Friday, April10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Redford, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:43AMSunset 8:22PM Friday April 10, 2020 2:05 PM CDT (19:05 UTC) Moonrise 9:51PMMoonset 8:13AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Redford, TX
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Area Discussion for - Midland/Odessa, TX
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FXUS64 KMAF 101723 AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1223 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2020

DISCUSSION.

See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION. MVFR CIGS should become VFR at all terminals by late this afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to erupt along a stationary front late this afternoon and continue into tonight across portions of southeast New Mexico and west Texas. Confidence was high enough to include a tempo MVFR VSBY group in tsra at KMAF and KINK this evening with prob30 groups at KHOB and KPEQ. Will continue to monitor the latest trends.

12

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 613 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2020/

DISCUSSION .

Please see the 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION . Scattered to broken skies across most terminals (sans KMAF and KHOB) around 7k ft according to latest obs. Guidance has backed off on timing and sustained impact of MVFR cigs forecast to move in. Satellite showing some low cigs beginning to develop across Pecos river and areas east of KMAF. Have pushed back the arrival time, but sustained the MVFR ceilings arriving for all terminals.

Sites will return to VFR by the afternoon with TSRA development likely between 18-23z. Guidance still on fence of coverage and when/where exactly the storms will impact, but expecting all sites to be under a chance of TSRA between 18-06z. With such a large disagreement in guidance, did not want to venture beyond the VFR improvement time frame, but future impact is likely.

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 505 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2020/

DISCUSSION .

A very active few days of weather are in store for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, courtesy mainly of a menacing closed trough over SoCal. Currently, WV imagery shows a ridge over the south central CONUS, but this will begin moving east today as the west coast trough begins nudging inland. At the sfc, 50+ dewpoints are crawling up the Pecos Rvr Valley, assisted by a 30kt LLJ as per VWP. This moisture is forecast to stay banked up against the higher terrain throughout the day and into tonight, resulting in afternoon mucapes in excess of 1500 J/kg, mainly over the Stockton Plateau, as well as dcapes in excess of 1000 J/kg. Mid-lvl lapse rates increase to 7C/km by 18Z, and increase further by 00Z. Deep-lyr shear is already in place over the region, and is forecast to remain 40-50kts for the next 24 hrs. Convection could develop as soon as late morning (GFS) out west, and move east thru the afternoon and into the evening hours. Large hail/damaging winds will be possible, w/the HRRR, HREF, and SREF suggesting the Pecos supercell making an appearance.

Saturday, the SoCal trough continues moving east, to the AZ/Sonora border by 00Z Sun. Leeside troughing on the Front Range ahead of this feature will induce westerly sfc flow out on the higher terrain, sharpening up a dryline and mixing it east, fairly early, to the Permian basin/lwr Trans Pecos by late morning. Isolated convection will be possible along/east of the dryline during the day, but redevelopment will be possible Sat night as the dryline briefly retreats NW back into the lwr Tran Pecos. Strong deep-lyr shear rounding the base of the trough and mid-lvl lapse rates of up to 9C/km suggests a few hours of nocturnal svr wx over the lwr Trans Pecos before strong westerly sfc flow scours moisture east Sun morning. As the trough approaches Sat afternoon, a marginal mtn wave signature is forecast over the Guadalupes. We'll keep the watch going for there, and extended a bit into Sat night. Winds on Sunday are a bit more in question. MOS products, usually a good indicator of high wind events, suggest a widespread wind event Sun as the trough passes thru the region, and a watch issued. However, at 12Z Sun, the GFS, ECMWF, and CMC are in fairly good agreement w/placing the trough over the NM/Texas border, and in central Texas by 18Z. This timing suggests MOS numbers may be overdone, and we're reluctant to issue any watch products attm. We've toned down windspeeds somewhat, and will mention this in the HWO.

Sun afternoon behind the trough, the always-reliable Easter cold snap arrives as a strong cold front invades the area. The NAM brings it into the upper Colorado Rvr Valley 18-21Z, but this will probably hang up due to diurnal heating, and come thru a few hrs later. Temps Monday morning could drop to freezing over the nrn zones Mon morning, and possible Tue/Wed mornings as well. This is too far out for a watch, but we'll mention this in the HWO. Monday night, frozen precip will be possible nrn Lea County as a disturbance moves thru the Texas Panhandle, before dry wx follows into the extended under zonal flow aloft.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Big Spring 57 80 52 75 / 70 30 10 0 Carlsbad 50 77 50 77 / 20 0 0 0 Dryden 63 89 56 84 / 30 0 20 0 Fort Stockton 59 83 53 76 / 30 0 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 48 65 42 65 / 10 0 0 0 Hobbs 54 76 48 75 / 50 0 0 0 Marfa 47 77 42 72 / 10 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 58 80 52 77 / 60 10 10 0 Odessa 58 80 52 76 / 60 10 10 0 Wink 58 82 52 79 / 50 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NM . High Wind Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX . High Wind Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.



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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Midland/Odessa, TX (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tucson, AZ
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.