend, mainly across the eastern half of the Atlantic and Caribbean waters, and the Anegada Passage.

BEACH FORECAST

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue for the north- central beaches of Puerto Rico through tonight. A low rip current risk is expected throughout the weekend across all local beaches.
Isolated thunderstorms with occasional lightning strikes are expected each day across most coastal areas.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...Heat Advisory until 5 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ001>003-005- 007-008-010>013.

VI...Heat Advisory until 5 PM AST this afternoon for VIZ001-002.

AM...None.