Sunrise 6:17 AM   Sunset 7:37 PM Moonrise 1:19 PM   Moonset 1:40 AM

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PMZ021 Southern Gulf Of California- 256 Pm Pdt Thu May 16 2024
Tonight - NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Period 16 seconds. Fri - NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Period 17 seconds. Fri night - W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Period 17 seconds. Sat - Variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming sw 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Period 18 seconds. Sat night - Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft in S swell. Period 14 seconds. Sun - W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Period 13 seconds. Sun night - W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Period 13 seconds. Mon - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in S swell. Period 13 seconds. Mon night - Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in S swell. Period 13 seconds. Tue - Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft in S swell. Period 13 seconds. Tue night - W to nw winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Period 13 seconds.

PMZ005
No data

FXUS64 KMAF 170018 AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX Issued by National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 718 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

The short term forecast today is front-loaded, with potential severe thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening before the pattern becomes much more quiescent Friday through next week. The much- advertised cold front has progressed to the vicinity of the Pecos River, and while a blanket of low clouds encompassed areas to the north, these clouds have started to lift and scatter, and in areas with clearing, isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed given ample moisture and ascent over the boundary in an environment characterized by 1250-1500 J/kg MUCAPE. This ascent is facilitated by a positively tilted trough to the west of the region, maintaining southwesterly flow over Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. Per latest water vapor imagery, this low remains over western New Mexico, and will continue its eastward trek through tonight, with falling heights and cooling temperatures aloft contributing to steepening lapse rates, potentially in excess of 9deg C/km by this afternoon. More robust convective development is thus expected, with ample shear, considerable low- level moisture, and the aforementioned steep lapse rates favorable for supercell development on the cool side of the boundary this afternoon. These initial supercells, likely across Southeast New Mexico, the Upper Trans Pecos, and western Permian Basin, would carry large hail and damaging winds as the primary concerns, with antecedent atmospheric conditions yielding an expected transition to multi-cell clusters and upscale growth as outflow boundaries merge, a solution echoed by various CAMs. Once storms develop and grow upscale, locally heavy rain and damaging winds/wet microbursts become more of a concern, though hail potential will still remain. Activity will gradually move east through this evening as the aforementioned trough swings through the region, though showers may linger over northeastern areas through late tonight.

Temperatures overnight will trend a bit cooler, in the 50s for most as drier air filters into the region as the dryline pushes east and the cold front pushes south. Given continued cool advection Friday, temperatures will remain below normal, topping out in the 80s for most, with 90s mainly along the Rio Grande and portions of the Lower Trans Pecos. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible Friday afternoon, associated with a weak shortwave on the back side of the departing trough, and primarily over the higher terrain to the west and southwest where orographic lifting will play a role. A lower chance exists across the eastern Permian Basin as the shortwave translates across the area, but chances remain low, around 10-15%, with no severe weather expected. By Friday evening, storms will diminish, with a dry forecast thereafter. Lows Friday night dip into the 50s and 60s once again, ahead of a big warm-up that'll begin this weekend, and carry into next week.

JP

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Following the short wave trough and associated cold front, below average temperatures Thursday and Friday, a warming trend sets in as a zonal/split jet flow pattern continues and ridging builds in into early next week. Above average highs and lows are likely by Saturday with mainly 90s and above for highs, upper 50s to upper 60s lows, with the first triple digits of the year forecast for Midland/Odessa and many locations in the Permian Basin Sunday, Monday, and possibly Tuesday under mostly clear skies and westerly downslope winds. Except for higher elevations in the mountains, everywhere should see highs at the very least reaching the mid to upper 90s, 10 to 15 degrees above normal for mid May. Heat stress could be an issue given the early timing of triple digit heat. A cold front moving through mid week will drop temperatures closer to average for the end of the long term next Wednesday and Thursday, with highs ranging from the upper 80s and 90s to the triple digits near the Rio Grande and lows ranging from the mid 50s northernmost Lea County and Permian Basin to 60s south and lowers 70s near the Rio Grande, still 5 to 10 degrees above average but not as warm as earlier in the week. At this time, we are not expecting much if any rainfall with the cold front next week, but we will continue to monitor the forecast for consistently in signal of increasing or decreasing PoPs in synoptic and mesoscale models.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 717 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Gusty and strong N winds linger for an hour or two for all TAF sites from convection that rolled through earlier. Blowing dust is being tracked on satellite through KFST with VIS near 2 miles possible. Dust should settle shortly after sunset. Winds will subside quickly to AOB 10kts overnight, remaining from the N-NW.
Rain chances have largely ended other than KMAF which could see lingering TS nearby as the line of storms departs to the east. For the overnight and tomorrow, quiet conditions expected with winds AOB 8kts and somewhat variable. Other than FEW-SCT140, mainly clear skies expected through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Big Spring MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM Carlsbad MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM Dryden MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM Fort Stockton MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM Guadalupe Pass MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM Hobbs MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM Marfa MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM Midland Intl Airport MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM Odessa MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM Wink MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
NM...None.

La Paz
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Thu -- 12:36 AM MST     0.51 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 01:39 AM MST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:02 AM MST     0.55 meters High Tide
Thu -- 05:37 AM MST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:09 AM MST     0.11 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 01:18 PM MST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:33 PM MST     0.74 meters High Tide
Thu -- 06:57 PM MST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

La Paz, Baja California Sur, Mexico (2), Tide feet

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