Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Redford, TX

SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 151 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

WV imagery this morning shows yesterday's upper trough ejecting into the Great Lakes region, leaving zonal flow over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico in its wake. Now that the Easter spell is over, the region can get back to more respectable temperatures.

Today, flow aloft will begin transitioning to southwest with the approach of a Pacific trough. Return flow resumes under sunny skies, promoting an increase in thicknesses and ramping up highs almost 10 F over yesterday's.

Tonight, a vigorous 40+kt LLJ is forecast to develop, advecting ample Gulf moisture up the river valleys, with the 50 F isodrosotherm as far west as Presidio by 12Z Tuesday, and 60+ dewpoints in the lower Trans Pecos. This will likewise result in overnight lows almost 10 F above this morning's...around 5-10 F above normal.

This will all set the stage for convection on Tuesday. A dryline is forecast to sharpen up as the aforementioned Pacific trough moves into the region. East of the dryline, forecast soundings develop mucapes in excess of 3000 J/kg at KMAF by late afternoon. Deep- layer shear of 35-45 kts will support supercells, with mid-lvl lapse rates well in excess of 7 C/km. Dcapes approach 1500 J/kg.
Needless to say, Tuesday afternoon could be busy. Under mostly sunny skies, highs should top out near to around 5 F above climatology.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 151 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

By Tuesday night, any storms that develop move off to the east out of our area. Both Wednesday and Thursday look to be a sort of "rinse and repeat" of Tuesday. A dryline sets up over (roughly) western portions of region, a southerly/southeasterly low-level jet develops and pumps moisture into west Texas, and weak pulses in the southwesterly upper level flow move across the area. As a result, both days feature additional rain and storm chances over the Central/Eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos (20-50% Wednesday, 40-70% Thursday, with the best chances in easternmost locations). Furthermore, east of the dryline MUCAPE values of 1500- 2500 J/kg (locally up to 3000 J/kg), 700-500mb lapse rates of 7-9 C/km, and ample low-level moisture will allow a few storms to become strong to severe as they fire off the dryline. Nevertheless, many questions remain concerning storm coverage in this weakly-forced environment, and 0-6 km shear looks sufficient for severe weather but not overly-great (25-35 kts generally, up to 40-45 kts).
Despite these potential mitigating factors, a few storms that do form should develop some large hail and damaging winds (~ 30-50% confidence).

A weak cold front enters the region Friday night and looks to eventually stall out. This will, once again, set the stage for some more rain and storm chances Friday night into Saturday before the boundary washes out. All of that is to say, we'll have a number of decent shots at rain/storms this week, though storm coverage will likely (> 60% confidence) be pretty spotty for our area and a severe threat will accompany storms that do develop.

Besides the storm chances, high temperatures will be seasonable/a bit warmer than average for this time of year (highs in the 80s generally, with some low 90s). Lows will be a bit warmer than average (upper 50s and low 60s) given the increasing moisture at the surface and mixing at night associated with the moist low-level jet, especially for easternmost locations. Winds will also be relatively weaker for most of the period given the lack of any potent large- scale systems or fronts. This will help limit fire weather concerns next week, despite dry conditions for locations west of the dryline (ie southeast New Mexico and the mountains of west Texas).

Sprang

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow, with a high cloud or two.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Big Spring 84 56 82 60 / 0 0 50 60 Carlsbad 85 53 88 56 / 0 0 10 10 Dryden 87 61 84 63 / 0 0 50 40 Fort Stockton 89 62 88 62 / 0 0 40 20 Guadalupe Pass 78 56 79 56 / 0 0 10 0 Hobbs 82 53 83 56 / 0 0 30 20 Marfa 82 51 85 52 / 0 0 20 10 Midland Intl Airport 84 57 81 61 / 0 0 40 40 Odessa 84 58 81 61 / 0 0 40 40 Wink 88 59 87 61 / 0 0 20 20

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
NM...None.