Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Marathon, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 5:40PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 11:21 AM EST (16:21 UTC) Moonrise 5:24PMMoonset 6:16AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ053 Expires:201912112130;;194284 Fzus52 Kkey 111516 Cwfkey Coastal Waters Forecast For The Florida Keys National Weather Service Key West Fl 1016 Am Est Wed Dec 11 2019 Florida Bay...hawk Channel And Straits Of Florida From Ocean Reef To South Of Dry Tortugas...and The Extreme Southeastern Gulf Of Mexico...including The Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary Seas Are Given As Significant Wave Height...which Is The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves. Individual Waves May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height. Gmz052>055-072>075-112130- Straits Of Florida From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out 20 Nm- Straits Of Florida From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out 20 Nm- Straits Of Florida From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To South Of Halfmoon Shoal Out 20 Nm- Straits Of Florida From Halfmoon Shoal To 20 Nm West Of Dry Tortugas Out 20 Nm- Straits Of Florida From Ocean Reef To Craig Key 20 To 60 Nm Out- Straits Of Florida From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge 20 To 60 Nm Out- Straits Of Florida From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To South Of Halfmoon Shoal 20 To 60 Nm Out- Straits Of Florida From Halfmoon Shoal To 20 Nm West Of Dry Tortugas 20 To 60 Nm Out- 1016 Am Est Wed Dec 11 2019
This afternoon..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Isolated showers.
Tonight..Northeast to east winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet, building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight. Scattered showers developing.
Thursday..Northeast to east winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Isolated showers.
Thursday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots, decreasing to near 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet, subsiding to 3 to 5 feet. Isolated showers.
Friday..East to southeast winds near 15 knots, decreasing to near 10 knots. Seas 2 to 5 feet, subsiding to 2 to 3 feet late. Isolated showers.
Friday night..Southeast to south winds near 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Scattered showers.
Saturday..Southwest to west winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Isolated showers.
Saturday night..Northwest to north winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Isolated showers.
Sunday..Northeast to east winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..East winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas building to 3 to 5 feet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marathon, FL
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location: 24.73, -81.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Key West, FL
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FXUS62 KKEY 111617 AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1117 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

DISCUSSION. Currently - Water vapor imagery along with analysis shows a broad upper level trough extending from the Gulf of Mexico poleward to the the Hudson Bay. Upstream a shortwave ridge is moving eastward across the spine of the Rocky Mountains. Behind this ridge is the next shortwave trough which moved inland from California and now resides in the Intermountain West. At the surface, a cold front has descended down upon the north Gulf coast and is stalling. High pressure over the Ozarks is helping to drive this front and effectively stalling it along the coast as it moves east. Another high pressure cell over the upper Missouri River Valley is quickly moving southeast and will reinforce the aforementioned high pressure. Further upstream, an elongated surface trough is in its infancy stage along the lee of the Rocky Mountains in response to the weak upper level shortwave in the Intermountain West.

Taking a look closer at home, Key West radar shows a diminishing trend on the shower activity. For a while a narrow band of moderate to heavy showers sat between the eastern end of Key West and Big Coppitt Key. Some locations received around or just over 1 inch, especially over Stock Island and Boca Chica. This activity for the most part has tapered back somewhat to the south and southwest of the Lower Keys. Another narrow band of isolated showers extends from the Bayside waters, across the Middle Keys, and nearshore waters south of the Middle Keys. This activity is moving northwest. As for temperatures, they are in the lower to mid 80s with the exception of Key West and vicinity where the rain has kept temperatures in the upper 70s. Winds are light around 10 mph from the east and southeast across the entire island chain.

Short Term Update - Additional showers remain possible through the remainder of the day as weak speed convergence will persist along with increasing moisture flux. The 12Z RAOB sounding this morning showed a PW value of 1.73 inches which sits above the 90 percentile for this time of year. With that being said, a subsidence layer with drier air was centered around 700 mb and will limit growth. Some of the stronger activity may be able to break through this layer given the decent instability, as there was an isolated lightning strike south of Sand Key as of the writing of this discussion. Even with the decent instability in place, the lack of any large scale ascent and the presence of the dry layer in the mid levels will limit the areal coverage of any additional would-be thunderstorms. As such PoPs will be kept at 20 percent. Temperatures are on par to reach to near record levels again. Today's record for the high temperature at Key West is 85 degrees while Marathon's is 86 degrees. Otherwise, no changes planned or needed.

