Monday, July6, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Aguadilla, PR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:06AMSunset 7:32PM Monday July 6, 2020 5:26 AM EDT (09:26 UTC) Moonrise 9:08PMMoonset 7:23AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aguadilla, PR
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location: 21.66, -71.76     debug


Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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FXCA62 TJSJ 060908 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 508 AM AST Mon Jul 6 2020

SYNOPSIS. Moist lower levels will have drier air from 850-300 mb only briefly interrupted by passing tropical waves this afternoon, Tuesday night through Wednesday and again on Sunday. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to accompany the waves with the wave of mid-week expected to be the best rain- bearer. East to east southeast trade winds will continue through the period.

SHORT TERM. Today through Wednesday .

A narrow slot of drier air is expected to filter into the region this morning, resulting in just a few showers. Then, by this afternoon, a weak tropical wave is expected to move across the region with low-level moisture increasing. This will result in afternoon convection across western Puerto Rico, where some localized urban and small stream flooding is possible with the heaviest activity. Isolated to scattered passing showers associated with the moisture from this wave are possible during the overnight and morning hours of Tuesday across portions of eastern Puerto Rico and in and around the USVI. Rainfall accumulations for the most part should remain pretty light. Another round of afternoon convection is likely across western Puerto Rico on Tuesday.

Attention, then, on Tuesday night into Wednesday, turns to a strong tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the Windward Islands. This wave and its associated moisture field is expected to arrive into the forecast area beginning later Tuesday evening and lasting into at least the part of Wednesday. Latest model guidance indicates precipitable water values of between 2 and 2.2 inches associated with this wave. Therefore, there is the potential for some organized convective activity to affect portions of the area, with the heaviest activity expected during the overnight hours of Tuesday across the eastern third of Puerto Rico as the low-level moisture convergence appears to be the greatest across this area. The USVI are expected to see scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from time to time during this period as well. Uncertainty in terms of how much rain is expected during the day on Wednesday continues to be high as model guidance continues to diverge on how long the moisture field hangs around. The ECMWF model continues to show the high moisture content leaving the area during the morning hours and as a result, the activity across eastern Puerto Rico and the USVI would shut off with afternoon convection only across northwestern Puerto Rico. The GFS model, on the other hand, holds on to the high moisture content through the late afternoon hours into eastern Puerto Rico. This would result in eastern Puerto Rico continuing to receive additional rainfall activity into the afternoon hours with the USVI expected to dry out. We expect to have a better consensus with the model guidance during the next 12 to 24 hours as to the most likely outcome in terms of the rainfall coverage during the day on Wednesday.

LONG TERM. Thursday through Monday .

The upper air pattern is chaotic during the period Thursday through Saturday as minor low pressures form around Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands and flow remains variable up to 25 knots. Mid levels are more consistent with high pressure remaining just north of the area in an east-west ridge. At lower levels areas of drier air approach Puerto Rico from the east, but are really only able to dominate between 850 and 300 mb with breaks on Wednesday, (the day before) and on Sunday from passing tropical waves. Lower levels, however, remain fairly moist.

Hence convection forms each day in east to east southeast flow in the typical diurnal pattern for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands; that is with isolated occasionally scattered showers over the local waters and occasionally crossing over the USVI and into eastern Puerto Rico during the night and morning hours and afternoon showers and thunderstorms heavy enough to produce ponding on roadways and low-lying areas and occasionally localized urban and small stream flooding. Afternoon convection downstream from the USVI is also likely. All of the convection will be limited by the extensive dry layer above 5-7 kft each day. No other significant features are seen impacting the area for the next 10 days.

AVIATION. Mainly VFR conditions expected across the local area. SHRA/TSRA expected across western PR between 06/16z and 06/23z, resulting in VCTS across TJBQ and mtn obscurations in interior PR. Winds light and variable through 06/12z, increasing to up to 15 knots from the E with higher gusts and sea breeze variations after 06/14z. Maximum winds S 30-40 kt btwn FL410-455.

MARINE. High pressure in the northeast central Atlantic and passing tropical waves will keep moderate to fresh east to east southeast tradewinds over the area through the next 10 days. Seas may reach 7 feet in the outer Atlantic waters Tuesday and Wednesday when a small craft advisory is in effect. Then Friday through Sunday seas are again forecast to increase and become hazardous in all the area's outer waters.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. SJU 89 79 90 78 / 20 40 30 70 STT 91 82 90 82 / 30 30 50 60

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PR . None. VI . None. AM . Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 8 PM AST Wednesday for Atlantic Waters of Puerto Rico and USVI from 10 NM to 19.5N.



SHORT TERM . GL LONG TERM . WS PUBLIC DESK . GL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for Abrahams Bay, Mayaguana Island, Bahamas
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Abrahams Bay
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Mon -- 03:47 AM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:26 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:43 AM EDT     2.75 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:34 PM EDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:03 PM EDT     3.25 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.41.71.10.70.60.91.31.82.42.72.72.52.11.51.10.80.711.52.12.73.13.23.1

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Puerto Rico    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Puerto Rico,Virgin Islands
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.