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GMZ043 Expires:202311281530;;536102 Fzus52 Kkey 280925 Cwfkey
coastal waters forecast for the florida keys national weather service key west fl 425 am est Tue nov 28 2023
florida bay, hawk channel and straits of florida from ocean reef to south of dry tortugas, and the extreme southeastern gulf of mexico, including the florida keys national marine sanctuary
seas are given as significant wave height, which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
gmz042>044-281530- hawk channel from ocean reef to craig key out to the reef- hawk channel from craig key to west end of seven mile bridge out to the reef- hawk channel from west end of seven mile bridge to halfmoon shoal out to the reef- 425 am est Tue nov 28 2023
Today..North to northeast winds near 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet, except 3 to 4 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters a moderate chop.
Tonight..North to northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet, except 3 to 4 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters choppy.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, decreasing to near 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet, except 3 to 4 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters choppy, becoming a moderate chop.
Wednesday night..Northeast to east winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters choppy.
Thursday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Isolated showers.
Friday and Friday night..East to southeast winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Saturday night..East to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.

GMZ005 Synopsis For Keys Coastal Waters From Ocean Reef To Dry Tortugas 425 Am Est Tue Nov 28 2023
Synopsis..High pressure initially over the southern plains will shift east across the southeast united states into the western north atlantic over the next several days. Fresh north to northeast breezes will shift to the east to southeast and diminish as the high moves into the atlantic.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream as of november 25...
39 nm south of dry tortugas light...on loggerhead key. 11 nm south of cosgrove shoal light...off the marquesas keys. 7 nm south of sand key light...off key west. 14 nm south of looe key...off big pine key. 28 nm south of sombrero key light...off marathon. 11 nm southeast of alligator reef light...off islamorada. 6 nm southeast of molasses reef light...off key largo. 6 nm east of carysfort reef light...off ocean reef.
gulf stream information courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KKEY 280924 AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 424 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 330 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023 A cold front pushed through the Keys Monday morning, but with nearshore SSTs near 80, temperatures have been slow to fall. A couple stations in the Upper Keys are below 70 although the majority of stations in the Keys are in the lower to mid 70s.
Dewpoints across the Keys are in the mid 60s. Dewpoints are nearing 50 across Southwest Florida, so drier air is on the way.
The KBYX radar is echo free and skies are mostly clear. North to northeast winds average near 15 knots at the Reef.

FORECAST
The main forecast challenge through the short term will be the winds and the temperatures. By and shortly after daybreak this morning, most island communities should be a degree or two below 70. Highs today will climb back into the mid 70s while dewpoints continue to fall. It appears a second lobe of cold air advection will pivot through this afternoon, setting the stage for a solid density surge this evening. Dewpoints likely will bottom out in the mid to upper 50s, with temperatures ranging in the 60s by Wednesday morning. Nearshore SSTs should be down in the mid 70s by Wednesday afternoon which will once again limit afternoon high temperatures. Thereafter, a dramatic return to tropical breezes will drive dewpoints back into the mid 70s by the start of the weekend. This warm air advection will result in a solid veering profile, although dry air between 850-700 mb will limit rain chances to slight at best. Breezes will collapse Sunday through Monday as the next cold front enters the Gulf of Mexico and erodes the western flank of the subtropical ridge.

MARINE
Issued at 330 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. A Small Craft Advisory may be required for the coastal waters west of Cosgrove Shoal tonight as northeast winds increase to near 20 knots. From synopsis, high pressure initially over the southern Plains will shift east across the Southeast United States into the western North Atlantic over the next several days. Fresh north to northeast breezes will shift to the east to southeast and diminish as the high moves into the Atlantic.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 330 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through the TAF period. Surface winds will continue to be a cross wind of speeds around 10 knots out of the north with occasional gusts of up to 20 knots (mostly at EYW) until tonight around 00z when gusty conditions should subside.

CLIMATE
On this day in 1903, the daily record cold high temperature of 61F was recorded in Key West. This is also tied for the coldest high temperature ever recorded in November. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Key West 76 68 76 69 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 76 66 75 70 / 10 10 10 0

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GM...None.

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Vaca Key-Fat Deer Key bridge
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Tue -- 03:35 AM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:06 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:48 AM EST     1.30 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:41 PM EST     0.50 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:34 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:40 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:41 PM EST     2.24 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Vaca Key-Fat Deer Key bridge, Florida, Tide feet

Moser Channel (swingbridge)
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Tue -- 02:51 AM EST     -2.48 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:17 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:06 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:23 AM EST     2.04 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 12:46 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:39 PM EST     -1.73 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:40 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:49 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 09:11 PM EST     1.12 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:56 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Moser Channel (swingbridge), Florida Current, knots

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Key West, FL,