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PHZ116 Kaiwi Channel- 902 Pm Hst Fri Dec 8 2023
Rest of tonight..East winds 10 knots. Wind waves to 4 feet. Northwest swell 8 feet. Isolated showers.
Saturday..East winds 15 knots. Wind waves to 4 feet. Northwest swell 8 feet. Isolated showers.
Saturday night..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves to 5 feet. North swell 8 feet. Isolated showers in the evening. Scattered showers after midnight.
Sunday..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves to 5 feet. North swell 7 feet. Isolated showers.
Sunday night..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves to 5 feet. North swell 6 feet. Isolated showers.
Monday..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves to 5 feet. North swell 5 feet. Isolated showers.
Monday night..Northeast winds 20 knots. Wind waves to 5 feet. North swell 5 feet. Isolated showers.
Tuesday..Northeast winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 6 to 7 feet. Northwest swell 9 to 11 feet. Isolated showers.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 20 knots. Wind waves 5 to 7 feet. North swell 10 to 12 feet. Scattered showers.

PHZ100 902 Pm Hst Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. High pressure passing well north of the islands will bring gradually strengthening trade winds over the weekend as a front near kauai dissipates. A strong high will build northwest of the islands Tuesday and Wednesday.

FXHW60 PHFO 090645 AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 845 PM HST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
Mostly dry weather will persist for the next couple of days, with the exception of a few light showers around Kauai tonight from a weakening front. Light and variable winds will continue into Saturday, with moderate to locally breezy trade winds developing later in the weekend. Strong northeast trade winds may develop on Tuesday, with a potential increase in windward showers through Wednesday through the rest of the week.

DISCUSSION
Visible satellite imagery shows little in the way of low clouds over the majority of the state this evening, with the exception of a few interior cloud build-ups remaining from sea breeze interactions earlier this afternoon. An upper trough advancing through the island chain will have very little influence on local wx through Saturday, other than drawing some high clouds northeastward across the Big Island through tonight. At the surface, an weakening frontal boundary is slowly advancing toward Kauai, bringing with it scattered low clouds and a few showers. The afternoon soundings at Lihue and Hilo were quite dry and will prevent the frontal band from having any significant effect on the local weather as it stalls and dissipates over Kauai tonight. Current observations suggest only a modest increase in shallow, light shower activity over the favored slopes of Kauai. Due to the presence of the dissipating front near Kauai, a land and sea breeze pattern will prevail through Saturday with little change expected during the next 24 hours. Moderate trades will return later this weekend into early next week as weak ridging rebuilds north of the state.

A progressive mid-latitude pattern will ensure the next front reaches (or nearly reaches) the western portion of the island chain by later in the day Monday before dissipating Monday night. Post-frontal high pressure will then strengthen northwest of the state beneath building ridging aloft prior to moving into the local area. This will bring a period of breezy to locally strong northeast trades from Tuesday through middle portion of next week. During this period, both the GFS and ECMWF show varying degrees of remnant moisture from the former front converging over the state, while also disagreeing on exactly where this moisture sets up and if/how far it progresses down the island chain. For now, the forecast reflects a blend of the two solutions, with a modest increase in mainly windward showers for the middle and latter part of next week.

AVIATION
A weakening cold front is approaching Kauai from the northwest this evening, and is expected to stall near the Garden Isle before dissipating on Saturday. As a result, a modest increase in clouds and showers is expected for Kauai tonight into Saturday morning.
AIRMET Sierra for tempo mountain obscuration is in effect for Kauai, and will likely remain in effect through Saturday morning.

Elsewhere, light background winds will allow land breezes to dominate overnight, clearing skies over the remaining islands within a mostly dry regime. By late Saturday morning or early afternoon, sea breezes will resume and increase clouds over island interiors. Regardless, VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail from Oahu through the Big Island throughout the forecast period.

As an upper trough moves over the state tonight, high clouds will stream over the western end of the state. Moderate upper level turbulence is also expected to increase across the islands from west to east throughout the night, exiting east of the state by midday on Saturday. Therefore, AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate upper level turbulence statewide.

MARINE
A moderate-period NW (320 degrees) swell continues to build at NDBC buoys 51001/51101 NW of Kauai (seas up to 10-12 ft), with increasing seas also noted at the near shore PacIOOS Waimea buoy (the Hanalei buoy stopped reporting earlier today). A High Surf Advisory (HSA) is posted for exposed N and W facing shores, with surf expected to peak on Saturday, then gradually becoming more northerly as it slowly diminishes Sunday into Monday. Combined seas will peak near 10 feet in waters around Kauai and Oahu, where a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect. A powerful low in the NW Pacific is generating a WNW swell that is expected to arrive Tuesday and Wednesday, with peak surf heights approaching High Surf Warning levels along exposed shores. This long-lived swell will become more northerly later in the week.

A stalling front near Kauai will dissipate on Saturday as a weak high passes well N of the islands. A surface ridge near the islands will move N and strengthen in response, and trade wind speeds will gradually increase over the weekend, becoming locally fresh by Sunday. This will likely bring SCA-level winds to the typical windier waters near Maui County and the Big Island.
Another front approaching from the NW may lead to a brief weakening of trade wind speeds on Monday, but high pressure building NW of the islands will bring the potential for strong to near-gale NE trade winds Tuesday and possibly Wednesday. With increased seas associated with the aforementioned WNW swell, a SCA will likely be required for all waters.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
High Surf Advisory until 4 AM HST Sunday for Niihau-Kauai Leeward-Oahu North Shore-Kauai North-Molokai Windward-Molokai North-Maui Central Valley North-Windward Haleakala.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM HST Saturday for Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters.

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Hanauma Bay
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Sat -- 01:05 AM HST     1.93 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:52 AM HST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:56 AM HST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:04 AM HST     0.60 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:06 PM HST     0.96 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:23 PM HST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:49 PM HST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:25 PM HST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hanauma Bay, Oahu Island, Hawaii, Tide feet

Honolulu
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Sat -- 02:04 AM HST     1.93 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:53 AM HST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:57 AM HST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:49 AM HST     0.60 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:05 PM HST     0.96 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:24 PM HST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:49 PM HST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:10 PM HST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Honolulu, Oahu (Hawaii), Tide feet

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