LONG TERM
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Warmer and drier conditions are still forecast this week into next week. NBM runs have been increasing highs and lows by a few degrees from values in previous runs, so we are fairly confident in this trend as of now. These warmer and drier conditions will occur as an upper ridge strengthens over the Rockies, providing large-scale subsidence keeping clouds and rain to a minimum and allowing for more daytime heating. At the surface, light southeast winds are also expected under the ridge. Triple digits along the Pecos River into the upper Trans Pecos and over northeast Permian Basin are likely Sunday into next Friday. These highs will be above average for this time of year although not record breaking.
Lows fall into the 70s and above, 60s for most of Lea County and SW TX Sunday night, and 70s and above aside from 60s northern Lea County and Marfa Plateau into lower Trans Pecos Monday night through Friday night, as the LLJ ramps up next week and keeps the boundary layer well mixed, minimizing radiational cooling near the surface. Large-scale subsidence from the upper ridge means rain chances will be slim to none, other than diurnally driven storms from heating of elevated terrain, mainly over the Davis Mountains.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 559 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

VFR prevails through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Big Spring 71 96 71 99 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 71 96 70 100 / 10 10 10 10 Dryden 70 94 70 96 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 69 96 69 99 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 68 88 67 92 / 0 10 10 20 Hobbs 69 94 68 97 / 10 10 0 0 Marfa 61 91 62 92 / 0 10 10 20 Midland Intl Airport 71 94 70 97 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 71 94 71 97 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 73 98 73 100 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
NM...None.