Monday, October14, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Marathon, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 7:02PM Monday October 14, 2019 6:31 AM EDT (10:31 UTC) Moonrise 6:49PMMoonset 6:54AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ053 Expires:201910141430;;685952 Fzus52 Kkey 140820 Cwfkey Coastal Waters Forecast For The Florida Keys National Weather Service Key West Fl 420 Am Edt Mon Oct 14 2019 Florida Bay...hawk Channel And Straits Of Florida From Ocean Reef To South Of Dry Tortugas...and The Extreme Southeastern Gulf Of Mexico...including The Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary Seas Are Given As Significant Wave Height...which Is The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves. Individual Waves May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height. Gmz052>055-072>075-141430- Straits Of Florida From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out 20 Nm- Straits Of Florida From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out 20 Nm- Straits Of Florida From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To South Of Halfmoon Shoal Out 20 Nm- Straits Of Florida From Halfmoon Shoal To 20 Nm West Of Dry Tortugas Out 20 Nm- Straits Of Florida From Ocean Reef To Craig Key 20 To 60 Nm Out- Straits Of Florida From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge 20 To 60 Nm Out- Straits Of Florida From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To South Of Halfmoon Shoal 20 To 60 Nm Out- Straits Of Florida From Halfmoon Shoal To 20 Nm West Of Dry Tortugas 20 To 60 Nm Out- 420 Am Edt Mon Oct 14 2019
Today..East to southeast winds near 15 knots early, becoming east and decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Isolated showers.
Tonight..East winds near 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Isolated showers.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Isolated showers.
Tuesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots early, becoming east to southeast and decreasing to near 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Isolated showers.
Wednesday..Southeast winds near 5 knots, becoming variable in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Isolated showers.
Wednesday night..Variable winds near 5 knots. Seas around 1 foot. Isolated showers.
Thursday..East to southeast winds near 5 knots, except southwest winds 5 to 10 knots off the upper keys in the afternoon. Seas around 1 foot. Isolated showers.
Thursday night..Variable winds near 5 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Friday..East to southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Friday night..East to southeast winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marathon, FL
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location: 24.73, -81.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Key West, FL
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Fxus62 kkey 140817
afdkey
area forecast discussion
national weather service key west fl
417 am edt Mon oct 14 2019

Discussion
Mostly clear skies prevail across the keys on this early Monday
morning. Radar shows scattered showers over parts of florida bay
and the gulf waters, but the keys island chain remains dry, and
very little shower activity is present over the straits of florida.

Temperatures are hovering between 80 and 83 degrees, and winds on
land are from the east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

Surface analysis depicts high pressure centered off the
southeastern united states, with the keys lying within a moderate
pressure gradient along the SW flank of this high. The weak low
level trough that moved through the keys during the weekend is now
over the SE gulf of mexico. Moist ese low level flow prevails over
the keys in its wake, with mimic-tpw satellite imagery showing
estimated pw values around 1.8 inches extending eastward from the
keys to andros island. The 00z key west sounding found ample
moisture below 600 mb with pw of 1.91 inches, but the very dry
airmass now present above 600 mb reflects the building mid upper
level ridge over the area. Water vapor imagery shows this
deep strong ridge extending from the gulf of mexico across the
keys and south florida through the bahamas. This ridge will be the
dominant weather feature for the keys during much of this week.

For today, we expect the scattered showers currently on radar to
remain mainly over the gulf waters early this morning, with
coverage likely decreasing later this morning. With decelerating
easterly low level flow and the building ridge aloft, along with a
drier airmass filtering into the area from the east, there appears
to be little impetus for shower development, and will maintain
just 20 percent rain chances. Otherwise expect plenty of sunshine
with highs once again reaching the upper 80s.

Mainly dry weather will continue for tonight through Thursday, as
the deep ridge aloft provides dry and stable mid levels, and pws
run near to below normal for mid october. Although light winds
expected for Wednesday through Thursday could support mesoscale
processes such as cloud lines, the steadily lowering Sun angle and
suppressing influence of the ridge should prevent anything more
than isolated showers, with deep convection unlikely. For tonight
through Thursday, the forecast carries mostly clear skies, only
10-20 percent rain chances, and no mention of thunder.

Rain chances should increase again toward the end of the week and
into the weekend, as the subtropical ridge builds to the northeast
of the keys, with moist SE flow developing over our area. Have
maintained 30 percent pops along with isolated thunderstorms.

