Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Manele, HI

DISCUSSION
A surface trough between Oahu and Kauai last night has dissipated across local waters. Overall shower activity has declined over the past 12 hours, and current radar and satellite loops show scattered low clouds to clear skies across most areas this morning. Rainfall has become quite sparse. Patchy broken low clouds are noted across waters upwind from Maui and the Big Island.

Models show that light to locally moderate easterly trade winds will fill in across the state through today and persist through the weekend. That said, winds will likely remain light enough across the state to allow development of localized sea breezes during the afternoon. This hybrid pattern of redeveloping trades and sea breezes will support isolated to scattered showers across windward and mauka areas this morning and tonight with additional isolated showers over island interiors in the afternoon.
Strengthening trades on Sunday may hinder sea breeze development, but they may still occur across sheltered leeward areas.

Another front will approach from the northwest today through Sunday. Models continue to show its tail end dissipating before it reaches the state, but remnant moisture will move in on the strengthening trades early next week as high pressure strengthens to the north. These breezy to strong trades will persist through the week and into next weekend. As pockets of moisture ride in on the trades, periodic showers will favor windward and mauka areas.

AVIATION
Expect mostly dry and stable conditions across the islands today with a weak trough to the northeast and an incoming front to the northwest. Light winds across the region will allow local sea breezes to develop across sheltered locations in the afternoon with land breezes developing overnight. Will see predominately VFR conditions today with isolated showers and low clouds. The exception will be Kauai which will see areas of MVFR continue through the morning hours as residual moisture lingers over the island. AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for tempo mountain obscuration across windward Kauai, with conditions improving later this morning.

Will see a return of moderate to breezy trade wind conditions by early next week.

MARINE
Trade winds will show weakening trends through Sunday morning with land and sea breeze areas expanding over the near shore waters of each island. A strong high pressure system building in north of the state will cause trade wind speeds to strengthen to moderate levels by Sunday afternoon, then becoming fresh to strong trade winds from Monday night through the end of next week.

Another northwest (330 deg) swell will move through island waters later today keeping surf heights elevated along exposed north and west facing shores. The next northwest swell will move into the Hawaii region from Monday into Tuesday. The High Surf Advisory (HSA) will continue through this afternoon as the next swell will rapidly move into the islands and increase surf heights along exposed north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, and north facing shores of Maui. Surf heights will likely decline with surf heights falling below HSA levels by tonight.

Elsewhere, a small south swell will continue through this weekend, and then diminish early next week.

FIRE WEATHER
Critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated. Wind speeds will remain far below that needed for critical fire danger. Trade winds will strengthen next week, but relative humidity values will be high enough to continue to preclude any critical fire weather conditions.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Niihau-Kauai Leeward-Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Maui Windward West-Kauai North-Molokai Windward-Molokai North-Molokai West-Windward Haleakala.