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PHZ116 Kaiwi Channel- 912 Am Hst Sat Dec 2 2023
Rest of today..East winds 15 knots. Wind waves to 4 feet. Northwest swell 3 feet. Isolated showers.
Tonight..East winds 15 knots. Wind waves to 4 feet. Northwest swell 5 feet. Isolated showers.
Sunday..East winds 15 knots. Wind waves to 4 feet. Northwest swell 7 feet. Isolated showers.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 15 knots. Wind waves to 4 feet. Northwest swell 6 feet. Isolated showers.
Monday..Northeast winds 15 knots. Wind waves to 4 feet. Northwest swell 6 feet. Isolated showers.
Monday night..Northeast winds 20 knots. Wind waves to 5 feet. North swell 11 feet. Isolated showers.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 20 knots. Wind waves 6 to 7 feet. North swell 9 to 11 feet. Isolated showers.
Wednesday..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves 6 to 7 feet. North swell 7 to 8 feet. Isolated showers.

PHZ100 912 Am Hst Sat Dec 2 2023
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. A ridge of high pressure building just north of the state will bring the return of our trade winds today. The trade winds will further strengthen late Monday into Tuesday as a high builds far northwest of the state. A medium northwest swell arriving this afternoon will be followed by larger northwest swell which should quickly fill in late Monday and peak on Tuesday.

FXHW60 PHFO 021953 AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 953 AM HST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
The kona low will weaken into a trough west of the state today, with some lingering moisture and instability bringing the chance for a few brief downpours across the state later today, with a thunderstorm possible mainly for Big Island. A return to trade wind weather will begin Sunday, with showers favoring windward slopes and coasts. The trades will gradually strengthen through Monday, with breezy conditions expected Tuesday and Wednesday. An approaching front will gradually ease the trade winds and shift them around to the southeast late next week.

DISCUSSION
Currently at the surface, a decaying kona low is located around 425 miles west-northwest of Kauai, while a 1029 mb high is centered far to the northeast resulting in light east to east- southeast winds over the state. Visible satellite shows midlevel clouds across Maui and the northern end of the Big Island.
Meanwhile, radar imagery and rain gage observations indicate mainly dry conditions prevail across the state. Main short term focus revolves around rain chance and thunder potential.

The kona low will gradually weaken into a trough today, with ridging building in north of the state. Winds will gradually shift around to light to moderate trades Sunday. The trades will begin to strengthen on Monday and become breezy Tuesday and Wednesday as a new high builds in north of the state. The trades will gradually ease and shift southeasterly Thursday through next Friday as a front approaches from the northwest.

As for the remaining weather details, the air mass over the state will remain somewhat unstable today so daytime heating may be enough to allow some brief downpours to develop across the state, with a low but not zero chance of a thunderstorm with that threat mainly contained on the Big Island. Tonight we will be transitioning back to a trade wind pattern featuring mainly windward and mauka showers and the occasional leeward spillover, with this pattern holding in place through Thursday. An approaching front could shift the shower focus to south and southeast facing slopes and coasts next Friday.

AVIATION
The kona low northwest of Kauai that impacted island weather over the last several days will weaken into a trough today as ridging builds north of the state. Light background winds have resulted in land breezes this morning, keeping skies mostly to partly sunny over the western islands. Remnant moisture has resulted in partly cloudy skies from Maui to northern sections of the Big Island.
Any showers for the rest of the morning will be few and far between with VFR conditions prevailing statewide.

Light to moderate trade winds will build back into the region as the day progresses, and then remain at these levels through Sunday. Lingering moisture and instability will still support the chance for a few showers this afternoon, especially across the western end of the state. Isolated thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over the Big Island slopes during the afternoon, though confidence in this occurring is low. For tonight through Sunday, expect a return of more typical trade wind weather with isolated to scattered showers favoring north through east sections of the islands. VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail for most locations throughout the forecast period.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate mid-level turbulence due to wind shear in the layer between 10,000 and 27,000 feet.
However, based on recent model data and PIREPs, this AIRMET is likely to be cancelled by early afternoon. The mention of light icing will also likely be dropped today as layered clouds have largely diminished from the region.

MARINE
High pressure building north of the state this weekend will allow light to moderate trade winds to return over the coastal and southern offshore waters. Trades are expected to strengthen further late Sunday and into Monday. A new high will build far northwest of the state early next week, which will strengthen the trade winds to strong speeds by Tuesday. Small Craft Advisories will return for the typical windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island on Tuesday and could potentially expand to other areas late Tuesday into Wednesday.

The kona low continues to weaken west of the state, but is still producing some thunderstorms over the northwestern half of the offshore waters. Expect thunderstorms to diminish through tonight.

A new long-period (19 second) northwest (320 degree) swell has already reached the northwest buoys, quite a bit earlier than anticipated. Over the next several hours we will get a handle on whether or not the swell is coming in larger or not. Buoy 51101 was reporting 6 to 8 feet, 19 seconds over the last couple of hours. Regardless of whether or not the swell is larger than originally anticipated, the swell should reach the north and west facing shores of the smaller islands this afternoon, rising rapidly to advisory levels. A High Surf Advisory (HSA) will be posted shortly for the north and west facing shores of the smaller islands. This swell was anticipated to peak tomorrow, but with it arriving early and possibly larger than originally intended, the surf may linger above HSA levels into Monday.

A developing Hurricane Force Low in the northwest Pacific is expected to track eastward as it further intensifies over the next few days. The north-northwest (330 to 340 degree) swell generated from this source should arrive late Monday and peak Monday night into Tuesday near High Surf Warning levels. This swell should slowly decline Tuesday night through rest of the week, while the swell direction veers more northerly.

Small background surf will continue along south facing shores throughout next week. Strengthening trades should bring an increase of choppy and rough surf along east facing shores Tuesday into middle of next week.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Hanauma Bay
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Sat -- 06:44 AM HST     2.05 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:52 AM HST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:34 AM HST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:15 PM HST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:47 PM HST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:11 PM HST     0.60 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:50 PM HST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:31 PM HST     0.52 feet Low Tide
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