Monday, November18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Key West, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 5:40PM Monday November 18, 2019 1:04 AM EST (06:04 UTC) Moonrise 11:26PMMoonset 12:14PM Illumination 65% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ075 Expires:201911180930;;433478 Fzus52 Kkey 180329 Cwfkey Coastal Waters Forecast For The Florida Keys National Weather Service Key West Fl 1029 Pm Est Sun Nov 17 2019 Florida Bay...hawk Channel And Straits Of Florida From Ocean Reef To South Of Dry Tortugas...and The Extreme Southeastern Gulf Of Mexico...including The Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary Seas Are Given As Significant Wave Height...which Is The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves. Individual Waves May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height. Gmz053>055-074-075-180930- Straits Of Florida From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out 20 Nm- Straits Of Florida From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To South Of Halfmoon Shoal Out 20 Nm- Straits Of Florida From Halfmoon Shoal To 20 Nm West Of Dry Tortugas Out 20 Nm- Straits Of Florida From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To South Of Halfmoon Shoal 20 To 60 Nm Out- Straits Of Florida From Halfmoon Shoal To 20 Nm West Of Dry Tortugas 20 To 60 Nm Out- 1029 Pm Est Sun Nov 17 2019
Overnight..Mainly north winds 10 to 15 knots, decreasing to near 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Isolated showers.
Monday..Northwest winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Isolated showers.
Monday night..West to northwest winds near 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Isolated showers.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Isolated showers.
Tuesday night..North to northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Isolated showers.
Wednesday..Northeast winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..Northeast to east winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday and Thursday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Isolated showers.
Friday and Friday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, subsiding to 2 to 3 feet. Isolated showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Key West, FL
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location: 24.55, -82.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Key West, FL
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Fxus62 kkey 180337
afdkey
area forecast discussion
national weather service key west fl
1037 pm est Sun nov 17 2019

Discussion
Partly to mostly cloudy skies and rather cool conditions prevail
over the florida keys on this Sunday evening. Radar shows a few
possible sprinkles around the lower keys, with dry conditions
elsewhere. Satellite imagery depicts areas of stratus and stratocu
continuing to stream south from mainland south florida and the
eastern gulf of mexico across the keys. These clouds held
temperatures down in the upper 60s across the middle and upper
keys today, and temps in those areas have dropped to between 59
and 64 degrees since sunset. Temps in the lower keys continue to
run a bit warmer due to the longer over-water trajectory of the
northerly breezes, with readings ranging from 66 at north big pine
to 70 at key west airport as of 10 pm.

Surface analysis depicts an occluded low pressure area centered
east of the outer banks, with a high pressure ridge extending from
new england southward across the eastern CONUS into the gulf. The
keys lie within weakening northerly flow to the east of this
ridge. The 00z key west and miami soundings found saturated layers
trapped beneath very strong inversions based between 2200 and
3500 feet, which explains the persistent cloud cover over the
region. Pw values around 0.75 inches are below the 10th
percentile for this time of year.

Overnight, sky cover and low temperatures are the main forecast
challenges. Low clouds persisted throughout the day across the
florida peninsula and parts of the keys, which is very unusual,
but these clouds have broken up to some extent across the middle
and lower keys and the upstream gulf waters during the past couple
of hours. Whether this trend will continue or not is very
uncertain, and will continue with partly cloudy skies through the
remainder of the night. Also updated overnight lows earlier to
show more of a range along the keys. Based on latest temperature
trends, have updated again to lower overnight lows a bit more, to
55-60 upper keys, 60-65 middle keys, and mid 60s lower keys.

Otherwise, a few light showers or sprinkles will be possible in
the lower keys, as shown in the current forecast.

Marine
Recent observations show winds turning to the nne and decreasing
along the middle and lower keys, while gentle to moderate NW to n
winds prevail over the western and eastern portions of the marine
area. Model guidance also indicates that a significant north
swell is now impacting the far eastern straits. We have no recent
satellite altimetry or nearby ship buoy data to verify this, but
noaa buoy 41009 east of CAPE canaveral has been reporting seas of
10 to 15 feet in nne swell for the past 18 hours now, so it seems
likely that some of this swell is indeed moving into the eastern
parts of our marine area as the guidance depicts. For the late
evening forecast issuance, we have maintained the small craft
advisory due to the seas for the eastern straits. With winds now
decreasing, we have dropped the previous small craft exercise
caution headlines for the waters around the lower middle keys.

Aviation
Areas of stratus and stratocu persist over the florida mainland
and the eastern gulf waters this evening. These clouds brought
continuous MVFR ceilings to mth for over 12 hours today, then
finally cleared out briefly at 10 pm before moving right back in
again. Meanwhile, CIGS at eyw have remained almost entirelyVFR.

With the 00z key west and miami soundings showing saturated layers
beneath very strong inversions, and SREF ensemble guidance
indicating a strong chance for MVFR CIGS to persist overnight,
believe that mth will probably remain in MVFR CIGS at least some
of the time until at least early Monday morning, while eyw stays
mostlyVFR with perhaps just occasional MVFR cigs. However, as
such prolonged MVFR CIGS are quite unusual in the keys, confidence
in the terminal forecasts, particularly the mth forecast, is
considerably lower than normal.

Climate
Today's high temperature at key west was 78 degrees. This finally
ended the record streak during which the high at key west reached
at least 80 degrees at 234 days. Before today, the last day on
which the high remained below 80 degrees was march 27, when the
high temperature was also 78.

Key watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory for gmz052-072-073.

Public marine fire... Jacobson
aviation nowcasts... .Jacobson
data collection... ... Dr
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
42095 13 mi35 min 81°F2 ft
SANF1 - Sand Key, FL 15 mi35 min NE 11 G 14 70°F 1010.2 hPa65°F
KYWF1 - 8724580 - Key West, FL 17 mi59 min NNE 5.1 G 8 69°F 80°F1012.2 hPa
PLSF1 - Pulaski Shoal Light, FL 35 mi80 min NNW 8 G 11 75°F 1011.9 hPa (+0.0)
GKYF1 40 mi65 min 73°F

Wind History for Key West, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Key West International Airport, FL20 mi72 minNE 510.00 miPartly Cloudy69°F63°F81%1012.1 hPa
Key West Naval Air Station, FL23 mi72 minNE 510.00 miFair68°F62°F81%1011.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEYW

Wind History from EYW (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN13
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2 days agoSE6SE7SE7S7S7S8S6S10SW5SW11SW10W8NW11NW10NW8NW8NW6NW8NW8NW7N7N7N7NW8

Tide / Current Tables for Sand Key Lighthouse, Sand Key Channel, Florida
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Sand Key Lighthouse
Click for Map
Mon -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:16 AM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:12 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:54 PM EST     1.19 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:39 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:16 PM EST     0.85 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:24 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.91.61.30.90.50.30.20.20.40.60.811.11.21.110.90.80.911.21.41.7

Tide / Current Tables for Boca Grande Channel, Florida Current
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Boca Grande Channel
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:49 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:40 AM EST     -1.16 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:02 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:46 AM EST     1.15 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 12:13 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 02:45 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:40 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:47 PM EST     -0.87 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 08:50 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:06 PM EST     0.74 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:25 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.3-0.1-0.4-0.8-1.1-1.1-1-0.6-00.611.110.70.3-0.1-0.5-0.8-0.9-0.7-0.40.10.50.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Key West, FL (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Key West, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.