Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Redford, TX

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Not many changes to the short term...lather, rinse, repeat. WV imagery this morning shows southwest flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, and this will continue through Thursday as a Pacific trough moves through the region. Expect another dryline mid-CWA this afternoon, w/mucapes in excess of 3000 J/kg east of this feature. Forecast soundings again depict mid-lvl lapse rates 7-9 C/km, w/deep-lyr shear similar to yesterday. Thus, another round of severe activity this afternoon/evening, only w/the addition of multiple residual boundaries from yesterday's convection knocking about. Highs should come in ~ 7-9 F above normal.

Tonight, convection will diminish during the evening and/or move off to the east. Another 40+kt LLJ redevelops, w/mixing and debris cloud keeping overnight lows ~ 10-12 F above normal.

Thursday looks to be a carbon copy of today, only highs may be a degree cooler.

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Yet again, by Thursday night storms push off to the east of our area. Behind them, subtle mid-to-upper-level ridging sets up over southeast New Mexico and west Texas Friday morning. Nevertheless, this will rather quickly push off to the east and southwesterly flow aloft will continue as troughing strengthens to our west.
Difluence and weak pulses within the mid-to-upper-level flow, coupled with potential smaller-scale influences to our north (ex: remnant boundaries), will once again allow for the development of a few storms early Saturday morning into the afternoon/evening while the dryline sharpens over western portions of the area.
Right now, it appears the best forcing (and rain chances) will be found in the Northern/Eastern Permian Basin in particular (30-60% chances). Like today and Thursday, storms may become strong to severe given ample moisture/instability (surface dewpoints in the 50s and 60s, MUCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg) and sufficient 0-6 km shear (30-40 kts generally, up to 45-50 kts). Of course, details will be refined closer to time.

Sunday and Monday, the dryline moves farther to the east (though models differ somewhat as to just how far east). A larger system will approach the region during this timeframe, but given the displacement of the dryline storm chances will be confined to easternmost locations/counties (10-30% chances for these locations). Otherwise, southerly/southwesterly winds increase over the weekend into early next week as the aforementioned system nears and surface pressure gradients tighten in response.

Temperatures remain seasonable/a touch warmer than normal until the end of the weekend, when widespread highs in the upper 80s and low 90s look to return on the back of the increasing southerly/southwesterly winds.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Residual MVFR ceilings over portions of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos region, including near KMAF and east of KFST should continue to scatter over the next 1-2 hours. VFR will generally remain prevalent across the region this afternoon. The exception will be near scattered TSRA that will develop over portions of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos later this afternoon into early this evening. Confidence in TSRA impact is highest at KFST, while storms could also develop nearby KPEQ and KINK late this afternoon/early this evening. MVFR/IFR visibility reductions in heavy rain/hail will be possible near the strongest storms. Localized erratic winds with strong to severe gusts can also be expected with the strongest convection.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Big Spring 85 64 84 62 / 30 30 40 10 Carlsbad 92 56 90 54 / 10 10 10 0 Dryden 86 64 87 65 / 20 30 40 20 Fort Stockton 90 65 90 64 / 30 30 40 10 Guadalupe Pass 83 57 81 58 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 88 59 87 57 / 10 20 20 0 Marfa 86 54 85 53 / 20 10 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 85 64 85 63 / 20 20 30 10 Odessa 86 64 85 64 / 20 20 30 10 Wink 91 63 91 62 / 20 10 20 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
NM...None.