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AMZ085 Atlantic S Of 22n W Of 70w Including Approaches To The Windward Passage- 1006 Am Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Today..NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Tonight..NE to E winds 20 to 25 kt S of 21n, and ne to E 15 to 20 kt N of 21n. Seas 6 to 8 ft in ne swell.
Sat..E winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft in ne to E swell.
Sat night..E winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft in ne to E swell. Scattered showers.
Sun..E winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft in ne to E swell.
Sun night..Winds E to se winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft in E swell.
Mon..E to se winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in E swell.
Mon night..E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft.
Tue..E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Tue night..E winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft.

AMZ005
No data

FXCA62 TJSJ 080834 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 434 AM AST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
Expect a gradual increase in wind speeds generated by a building surface high pressure over the western Atlantic. While an enhanced frequency of showers moving into windward areas from the local waters is likely with these conditions, the remnants of a cold front will contribute to this wet trend during the weekend into early next week. More stable conditions, with lower available moisture levels, are expected by the latter part of next week.
Hazardous seas for small craft and life-threatening rip currents for beachgoers are anticipated due to the impact of northerly swells and increasing winds during the next few days.



SHORT TERM
Today through Sunday...

Moderate northeasterly trades across the Atlantic waters brought fragmented clouds and showers from a front near 20N over the northern and western coastal sections of PR through the overnight hours. Over an inch of rain was observed at Vega Baja with this shower activity, and around three tenths of an inch in the San Juan/Guaynabo area. An isolated thunderstorm developed briefly just north of Mona Island after midnight. In general, minimum temperatures were from the mid 60s across the higher elevations to the mid 70s across the lower elevations. A cool advective pattern is expected to continue through the morning hours and additional showers could move at times along the north to west coastal areas of PR, across the USVI fair weather conditions should prevail throughout the day as a dry air mass sits across much of the Caribbean and eastern waters. Breezy conditions are expected through the weekend.

However, a surge in low-level moisture from the combination of an induced trough over the southeastern Caribbean and from a wind surge should bring periods of scattered showers from late tonight into Saturday across most of the Caribbean waters and between the USVI and eastern PR. Diurnally induced afternoon shower development is expected over western PR on Saturday, but rainfall accumulations should be less than an inch. Then, another drier air mass should support fair weather conditions across the islands through at least Sunday morning, when the remnants of the front are pushed from the Atlantic waters and the Anegada Passage across PR and the USVI through Sunday night. Therefore, Sunday is expected to be the wettest day of the short term period. The highest rainfall accumulations (up to around 2 inches) should be across east/northeast PR.

LONG TERM
Monday through Friday...

While there is a possibility of limited afternoon convective development, a cool advective pattern will be the primary source of shower development during the forecast period, typical for this season. A dominant mid-level ridge will persist over the northern Caribbean, sustaining a trade wind cap inversion at around the 800-850 mph level and drier air aloft, confining moisture to the lower levels and, thus, suppressing the likelihood for deep convective or thunderstorm development. However, weak upper-level troughs will briefly weaken the trade wind cap and facilitate the influx of deep moisture into the region. Meanwhile, at the surface, a subtropical surface high pressure system building over the western-central Atlantic will maintain a tightened local pressure across the Northeastern Caribbean and, thus, breezy to locally windy conditions are likely with winds and gusts up to 20-30 mph and 30-40 mph, respectively.

Under these conditions, expect intermittent patches of drier air and shallow moisture to reach the region, causing significant variations in moisture levels every 12 hours or so. According to model guidance, precipitable water will reach the highest and lowest values during the first half of the workweek, ranging from typical seasonal levels of around 1.6 inches by Tuesday afternoon to nearly well below seasonal levels of around an inch by Wednesday morning. During the highest moisture periods, expect an increased frequency of showers moving inland from the waters, especially during nighttime over eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands, with limited afternoon convective development, if any. Although some patches of moisture will likely reach the local islands, the second half of the workweek is suggested to be more stable with generally below-normal precipitable water values. So far, hazard risks through the long-term forecast period should center on winds-related threats, mainly across coastal areas and lower elevations.



AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals through the forecast period. However, brief MVFR cigs are possible at TJBQ/TJSJ thru 08/10z due to -SHRA. ENE winds at 6-12 kt blo FL060, increasing at the sfc at 12-16 kt with gusts near 25-30 kt aft 08/14z. VCSH/SHRA increasing from the Anegada/Caribbean waters late in fcst period, btw 09/00z-06z.



MARINE
Recent observations from the CariCOOS buoy network near Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands have shown consistent marine conditions with wave heights below 3 feet.

Marine conditions will continue to deteriorate as a long dominant period northwesterly to northerly swell and vigorous to locally fresh winds impact the regional waters through the weekend into early next week. During the next few days, seas are anticipated to reach up to 10 feet, with occasional seas up to 11 feet, while winds will gradually reach 15-20 knots on Friday and escalate to 20-25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots over the weekend. Small Craft Advisories are currently in place for most local waters, except for protected coastal waters of south and southwestern Puerto Rico. For more information on current marine risks, refer to the Marine Weather Message (MWWSJU).



SURF ZONE
Deteriorating marine conditions will also impact beach conditions, with breaking waves increasing to 6-8 feet, likely generating life-threatening rip current conditions from today into early next week. A Rip Current Statement is in effect, spanning beaches from Rincon and Aguada in west eastward across northern Puerto Rico to Fajardo in the northeast, Culebra, and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands. For details on current surf zone risks, refer to the Coastal Hazard Message (CFWSJU).



SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...High Rip Current Risk from this evening through late Sunday night for PRZ001-002-010-012.

High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for PRZ005-008.

VI...High Rip Current Risk from this evening through late Sunday night for VIZ001.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM GMT Tuesday for AMZ711.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM GMT Tuesday for AMZ712.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM GMT Tuesday for AMZ716-723-733-741.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 8 AM GMT Monday for AMZ726.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM GMT Monday for AMZ742.

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Sandy Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:05 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:41 AM EST     0.69 meters High Tide
Fri -- 06:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:53 AM EST     0.31 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 01:56 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:32 PM EST     0.60 meters High Tide
Fri -- 05:05 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:44 PM EST     0.21 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Sandy Point, North Caicos Island, Tide feet

Hawks Nest Anchorage
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Fri -- 02:01 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:41 AM EST     1.87 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:02 AM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:53 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:56 PM EST     1.53 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:02 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:59 PM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hawks Nest Anchorage, Turks Islands, Tide feet

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