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PHZ121 Alenuihaha Channel- 947 Am Hst Fri Dec 8 2023
Rest of today..East winds 15 knots. Wind waves to 5 feet. Northwest swell 4 feet. Scattered showers late this morning.
Tonight..East winds 15 knots. Wind waves to 4 feet. Northwest swell 6 feet. Isolated showers after midnight.
Saturday..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves to 4 feet. Northwest swell 8 feet.
Saturday night..East winds to 25 knots. Wind waves to 5 feet. Northwest swell 7 feet. Isolated showers in the evening. Scattered showers after midnight.
Sunday..East winds to 25 knots. Wind waves to 5 feet. Northwest swell 7 feet. Isolated showers.
Sunday night..East winds to 25 knots. Wind waves to 5 feet. Northwest swell 6 feet. Isolated showers.
Monday..East winds to 25 knots. Wind waves around 5 feet. Northwest swell 4 to 5 feet. Isolated showers.
Tuesday..Northeast winds to 30 knots. Wind waves 7 to 9 feet. Northwest swell 7 to 9 feet. Isolated showers.

PHZ100 947 Am Hst Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. A weak cold front approaching from the northwest will bring light and variable winds through Saturday morning. An incoming northwest swell will bring seas in excess of 10 feet to the northern coastal waters Friday night and Saturday mornning. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are expected to return Monday.

FXHW60 PHFO 081948 AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 948 AM HST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
Mostly dry weather will persist for the next couple of days, but a weak front may bring some showers to Kauai late tonight. Light and variable winds will continue into Saturday, with moderate to locally breezy trade winds developing later in the weekend. Strong northeast trade winds may develop on Tuesday, bringing an increase in windward showers through Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

A front approaching from the NW has significantly loosened the low- level pressure gradient as the parent lows have forced our trade- wind-supporting high far NE of the area. With a surface ridge just NE of the islands, light and variable winds prevail over land, with low-level flow favoring a WSW direction over Kauai and Oahu, and ESE direction near Maui and the Big Island. A narrow and weak cloud band extending N from Molokai marks where this flow is weakly convergent, producing just a few showers. Otherwise a mostly dry regime persists, with radar showing a few small showers over near shore waters, and over windward and SE portions of Maui and the Big Island. Light showers that had been quite persistent along the Hana coastline have eased this morning. Land breezes elsewhere have kept any showers from moving ashore overnight.

Afternoon sea breezes will likely drive the formation of a few interior clouds today, with just a few showers expected. Little overall change is expected for most areas tonight as the slowing and weakening front draws closer to Kauai, where it may bring a modest increase in clouds and showers. As the front dissipates near Kauai on Saturday, a weak high passing N of the area will support a mostly dry, moderate to locally breezy trade wind flow into Monday.

A new high building far NW of the area Tuesday may lead to increased NE trade winds, and may also push increased low-level moisture (from the remnants of a front) over windward areas. Forecast models have yet to agree on a unified solution as to the timing and extent of the moisture increase Trade wind flow appears to be the most likely outcome for the second half of next week.

AVIATION

Surface ridging ahead of an approaching cold front is keeping background winds light across the islands early this morning, though the light winds are favoring an east-southeasterly direction across the eastern end of the state. This is allowing some isolated showers to move into east and southeast sections of the Big Island, but prevailing land breezes are keeping skies mostly cloud- and shower-free across the remaining islands.

With the weak winds remaining in place today, expect land breezes to linger through mid-morning before sea breezes begin to develop across the islands. Interior cloud cover will therefore increase during the afternoon, but moisture will be limited so showers will be isolated at best. VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail at most locations throughout the forecast period. Looking ahead, as the front approaches Kauai Friday night into early Saturday, an increase in showers and clouds can be expected over the western end of the state.

There are currently no AIRMETs in effect. However, model guidance shows that upper level turbulence will increase across the islands from west to east later today and tonight as an upper trough moves through. AIRMET Tango for moderate upper level turbulence is likely to be needed by late this afternoon or early evening.

MARINE

A weakening cold front is over the northwest offshore waters this morning and continuing a slow trek towards the coastal waters.
Winds south of the Big Island remain out of the east, but are on the lighter side. Elsewhere over the coastal and offshore waters, winds are light and southerly.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the northwest offshore waters in association with the front through tonight. By tomorrow, the main focus for thunderstorms associated with the system will lift to the north outside the offshore waters.

The front is expected to continue to weaken as it edges closer to the coastal waters, with the front dissipating by Sunday morning.
This will allow high pressure to the north-northeast of the area to bring moderate to locally fresh trade winds back to the coastal waters on Monday. This will bring Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds back to the typical windier waters near Maui County and the Big Island.

An incoming medium-period northwest swell is expected to reach the islands today, slowing building surf late in the day and overnight, peaking at advisory levels tomorrow. Surf is expected to remain on the smaller side today for north and west facing shores, with advisory level surf expected overnight night. Will be monitoring the arrival of the swell today, and anticipate issuing a High Surf Advisory as part of the afternoon package. This swell is currently expected to raise seas over some of the coastal waters above the 10 feet SCA level tonight and tomorrow.

As this swell subsides Saturday night and Sunday, a brief north swell impulse will arrive Sunday night, which will maintain elevated surf levels. A larger, medium-period northwest swell is expected to arrive Tuesday, raising surf to advisory levels for into Thursday. As trade winds return Sunday, expect surf along east facing shores to being rough and choppy. Along south facing shores, only small background swell energy is expected through the forecast period.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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