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GMZ044 Expires:202312090330;;131181 Fzus52 Kkey 082125 Cwfkey
coastal waters forecast for the florida keys national weather service key west fl 425 pm est Fri dec 8 2023
florida bay, hawk channel and straits of florida from ocean reef to south of dry tortugas, and the extreme southeastern gulf of mexico, including the florida keys national marine sanctuary
seas are given as significant wave height, which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
gmz042>044-090330- hawk channel from ocean reef to craig key out to the reef- hawk channel from craig key to west end of seven mile bridge out to the reef- hawk channel from west end of seven mile bridge to halfmoon shoal out to the reef- 425 pm est Fri dec 8 2023
Tonight..East winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Saturday..East to southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, decreasing to near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters choppy, becoming a moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Saturday night..East to southeast winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southeast to south near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop, becoming a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southwest to west winds near 5 knots, becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters smooth, becoming a light to moderate chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Monday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. West of cosgrove shoal light, seas 3 to 5 feet, building to 5 to 6 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Isolated showers.
Monday night and Tuesday..Northeast winds near 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, except 5 to 6 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters rough. Isolated showers.
Tuesday night through Wednesday night..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, except 4 to 6 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters very rough. Scattered showers.

GMZ005 Synopsis For Keys Coastal Waters From Ocean Reef To Dry Tortugas 425 Pm Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis..Moderate to occasionally fresh breezes will persist across the coastal waters of the florida keys tonight through Saturday night. Another cold front will approach the florida keys coastal waters late Sunday and Sunday night, with slackening breezes and a bout of unsettled weather possible ahead of the front. Strong northeast breezes are expected in the wake of the frontal passage for Monday through Wednesday.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream as of december 09...
45 nm south of dry tortugas light...on loggerhead key. 15 nm south of cosgrove shoal light...off the marquesas keys. 10 nm south of sand key light...off key west. 11 nm south of looe key...off big pine key. 17 nm south of sombrero key light...off marathon. 21 nm southeast of alligator reef light...off islamorada. 11 nm southeast of molasses reef light...off key largo. 5 nm east of carysfort reef light...off ocean reef.
gulf stream information courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KKEY 082004 AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 304 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 144 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023 Despite the southeast breezes at the Reef, it is a pleasant afternoon across the Florida Keys. Temperatures are near 80 and dewpoints remain in the mid to upper 60s. Low and upper level cloud cover has kept the feels like temperatures in check. A few light rain showers strafed Vaca Key in the past couple hours, dropping a couple hundreths of an inch of rainfall. For the most part the island chain is rain-free.

FORECAST
The forecast for the next week will feature a cold frontal passage, followed by several days of strong northeast to east breezes, and culminating in a very nino-like episode of cyclogenesis in the Gulf of Mexico. Ahead of the next frontal passage, weakly confluent low-level flow followed by weak cyclonic curvature will introduce rain and thunder chances. We question the available moisture, so have nudged chances down to 30%. Additionally, in between the confluent and cyclonic episodes, the winds will collapse. Given the recently recovered tropical dewpoints and the Bay and Gulf side waters back in the lower 70s, this is a decent setup for sea fog. Behind the front, a potent anticyclone will set up camp over the Southeast, eventually getting reinforced by another high pressure system.
This will set the stage for several days of strong northeast to east breezes. For the tail-end of the forecast, there continues to be run-to-run and model-to-model consistency for cyclogenesis in the southern Gulf. The surface will feature a nearly stagnant baroclinic zone, coupled with a significant buckling in the southern stream jet stream. It is still too early to discuss any hazards with this developing low pressure system, and the track will determine much of this.

MARINE
Issued at 144 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023 Moderate to occasionally fresh breezes will persist across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys tonight through Saturday night.
Another cold front will approach the Florida Keys coastal waters late Sunday and Sunday night, with slackening breezes and a bout of unsettled weather possible ahead of the front. Strong northeast breezes are expected in the wake of the frontal passage for Monday through Wednesday.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 144 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both terminals through the TAF period, although an occasional bout of sub-VFR conditions are possible due to an occaisional passing shower. Winds are forecast to remain out of the east to east southeast near 10 knots.

CLIMATE
On this day in Keys Weather History, the daily record rainfall of 6.66 inches was a recorded in Key West set back on this date in 1986. This is also the wettest day ever recorded in December.
Rainfall records for Key West date back to 1871. Contrastingly, the daily record rainfall of 0.70 inches was recorded in Marathon set back on this date in 1990. Rainfall records for Marathon date back to 1950.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Key West 74 81 75 82 / 10 10 10 20 Marathon 73 82 75 83 / 10 10 10 30

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GM...None.

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Sand Key Lighthouse
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:47 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:42 AM EST     1.17 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:14 AM EST     0.58 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:34 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:21 PM EST     1.58 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:39 PM EST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Sand Key Lighthouse, Sand Key Channel, Florida, Tide feet

Boca Grande Channel
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:14 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:48 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:09 AM EST     0.95 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:50 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:57 AM EST     -0.97 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 12:47 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:35 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:12 PM EST     0.73 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:39 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:27 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:57 PM EST     -1.21 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Boca Grande Channel, Florida Current, knots

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