Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Aguadilla, PR

.Short Term(Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 329 AM AST Mon Aug 3 2026

During the overnight hours drier air with a Saharan Air Layer (SAL)
has gradually displaced the above normal moisture field observed during the weekend. This has led to a sharp decrease in available moisture. Current satellite-derived precipitable water (PWAT) values range from 1.5 inches (moving into the region) over the eastern region to 1.8 and 1.9 inches over the northern and western waters (moving out of the region). Since midnight, radar-estimated rainfall accumulations indicate generally minimal accumulations over the eastern third of Puerto Rico and Vieques as passing showers move through the region. Official and unofficial stations report lows in the upper 70s and low 80s, across urban and lower-elevation areas of the islands, and in the 60s across higher elevations of Puerto Rico.

Up to high concentrations of Saharan Dust will be present today, promoting a more stable weather pattern. This SAL over the islands will result in hazy skies, lower visibilities, and deteriorated air quality today and tomorrow, Tuesday. Sensitive groups should follow the Health Department recommendations, keep their medications handy and avoid outside activities. Although the trough west of PR has weakened/moved away, local effects and seasonal 500 mb temperatures will drive afternoon convection. Activity is expected to be isolated and primarily focused over the interior and western portions of Puerto Rico, under an east-southeast flow, as available moisture is also confined to mainly below 800 mb. Windward areas may experience occasional passing showers during the overnight and morning hours.
Breezy conditions continue to be possible at coastal areas today.
According to the latest model guidance, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL)
will begin gradually retreating from the area tomorrow, leading to more moderate concentrations of Saharan Dust. Despite this reduction, hazy skies, reduced visibilities, and degraded air quality will persist tomorrow. The gradual departure of the dust layer is expected to clear the USVI by tomorrow afternoon, reducing dust levels to low concentrations. By tomorrow evening, the moderate concentrations are projected to shift over the Mona Passage and clear out of Puerto Rico. While some uncertainty remains regarding the exact timing of this transition, a steady trend toward improvement is forecast for Tuesday, followed by sustained low Saharan Dust concentrations on Wednesday.

While precipitable water (PWAT) values are expected to stay below normal to low-end normal today, moisture surges are anticipated tomorrow under an east-northeast steering flow, and on Wednesday driven by an east-southeast steering flow. These moisture pulses will help maintain more typical PWAT levels, with localized spikes above normal possible during afternoon convection on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Enhanced by diurnal heating, local effects, and sea breeze convergence, this afternoon activity (consisting of showers and potential isolated t-storms) brings a limited risk of flooding.
This convection is primarily projected to develop mainly over interior to west-southwest Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and over interior to west-northwest Puerto Rico on Wednesday (as the limiting effects of Saharan Dust are no longer present). Additionally, windward sectors will experience passing showers steered in during the nighttime and early morning hours.

An elevated, to possibly significant, heat risk is projected to continue through the period, as above normal 925 mb temperatures persist and overnight trapping by the Saharan Dust results in warmer lows. Consequently, daily Heat Advisories will likely be required for urban and lower elevation areas of the islands. For today, a Heat Advisory has been issued for urban and coastal areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands from 10 AM to 5 PM AST due to heat indices surpassing the mid 100s. This level of heat affects most individuals sensitive to heat, especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Please continue to monitor forecast updates concerning air quality and heat products.

.Long Term(Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 329 AM AST Mon Aug 3 2026

Variable weather conditions remain in the long-term outlook under the influence of a broad high-pressure system extending over the western to central Atlantic. This system will promote moderate east- to-southeast winds through most of the period. As noted in previous discussions, this weather pattern will bring patches of low-level moisture into the region from time to time, along with drier air in between, maintaining precipitable water content (PWAT) at below- normal to normal levels for the month of August (1.40 to 2.00 inches). No significant rainfall or thunderstorm activity is expected during this period. While passing showers will move across the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico in the morning, they will not lead to notable accumulations. Afternoon convective activity across the interior toward central and western/northwestern Puerto Rico could result in localized showers and isolated thunderstorms at times, driven by available moisture, diurnal heating, and local orographic effects. Therefore, the flooding risk will be none to limited.

Overall, the forecast remains on track for excessive heat persisting through the end of the week. Above-normal temperatures at the 925 mb level will bring daytime highs into the upper 80s and low 90s across coastal and urban areas each day. Combined with the east- southeasterly winds and available moisture, these temperatures could produce high heat indices throughout the period. Please stay hydrated, limit heat exposure, seek air-conditioned areas, and continue to monitor weather conditions as the week progresses.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 329 AM AST Mon Aug 3 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail. HZ will continue through the period, with more noticeable impacts (including limited visibilities) after 3/13Z. Passing SHRA, over the region under ESE flow. After 03/17Z, SHRA can develop over interior to western PR.
After 03/13Z, ESE surface winds increase to 10-17 kts with higher gusts and sea breeze variations, before becoming light and variable after 03/23Z.

MARINE
Issued at 329 AM AST Mon Aug 3 2026

A surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will shift into the western Atlantic by midweek, promoting moderate to locally fresh trades through the end of the week. The next tropical wave is expected to reach the local waters during the upcoming weekend. Seas and winds are expected to remain below small craft advisory criteria through next week. However, locally stronger winds due to the sea breeze are expected each afternoon across the Atlantic and Caribbean coastal waters of Puerto Rico. Hazy conditions due to Saharan dust will persist through tomorrow Tuesday.

BEACH FORECAST
Issued at 329 AM AST Mon Aug 3 2026

There is a moderate risk of rip currents across the northwest to southeastern beaches of Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and St. Croix due to wind-driven waves. A low risk is expected across the western to southern beaches of PR, and most beaches of St. Thomas and St.
John. Nevertheless, beachgoers should be aware that life-threatening rip currents often occur in the vicinity of groins, jetties, reefs, and piers even when the risk is low. From Tuesday through Thursday, the risk will become low across most beaches of the islands.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 329 AM AST Mon Aug 3 2026

A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for portions of the southern and southwestern coastal plains and hills. A dry air mass with up to high concentrations of Saharan Dust is forecast to persist over the area today, which can decrease RH to below threshold values (40s to low 50s). Prolonged rainfall deficits, moderate to severe drought conditions, and critically dry fuels persist across southern Puerto Rico, with Keetch- Byram Drought Index (KBDI) values remaining well above the critical threshold. East to east- southeast winds are expected to remain above or near the threshold values, slightly which could promote the rapid spread of any fire that develops.
Other areas of the islands continue with a moderate fire weather risk. Residents and visitors should avoid outdoor burning and exercise caution with activities that could generate sparks or open flames, especially across areas with critically dry vegetation.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ001>005-007-008-010>013.

VI...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM AST this afternoon for VIZ001-002.

AM...None.