Otherwise, expect continued warm and humid weather, with no
indication of fronts approaching our area through the upcoming
weekend.

Marine
No advisories or cautionary headlines are currently in effect, and
none are expected through the upcoming week. Ese winds have been
running around 15 knots during the night at the c-man stations
along the reef, with slightly lower speeds observed in the gulf
waters. Winds should lull a bit today, then surge slightly back to
around 15 knots across the straits, hawk channel and the deep
gulf waters tonight. That should be the final wind surge of the
week, as the high to our north weakens beginning on Tuesday
causing easterly flow to die out. An extended period of light
winds is expected for Wednesday through Friday, with gentle ese
breezes finally returning to the waters beginning Friday night.

Aviation
Vfr conditions are expected to prevail at both island terminals
through the next 24 hours. Isolated showers early this morning will
give way to only few cumulus based near 2500 feet with easterly
surface winds near 10 knots.

Coastal flooding
Positive water level anomalies have increased during the past 24
hours and are now running around 1.2 feet above predicted levels
at the key west and vaca key tide gauges. The blackwater sound
gauge also continues to run above predicted levels. A coastal
flood advisory remains in effect for the middle and upper keys,
while a coastal flood statement remains in effect for the lower
keys. This coastal flooding episode has been ongoing for almost
three weeks now, and there is nothing to indicate that it will end
anytime soon.

Key watches warnings advisories
Fl... Coastal flood advisory for flz076-077.

Gm... None.

Public marine fire... Jacobson
aviation nowcasts... .Wlc
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL 4 mi61 min ESE 5.1 G 7 82°F 83°F1014.7 hPa
SMKF1 - Sombrero Key, FL 8 mi31 min E 11 G 13 82°F 75°F
LONF1 - Long Key, FL 12 mi31 min 82°F 1014.2 hPa (-0.0)76°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 20 mi91 min 82°F
LRKF1 - Little Rabbit Key, FL 20 mi151 min 83°F
JKYF1 - Johnson Key, FL 23 mi91 min 82°F
MUKF1 - Murray Key, FL 26 mi91 min 82°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 28 mi91 min 82°F
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL 28 mi91 min ENE 7 82°F
BKYF1 29 mi91 min 81°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 33 mi91 min 82°F
TBYF1 34 mi91 min 83°F
WWEF1 35 mi151 min 82°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 37 mi91 min 82°F
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 37 mi91 min 82°F
LRIF1 39 mi91 min 83°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 39 mi91 min 90°F
CWAF1 39 mi151 min 82°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 42 mi151 min 82°F
NRRF1 42 mi91 min 82°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 43 mi151 min 83°F
SREF1 43 mi91 min 82°F
KYWF1 - 8724580 - Key West, FL 43 mi61 min SE 6 G 11 82°F 87°F1014.8 hPa
JBYF1 43 mi91 min 83°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 44 mi151 min 82°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 45 mi91 min 82°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 46 mi151 min 82°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 46 mi91 min 83°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 47 mi151 min 82°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 48 mi91 min 83°F
HREF1 48 mi91 min 81°F
THRF1 48 mi151 min 82°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 48 mi91 min 81°F
SANF1 - Sand Key, FL 49 mi31 min ESE 13 G 14 83°F 1013.4 hPa (-0.0)76°F

Wind History for Vaca Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Florida Keys - Marathon International Airport, FL1 mi38 minESE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F73°F77%1014.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTH

Wind History from MTH (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Vaca Key-Fat Deer Key bridge, Florida
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Vaca Key-Fat Deer Key bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:58 AM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:54 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:57 AM EDT     1.87 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:00 PM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:45 PM EDT     2.02 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.410.60.40.30.40.71.11.51.81.91.81.51.20.80.60.50.60.91.31.7221.9

Tide / Current Tables for Moser Channel (swingbridge), Florida Current
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Moser Channel (swingbridge)
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:31 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:42 AM EDT     -2.15 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:58 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:54 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:45 AM EDT     1.84 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 01:04 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:07 PM EDT     -2.10 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:28 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:56 PM EDT     1.46 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.5-0.5-1.4-2-2.1-1.8-1011.71.81.50.90.1-0.9-1.8-2.1-1.9-1.4-0.50.51.21.51.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Key West, FL (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Key West, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.