MARINE. Winds have slacken this morning to light to gentle breezes across the waters north of the island chain with gentle to occasional moderate breezes across Hawk Channel and the Florida Straits. This slackening will be brief as the pressure gradient will be increasing tonight in advance of the cold front that will stall along the Gulf coast. Model guidance is indicating a significant pressure difference of around 8 mb between Jacksonville and Key West which coincides with a Small Craft Advisory for our entire marine district. For now, will headline a Small Craft Advisory may be needed for Gulf waters, Hawk Channel and the Straits of Florida but retain 15 to 20 knots. Stay tuned to later marine forecasts. Thereafter, moderate east winds on Thursday afternoon and night will abate appreciably from Friday through most of this weekend.

AVIATION. VFR conditions to prevail at the Key West and Marathon terminals. Vicinity showers are expected throughout the day for Key West due to a convergence zone near the Lower Keys. These showers may produce brief periods of sub VFR conditions. East to southeast winds are expected through this afternoon, becoming northeasterly tonight as a cold front approaches the island chain.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. GM . None.

Public/Marine/Fire . LIW Aviation/Nowcasts . SDR Data Collection . NB

Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL 4 mi52 min SE 7 G 11 82°F 77°F1021.8 hPa
SMKF1 - Sombrero Key, FL 8 mi32 min SE 8 G 9.9 80°F 75°F
LONF1 - Long Key, FL 12 mi32 min 80°F 1020.7 hPa75°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 20 mi82 min 76°F
LRKF1 - Little Rabbit Key, FL 20 mi142 min 76°F
JKYF1 - Johnson Key, FL 23 mi82 min 77°F
MUKF1 - Murray Key, FL 26 mi82 min 77°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 28 mi82 min 77°F
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL 28 mi82 min E 4.1 77°F
BKYF1 29 mi82 min 78°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 33 mi82 min 78°F
TBYF1 34 mi82 min 78°F
WWEF1 35 mi142 min 75°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 37 mi82 min 77°F
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 37 mi82 min 76°F
LRIF1 39 mi82 min 76°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 39 mi82 min 77°F
CWAF1 39 mi142 min 75°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 42 mi142 min 75°F
NRRF1 42 mi82 min 74°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 43 mi142 min 77°F
SREF1 43 mi82 min 74°F
KYWF1 - 8724580 - Key West, FL 43 mi52 min ESE 1.9 G 5.1 78°F 81°F1022.1 hPa
JBYF1 43 mi82 min 77°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 44 mi142 min 75°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 45 mi82 min 73°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 46 mi142 min 76°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 46 mi82 min 76°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 47 mi142 min 74°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 48 mi82 min 78°F
HREF1 48 mi82 min 73°F
THRF1 48 mi142 min 75°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 48 mi82 min 71°F
SANF1 - Sand Key, FL 49 mi32 min SE 12 G 15 77°F 1020.5 hPa73°F

Wind History for Vaca Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Florida Keys - Marathon International Airport, FL1 mi29 minVar 610.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F75°F85%1021.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTH

Wind History from MTH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8SE7SE8SE6SE7SE7SE7E6E4SE8E7SE8SE8SE7SE7SE6SE7SE6SE7SE7SE5SE6SE56
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Tide / Current Tables for Vaca Key-Fat Deer Key bridge, Florida
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Vaca Key-Fat Deer Key bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:23 AM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:16 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:31 AM EST     1.31 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:43 PM EST     0.41 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:23 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:42 PM EST     2.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.1-0.1-0.10.20.50.81.11.31.31.10.90.60.50.40.60.91.31.71.921.91.61.1

Tide / Current Tables for Moser Channel (swingbridge), Florida Current
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Moser Channel (swingbridge)
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:45 AM EST     -2.32 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:09 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:16 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:06 AM EST     2.01 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:34 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:29 PM EST     -1.89 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:24 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:44 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:05 PM EST     1.28 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 10:54 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.5-2.2-2.3-2-1.2-0.20.91.721.91.40.6-0.4-1.3-1.8-1.8-1.4-0.70.211.31.10.6-0.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Key West, FL (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Key West, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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