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AMZ742 Coastal Waters Of Northwestern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 431 Am Ast Wed Nov 29 2023
Today..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds.
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Isolated showers.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas around 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds.
Thursday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas around 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds.
Friday..East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Isolated showers.
Saturday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds, subsiding to 8 seconds. Isolated showers.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Isolated showers.

AMZ700 431 Am Ast Wed Nov 29 2023
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... A surface low with associated frontal boundary moving northeastward across the western atlantic and a high pressure ridge north of the region, will promote gentle to moderate easterly winds across the northeast caribbean. Then, another surface high pressure is forecast to build from the western to central atlantic, promoting moderate to locally fresh winds and choppy seas around late Thursday or Friday. Conditions are expected to deteriorate by the end of the week.

FXCA62 TJSJ 290843 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 443 AM AST Wed Nov 29 2023

SYNOPSIS
A mid-to upper-level ridge over the Caribbean basin will continue to promote fair weather conditions across the region through at least Thursday. Drier mid-level air, warm 500 mb temps and stable conditions will result in shallow layer cloud development and occasional light showers during this time. An increase in moisture and winds, as well as deteriorating marine conditions are expected by Friday and into the weekend.

SHORT TERM
Today through Friday...

Minimum temperatures were once again in general between the low to mid 70s across the lower elevations, and from the low to mid 60s across the higher elevations. Little to no rainfall was detected over land areas through the early morning hours. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected to prevail across the islands during today.

A mid-to upper-level ridge over the Caribbean basin will continue to promote fair weather conditions across the region through at least Thursday. Drier mid-level air, warm 500 mb temps, and overall stable conditions are expected to inhibit shower development across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands during the next few days. Shallow layer cloud development and light showers are expected at times through this period. By Friday, a wind surge is expected across the area as a strong low-level ridge is expected to develop over the western Atlantic, while an upper level trough and associated frontal boundary brings an increase in moisture content from the Atlantic waters. Therefore, isolated to scattered showers should increase on Friday across the area.

LONG TERM
Saturday through Tuesday...

Little changes to the long term forecast. Current model suggest an increase in moisture, to normal precipitable water (PWAT) values, to start the weekend. According to current model guidance, the driest period would be on Sunday evening to early Monday morning, as a dry patch moves over the region, lowering PWAT values to below normal. A mid level ridge will move westward and weaken to start the period, strengthening again by the end of the period. At surface level, a high pressure will be established north of the islands over the western to central Atlantic, gradually moving eastward through the period, and being more confined to the tropical Atlantic. Most available moisture should remain below 800 mb. Slightly more humid air aloft is present Friday and Saturday, as a nearby polar trough and a lower level weak front approaches the region. For Sunday onwards, drier air is forecast aloft. East-northeast winds are forecast for the weekend, becoming more easterly to start the next workweek. As moisture increases the chance of passing showers across windward sectors of the islands will increase, as well as afternoon convection, fueled by local effects. For the weekend, afternoon convection should affect interior to western/southwestern Puerto Rico, under east-northeast winds.

AVIATION
Mainly VFR conditions are expected across all terminals during the next 24 hours. Winds from the east increasing after 29/14z between 10 and 15 knots with sea breeze variations.

MARINE

CARICOOS buoys are currently reporting seas of 2-3 ft across nearshore waters. A surface low with associated frontal boundary moving northeastward across the Western Atlantic and a high pressure ridge north of the region, will promote gentle to moderate easterly winds across the Northeast Caribbean. Then, another surface high pressure is forecast to build from the western to central Atlantic, promoting moderate to locally fresh winds and choppy seas around late Thursday or Friday. Seas will be up to 5 ft before conditions deteriorate by the end of the workweek due to the arrival of a northerly swell and increasing trade winds.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents for the northern coastline of Puerto Rico, from Rincon to Fajardo, and Culebra, as well as for northwestern St. Thomas. Low risk elsewhere.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.

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