Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Manele, HI

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manele, HI

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Area Discussion for - Honolulu, HI

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FXHW60 PHFO 050124 AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 324 PM HST Sun Jun 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
Gentle to locally moderate trade winds through Monday with localized leeward diurnal land and sea breezes. Trades slightly increased Tuesday and Wednesday, the become breezy Thursday into next weekend. Trades will occasionally push in low clouds and showers, but no significant rain is expected over the next week.

DISCUSSION
High pressure systems far to the northeast and west northwest are separated by a front passing north of Hawaii. The resulting weak pressure gradient will drive gentle to locally moderate trade winds through Monday. Water vapor imagery shows a broad upper trough just west of Kauai. The subtropical jet along the eastern flank of the jet will bring some high clouds across the Big Island this evening, but is expected to move off to the east Monday.
Radar and visible satellite show some low clouds and showers across leeward and interior sections of the all of the islands late this afternoon.

Local land breezes tonight will suppress shower activity except along the windward sides where the trades may still move a few showers in at times. Monday will be a repeat of today with sea breezes and interior clouds and showers. Dew points and temperatures will remain near average, but will continue to gradually climb as summer approaches.

The synoptic pattern changes very little Tuesday and Wednesday aside from the front to the north stalling and slowly weakening, allowing the high pressure systems to move in slightly stronger trade winds, resulting in cloudier windward and sunnier leeward areas. Breezy trade winds will finally begin to fill in late Thursday through next weekend as the high to the west-northwest advances eastward. The upper trough will retreat westward and be replaced by riding aloft around the same time bringing us dry and stable weather.

AVIATION
A frontal system north of the area has disrupted the ridge, weakening the trade winds over the islands. Expect these lighter trades to persist, with winds light enough to produce some afternoon sea breezes again on Monday. While the trade wind flow will bring showers into the windward sides of the island, any afternoon sea breezes will help clouds to develop over the interior and leeward areas. A slightly than normal trade wind inversion is allowing some of the showers to be heavier than normal. Overall VFR conditions are expected to prevail, however some brief MVFR conditions are possible in heavier showers.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for tempo moderate turbulence across the state between FL250 and FL350 due to an upper level jet over the islands. The jet is weakening, and model data suggests that turbulence within this area is dissipating.
Anticipate dropping the AIRMET later this evening.

MARINE
Light to moderate easterly trade winds will continue through midweek as weak front pushes the ridge south and dissipates.
Despite the lighter winds, expect localized pockets of fresh breezes to develop near the coasts and over the windier locations, especially during the late morning and afternoon hours due to a combination of the orientation of the terrain, wind direction, and heating. Guidance shows a return of fresh to strong easterly trades by the end of the week as a high builds north of the area and tracks east.

Surf along south facing shores will see a small bump tomorrow afternoon as a mix of background long- period south- southwest and south-southeast swells rolling through. As these sources fade by Thursday, another small background south- southwest swell is expected by Friday into next weekend.

Surf along north facing shores will remain tiny to nearly flat through the first half of the week. Although guidance does show a decent out of season northwest swell arriving late Wednesday, confidence is low due to the source quickly lifting north- northeast over the far northwest Pacific through tonight.

Surf along east facing shores will remain small through Thursday and gradually pick up Friday into the weekend as strong trades return.



HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Wind History for Honolulu, HI

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Wind History from HNY (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Kaumalapau, Lanai Island, Hawaii

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