Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Big Pine Key, FL

FXUS62 KKEY 251903 AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 303 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 303 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 3035 A lovely and warm spring Friday is underway across the Florida Keys this afternoon. The broken lines of showers from this morning have deteriorated into a few isolated cells dotted across the western Straits of Florida and Gulf waters near the Dry Tortugas.
Thunderstorms are no longer ongoing on the periphery of our western waters as the latest CIMSS MIMIC PW image notes a swath of dry air over the Keys. Temperatures across the island chain have a bit more range than this morning. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes observed along the Reef are keeping more exposed areas closer to ocean temperatures in the upper 70s while more inland areas like the Big Pine RAWS were allowed to rise up into the mid to upper 80s.

No big changes to the short term forecast this package. The low level high pressure off northeast CONUS will continue to promote moderate to occasionally fresh breezes into tonight as it starts to meander off into the western North Atlantic. Looking upstream of our current windfield, the patch of tropical moisture currently over the south end of The Bahamas appears to have a trajectory aimed south of our CWA Combining this with gradually decreasing winds will result in merely slight chance PoPs tonight to keep chances near normal. That being said, guidance suggests more mid level moisture pushing in late overnight and early tomorrow morning, but have opted to keep dime PoPs through tomorrow and tomorrow night for now.

This weekend, ridging will move in from the Gulf and build in over the southeast CONUS. By the start of the work week, a surface high will once again extend across the Eastern Seaboard and effectively replacing the old one. Dry and inactive conditions will then be reinforced as gentle to moderate easterly breezes prevail throughout the work week. This will generally deflect mid latitude systems off to our north until the pattern looks to become more amplified by next weekend.
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