DISCUSSION
Stable conditions will hold over the state of Hawaii as the islands are under the axis of weak ridging. A near stationary 1009 mb low approximately 650 miles north northeast of Oahu will be slowly transitioning into an open wave trough as it retrogrades to the west. The low's stalled appendant trough to its south southwest lies just outside Kauai's nearshore waters. This troughing has disrupted the regional pressure field and not conceded to the upstream pressure gradient from surface high pressure located far northwest of the island chain. The result has been a few days of areawide light breezes with localized sea and land breezes becoming the dominant flow. The early morning ASCAT pass has confirmed that light variable winds have become east southeasterly overnight. As the upper level low north of the state (in association with the surface low) opens up into a wave on its slow western trek, today's light southerly flow will evolve into easterly trades that will rebuild back in from east-to-west into Thursday.

A ribbon of higher 700 mb moisture moving up from the south around the southwestern periphery of mid-level ridging northeast of the islands has picked up overnight shower coverage across Big Island.
The majority of the overnight windward rain observations have been under a quarter of an inch with Honolii Stream and Piihonua picking up about an inch. Higher shower chances will occur around Kauai and Niihau through the day due to the better focus afforded by the vicinity trough north northeast of Kauai. The lack of any upper support will have this trough washing out through the day.
In general, mid to upper level ridging will continue to support a fairly stable, dry and warm Central Pacific atmosphere through Thursday. As the low to the north opens up into a trough, broad North Pacific high pressure will exert a greater influence on the region. This will allow strengthened breezy trades to return from Thursday afternoon and persist into the weekend. Higher east mid level moisture advecting into the area Friday through Sunday will increase more areawide rain probabilities. A more typical weekend trade wind pattern, along with a weak tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) developing west of the state, may enhance weekend shower activity. A higher frequency of overnight showers will produce greater rainfall accumulations along windward exposures and at higher elevations. With the exception of afternoon showers along Big Island's Kona slopes, leeward areas should remain relatively dry.



AVIATION
A trough that has stalled near Kauai has disrupted our typical trade wind pattern, and supports the light and variable winds continuing through Wednesday. Expect a gradual clearing trend through the evening hours for the smaller islands, then later tonight over the Big Island as land breezes become established. As a result, the AIRMET Sierra for MTN OBSC on Kauai will likely be dropped later this evening. On Wednesday, expect increasing cloud/shower coverage through the late morning and afternoon hours as sea breezes develop, especially over and around Kauai closer to the trough/moisture axis.



MARINE
Trades should return today and Thursday as a trough continues to move away from the state. Friday through the weekend, fresh to locally strong trades should return and Small Craft Advisories may be needed for the typical windy waters near Maui and the Big Island.

The moderate short to medium-period north (360 to 010 degrees)
swell has peaked and has begun to slowly decline. North shore surf will return to mostly flat levels over the weekend. The return of fresh to strong trades will allow for rough and choppy surf to gradually build back to near normal levels tomorrow through the weekend.

A small long-period southwest swell will continue to produce small inconsistent surf along south facing shores through the rest of today. A slightly larger long-period south-southwest swell could give another small boost over the weekend.



HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.