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PHZ122 Big Island Windward Waters- 308 Pm Hst Fri Dec 1 2023
Tonight..Southeast winds 20 knots. Wind waves to 6 feet. Northwest swell 3 feet. Isolated showers.
Saturday..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves to 5 feet. Northwest swell 3 feet. A slight chance of Thunderstorms with isolated showers.
Saturday night..East winds 15 knots. Wind waves to 5 feet. Northwest swell 5 feet. Isolated showers.
Sunday..East winds 15 knots. Wind waves to 4 feet. Northwest swell 6 feet. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..East winds 15 knots. Wind waves to 4 feet. Northwest swell 6 feet. Scattered showers.
Monday..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves to 4 feet. Northwest swell 6 feet. Scattered showers, mainly in the morning.
Monday night..Northeast winds 20 knots. Wind waves to 5 feet. Northwest swell 9 feet. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight.
Tuesday..East winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 5 to 6 feet. North swell 8 to 9 feet. Scattered showers.
Wednesday..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves around 5 feet. North swell 7 feet. Scattered showers.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

PHZ100 308 Pm Hst Fri Dec 1 2023
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. A kona low west-northwest of the hawaiian islands will continue to produce southeast to south winds with bands of showers, and isolated Thunderstorms are still a possibility. The kona low will weaken this weekend as the ridge builds in north of the islands. Expect gentle to fresh trade winds spreading across the region from Saturday to Sunday, strengthening to fresh to strong trade winds from Monday onward.

FXHW60 PHFO 020620 AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 820 PM HST Fri Dec 1 2023

SYNOPSIS
The kona low will weaken into a trough west of the state tonight, with some lingering moisture and instability bringing the chance for some showers and even a thunderstorm to portions of the state through Saturday. A return to trade wind weather will begin Saturday night, with showers favoring windward slopes and coasts.
The trades will gradually strengthen Sunday and Monday, with breezy conditions expected Tuesday and Wednesday. An approaching front will gradually ease the trade winds and shift them around to the southeast late next week.

DISCUSSION
Currently at the surface, a decaying kona low is located around 450 miles west-northwest of Kauai, while a 1028 mb high is centered around 1600 miles northeast of Honolulu. Light and variable winds prevail over the western islands this evening, while light to moderate east-southeast winds are in place over the eastern half of the state. Infrared satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy skies across the area, with radar imagery showing mainly returns aloft with rain gage observations showing very little rain falling over the past couple hours. Main short term focus revolves around rain chance and thunder potential.

The kona low will gradually weaken into a trough tonight, with ridging building in north of the state. East-southeasterly winds will gradually shift around to light to moderate trades late Saturday, then hold at these levels through Sunday. The trades will begin to strengthen on Monday and become breezy Tuesday and Wednesday as a new high builds in north of the state. The trades will gradually ease and shift southeasterly Thursday through next Friday as a front approaches from the northwest.

As for the remaining weather details, the air mass over the islands has been worked over pretty well with mainly not much more than sprinkles falling across the islands this evening. This rather dry weather should continue through the night in most areas, with the exception of Kauai where some showers and possibly a thunderstorm may work in from the west later tonight. Also, a few showers will be possible along the windward and leeward coasts of the Big Island.

The airmass remains unstable over the state on Saturday, so daytime heating may be enough to allow some showers and perhaps a thunderstorm to develop. By Saturday night, we will be transitioning back to a trade wind pattern featuring mainly windward and mauka showers and the occasional leeward spillover, with this pattern holding in place through Thursday. An approaching front could shift the shower focus to south and southeast facing slopes and coasts next Friday.

AVIATION
As the kona low remains to the northwest of Kauai, the threat for periods of heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms across the state will continue tonight into tomorrow, with periods of MVFR or lower possible with heavier showers. This evening, radar shows the middle islands as the main focus of the light to moderate rainfall, along with some additional showers developing to the west of Kauai. Conditions are expected to gradually improve later in the day tomorrow as the kona low starts to dissipate.

Will continue to see turbulence and icing associated with any TS that develops. AIRMET Tango for moderate mid-level turbulence will continue due to wind shear in the layer between 100-FL270. Light icing in layered clouds between 120-FL270 will also remain a threat through tomorrow. AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration will remain in effect for Maui County islands into tomorrow as the showers continue.

MARINE
The kona low to the west-northwest of the islands will weaken into a trough tonight, with ridging then building in north of the waters over the weekend. Light to moderate east-southeast winds will shift around to an easterly trade wind direction late Saturday, with light to moderate trades then hold in place through the remainder of the weekend. The trades will begin to ramp back up on Monday, with fresh to strong winds expected Tuesday and Wednesday, likely requiring a Small Craft Advisory for at least the typically windy waters around Maui and the Big Island.

The recent small to moderate, medium period northwest (320 degree) swell will gradually decline through Saturday. The next moderate size, longer period northwest (320 degree) swell will arrive and begin to fill in Saturday afternoon and evening. This swell will peak surf to near High Surf Advisory (HSA) heights by Sunday, then slowly subside Monday. A reinforcing north northwest (330-340 degree) swell arriving Monday night may lift surf heights well above HSA thresholds, possibly approaching High Surf Warning levels on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Small surf continues along south facing shores with small background south swell pulses Monday and Thursday. Strengthening trades through next week will build surf heights along east facing shores.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Hilo, Hilo Bay, Kunio Bay, Hawaii Island, Hawaii, Tide feet

Hana
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Fri -- 05:44 AM HST     2.70 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:43 AM HST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:45 AM HST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:50 PM HST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:41 PM HST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:18 PM HST     1.02 feet High Tide
Fri -- 09:50 PM HST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:02 PM HST     0.35 feet Low Tide
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Hana, Maui Island, Hawaii, Tide feet

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