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PHZ119 Maalaea Bay- 1001 Am Hst Tue Nov 28 2023
Rest of today..Southwest winds 10 knots. Wind waves to 2 feet or less. Scattered showers.
Tonight..Winds variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves to 2 feet or less. Scattered showers.
Wednesday..Winds variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves to 2 feet or less. Heavy showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Winds variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves to 2 feet or less. Heavy showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 knots in the morning, becoming variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves to 2 feet or less. Heavy showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Winds variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves to 2 feet or less. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..Winds variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves around 2 feet or less. SWell 2 feet or less. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Winds variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves around 2 feet or less. SWell 2 feet or less. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

PHZ100 1001 Am Hst Tue Nov 28 2023
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. A kona low currently located in the northwest offshore waters will bring southerly winds and the potential for Thunderstorms through the week.

FXHW60 PHFO 281920 AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 920 AM HST Tue Nov 28 2023

SYNOPSIS
A kona low to the northwest of the islands is bringing southerly winds and showers to the region. The atmosphere is becoming more unsettled, with heavy rain and thunderstorms possible through Friday. The greatest chance will be on Kauai and Oahu today, but spread to the remainder of the state on Wednesday. Shower coverage will gradually diminish Friday through the weekend, though the potential for locally heavy showers may continue as the associated upper level low lingers.

DISCUSSION
A kona low has developed to the northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands, with an associated upper level low to the northwest of the surface low helping to bring an unstable airmass to the region. Thunderstorms have been observed to the west of Kauai in the offshore waters, but the potential for thunderstorms to form over and near Niihau, Kauai and Oahu today. The surface low is expected to lift to the north-northeast over the next 24 hours, and then stall for a period of time. Meanwhile the associated upper level feature is expected to strengthen and move towards the islands, spreading the unstable airmass to the east to Maui County and the Big Island. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for Kauai County and Oahu today, with the watch expanded to include Maui County and the Big Island Wednesday morning.

So far this morning, showers are moving over Kauai and Oahu from the south with rainfall rates mostly under 1 inch per hour, however a couple heavier showers have quickly moved through with rates just over 1 inch per hour. As the surface and upper level lows become more aligned in over the next 24 hours, we can expect to see heavier showers and thunderstorms over and near the islands.

Showers will be possible over Maui County and the Big Island today, but as mentioned above, the potential for heavier showers and thunderstorms is expected to reach those areas on Wednesday and persist statewide through at least Thursday. By Friday, the surface low begins to move to the southwest and weaken, while the upper level low lifts to the north. We should begin to see a decrease in shower activity, however details are still being hammered out in the various model runs. In part depending on the amount of rain we receive between now and then, the potential exists to extend the Flash Flood Watch. Over the weekend, the surface and upper level lows decouple, which should lead to a gradual decline in shower activity. However with the upper level low expected to remain in the general vicinity, the potential remains for some heavier showers and thunderstorms.

Winds are expected to remain southerly and light through the remainder of the week. Stronger winds are possible near any thunderstorms that do develop, but the main concern from this event is the flooding potential. Winds are expected to shift to a more southeasterly direction during the second half of the week, before becoming light and variable over the weekend.



AVIATION
Winds will continue to veer southerly as a kona low continues to develop west of the state. Expect shower coverage to increase across Kauai and Oahu this morning then spread to the remaining islands through the rest of the day and tonight. MVFR or lower conditions will accompany the rise in shower coverage and intensity. Unsettled weather, including the chance of thunderstorms over the entire area, will continue for the next several days.

AIRMET Sierra for tempo mountain obscuration remains in effect for Kauai and Oahu this morning and may need to be issued for the remaining smaller islands today as showers increase. AIRMET Tango for tempo moderate turbulence between FL200-300 remains is in effect as well, due to the continued presence of a jet stream exit region over the state. Tempo light icing in the layered clouds will remain an issue across the islands for the near future as well.

MARINE
A kona low located northwest of Kauai and surface high pressure far north- northeast of the state will produce moderate to fresh east to southeast flow across the waters. As the kona low matures and slowly tracks southwest, winds will become more southerly tonight and Wednesday. Winds will gradually weaken Thursday becoming mainly light and variable Friday into the weekend as kona low weakens to a broad trough over the state and surface ridge develops to the north.

Isolated thunderstorms have continued through the night for the waters northwest of Kauai near the upper level low. Chance for thunderstorms will continue over the northwest offshore and coastal waters today, becoming area wide Wednesday through the end of the week.

The current medium period north-northwest swell will continue to subside through the day. A new small to moderate, medium period northwest (320 degree) swell generated by the nearby kona low is expected to arrive Wednesday, resulting in a rise of surf along exposed north and west facing shores that will persist through Friday. Expect choppy conditions along south facing shores due to persistent southerly flow mixed with small, long period south- southwest swells through the week. Surf along east facing shores is expected to remain below average also due to persistent southeasterly flow.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for Niihau-Kauai Leeward- Kauai Mountains-Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Olomana-Central Oahu-Waianae Mountains-Kauai North-Kauai East-Kauai South-East Honolulu-Honolulu Metro-Ewa Plain-Koolau Windward-Koolau Leeward.

Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon for Lanai Mauka-Kahoolawe-Maui Windward West-Maui Leeward West- Haleakala Summit-Kona-Kohala-Big Island Interior-Big Island Summits-Molokai-Lanai Windward-Lanai Leeward-Lanai South-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Windward Haleakala-Kipahulu-South Maui/Upcountry-South Haleakala-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island East-Big Island North.

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Kihei
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Tue -- 04:47 AM HST     2.75 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:43 AM HST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:10 AM HST     Moonset
Tue -- 11:56 AM HST     0.36 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:38 PM HST     0.84 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:43 PM HST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:03 PM HST     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:44 PM HST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kihei, Maui (Hawaii), Tide feet

Kahului
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Tue -- 03:27 AM HST     2.91 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:44 AM HST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:10 AM HST     Moonset
Tue -- 10:06 AM HST     1.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:46 PM HST     1.38 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:43 PM HST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:03 PM HST     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:24 PM HST     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kahului, Kahului Harbor, Hawaii, Tide feet

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