Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for East Honolulu, HI

SHORT TERM UPDATE
Issued at 833 PM HST Sat Mar 14 2026

Primary update to this evening's forecast is to cancel the Flash Flood Watch for Oahu. Showers have since moved east out of Oahu and all streams and reservoirs are on a downward trend across the island. The remainder of the forecast remains on track, with tonight's focus leaning strongly on Maui County and the Big Island, especially as latest guidance suggests the heaviest rainbands intensifying over the eastern half of the Hawaiian Islands, persisting through much of Sunday before trending down Sunday night.

PREV DISCUSSION

A strong kona low roughly 950 sm north of the state continues to generate moderate to heavy showers within a broad band clouds currently centered over the eastern half of the state. The proximity of this low to the state is generating strong southerly winds that have been producing severe gusts, particularly for the eastern half of the state where a High Wind Warning remains in effect. Winds have eased slightly over the western half of the state thus a High Wind Advisory remains in effect for Kauai and oahu. Drier more stable air is filtering in over Kauai where more scattered clouds with light to moderate showers have been observed. Latest short term model guidance suggests rainfall accumulations will continue to trend down for Kauai thus have cancelled the Flood Watch for Kauai. A narrow band of moderate to heavy showers currently moving over the eastern half of Oahu is merging within a broader band of showers that has been center over Maui County through much of the and and is forecast to intensify overnight due to one last push of upper support. Due to already saturated soils, elevated streams the flooding threat will continue for Oahu through early morning Sunday and through early morning Monday for Maui County and the Big Island.

Sunday and Monday the kona low will shift northeast of the state allowing for an overall trend down in wind speeds and showers.
Very strong, gusty southerly winds will ease to advisory levels over Maui County and the Big Island Sunday night before dropping to light to breezy levels across the state Monday. Thunderstorms will be possible over the Big Island each afternoon Monday due to lingering instability and afternoon convection within a light wind pattern. These light winds will hold through rest of the week. In addition shallow bands of clouds and showers associated the exiting kona low will move through the state generating periods of unsettled wet weather.

AVIATION
Issued at 833 PM HST Sat Mar 14 2026

Low cigs and SHRA continue across the islands this evening and are expect to continue moving eastward. A few TSTMs are ongoing over the Big Island as well. As far as the winds, they have begun to weaken over the western end of the state but still remain gusty in some spots. Over the western end of the state S-SW 30kts or greater with higher gusts are likely through tomorrow.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc from Oahu to the Big Island. It is also in effect for IFR conds for Lanai and the Big Island.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for mod mid-upper level turb between 130 and FL330. It is is also in effect for strong surface winds for Maui and the Big Island, as well as for turb downwind N thru E of terrain statewide. Conds should continue into tomorrow and gradually improve west to east

AIRMET Zulu remains in effect, as high clouds from these showers present icing concerns between 130 and FL260. These conditions are expected to continue into tomorrow.



MARINE

Gale-force winds continue across the central and eastern coastal waters into Sunday as a strong kona storm continues impacting the region. Therefore, a Gale Warning remains in effect for these waters through 6 PM HST Sunday. Elsewhere (for the waters near Kauai and Oahu), a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for both winds and elevated seas greater than 10 feet. Gusty winds, steep and fast seas, and low visibility in heavy showers will continue across all coastal waters through the rest of the weekend. As the winds diminish later on Sunday, the Gale Warning will be replaced with a Small Craft Advisory. Seas will gradually fall as the system moves off to the north.

Strong to gale-force southerly winds will create large and rough surf along south facing shores into Sunday, though recent observations show that surf along south facing shores has declined a bit today, particularly across the western end of the state where winds have decreased. Therefore, the High Surf Advisory has been cancelled. Winds will shift shift westerly and diminish early next week as the storm gains increasing distance far to the north of the islands. Additionally, a small long-period south swell will result in a slight bump in south shore surf Tuesday.

A small, short to medium period west to west-northwest swell will bring small to moderate surf to north and west facing shores through the rest of the weekend. An additional bump in north shore surf is expected on Tuesday. Additionally, a small, medium period north swell will peak this weekend before gradually declining. Another small north swell could arrive late in the week.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Central Oahu-East Honolulu-Ewa Plain-Honolulu Metro-Kauai East-Kauai Mountains- Kauai North-Kauai South-Kauai Southwest-Koolau Leeward-Koolau Windward-Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Olomana-Waianae Coast-Waianae Mountains.

Flood Watch until 6 AM HST Sunday for Central Oahu-East Honolulu- Ewa Plain-Honolulu Metro-Koolau Leeward-Koolau Windward-Oahu North Shore-Olomana-Waianae Coast-Waianae Mountains.

Flood Watch through late Sunday night for Big Island East-Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Haleakala Summit-Kahoolawe-Kipahulu-Kohala-Kona-Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai South-Lanai Windward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West-Maui Windward West-Molokai Leeward South-Molokai North-Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-South Haleakala-South Maui/Upcountry-Windward Haleakala.

High Wind Warning until 6 PM HST Sunday for Big Island East-Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island Summits-Haleakala Summit-Kahoolawe-Kipahulu- Kohala-Kona-Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai South-Lanai Windward- Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West-Maui Windward West-Molokai Leeward South-Molokai North- Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-South Haleakala- South Maui/Upcountry-Windward Haleakala.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM HST Monday for Big Island Summits.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Kauai Channel- Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters.

Gale Warning until 6 PM HST Sunday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.