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GMZ042 Hawk Channel From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To Halfmoon Shoal Out To The Reef- 1023 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft should exercise caution until winds decrease...
This afternoon..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, decreasing to near 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, subsiding to 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters choppy, becoming a light chop. Isolated showers.
Tonight..Variable winds near 5 knots, becoming west to northwest and increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters smooth, becoming a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight.
Monday..North winds near 20 knots, decreasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet, except 4 to 6 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters rough, becoming choppy.
Monday night..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, except 5 to 6 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters very rough.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, except 5 to 6 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters very rough. Isolated showers.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, except 5 to 6 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters very rough. Scattered showers.
Wednesday..Northeast to east winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, except 4 to 6 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters very rough. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Northeast to east winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, except 5 to 6 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters very rough. Scattered showers.
Thursday..Northeast to east winds near 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, except 4 to 6 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters rough. Scattered showers.
Thursday night..East winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, except 4 to 6 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters very rough. Numerous showers.

GMZ005 Synopsis For Keys Coastal Waters From Ocean Reef To Dry Tortugas 1023 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis..Moderate to fresh breezes will slacken this afternoon and evening, becoming northwest to north overnight as a cold front moves through the florida keys coastal waters. A large area of high pressure across the eastern united states will maintain strong breezes Monday through Thursday, well after the short blast of cooler and drier air.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream as of december 09...
45 nm south of dry tortugas light...on loggerhead key. 15 nm south of cosgrove shoal light...off the marquesas keys. 10 nm south of sand key light...off key west. 11 nm south of looe key...off big pine key. 17 nm south of sombrero key light...off marathon. 21 nm southeast of alligator reef light...off islamorada. 11 nm southeast of molasses reef light...off key largo. 5 nm east of carysfort reef light...off ocean reef.
gulf stream information courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KMFL 101156 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 656 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 226 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Conditions start becoming unsettled today as a strong mid level trough progresses across the eastern US, pushing a cold front across the SE US and the Florida peninsula. Ahead of the front, SSE winds will become breezy and gusty, with cloud cover gradually increasing across much of the area into the afternoon. PWATs are forecast to gradually increase up to the 1.5 to 1.7 inch range as the front nears our area, which will support enhanced convection over the coastal waters first, and then spreading over land.
Latest POPs remain in the 40 to 60 percent chance, with a chance of thunderstorms late Sunday evening and through the night. Can’t rule out a few stronger cells with gusty to damaging winds and frequent lightning, especially along the Atlantic coastline where coastal convergence may promote deeper convection.

The front will clear our area by early Monday morning and an area of high pressure will start to build in from the SE US. This should usher a brief period of dry, quiet weather as cooler, drier air advects over our area. It will also help keep daytime temps on Monday in the 70s and overnight temperatures in the mid 50s (over the interior) and mid 60s (along the East Coast). Winds behind the front will remain breezy, with northerly to northeasterly winds 15-20 kts.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 226 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Long range solutions keep the decaying boundary lingering near the Florida Keys for much of the extended period, supporting enhanced pressure gradients across the southern half of the peninsula. Therefore, expect periods of breezy and gusty northeasterly winds, especially in the afternoon hours across much of South FL. By late Wednesday and through the end of the week, models suggest another surge of moisture as the decaying boundary retrogrades across the area. A stratiform deck should accompany the returning front, with POPs jumping back into the 50, 60, or even 70 percent range, especially around the east coast, on Thursday. Latest ensemble members show possible PWATs of up to 2 inches Thursday afternoon, and potential for isolated max QPF values of up to 4 inches. But since it is too early to embrace any particular solution, the forecast philosophy will remain on the conservative side in terms of QPF, and continue to adjust accordingly as new guidance becomes available.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Generally VFR conditions and gusty S-SE flow through early afternoon before a front begins to move through the area. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase after 20Z with the potential for bouts of sub-VFR at terminals directly impacted by convection.
Short-fused AMDs for sub-MVFR cigs/vsbys may be needed. The front should be past the terminals around 06Z-09Z, with dry conditions and N-NW flow following behind it.

MARINE
Issued at 226 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Breezy southerly to southeasterly winds at 15-20 kts will prevail today ahead of an approaching cold front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this evening and overnight as the front pushes through.

Winds and seas will increase behind the front starting tonight and persisting through the end of the week, resulting in hazardous marine conditions across all local waters. Winds are forecast to increase up to 20-25 kts with gusts up to 30-35 kts by the middle of the week, while seas could build up to 6-11 feet across the Atlantic waters. With this in mind, a Small Craft Advisory will be in effect for the Gulf Waters starting 10PM tonight through at least Monday evening. For the local Atlantic waters, a Small Craft Advisory will also go into effect at 4AM tomorrow morning lasting through at least Tuesday evening.

BEACHES
Issued at 226 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

The risk of rip currents along Atlantic beaches will remain elevated into next week thanks to onshore flow. A Rip Current Statement remains in effect through this evening. Behind the cold front, the rip current threat will also increase along the Gulf beaches.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 83 66 75 65 / 20 40 10 10 West Kendall 84 63 75 61 / 20 40 10 10 Opa-Locka 84 65 75 64 / 20 40 10 10 Homestead 83 65 76 64 / 20 40 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 83 65 74 66 / 20 50 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 83 64 74 65 / 20 40 10 10 Pembroke Pines 84 64 74 63 / 20 40 10 10 West Palm Beach 83 62 72 64 / 20 40 10 10 Boca Raton 83 64 74 65 / 20 50 10 10 Naples 82 59 71 54 / 20 30 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ630-650-651-670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday for GMZ656-657-676.

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Tavernier Creek
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Sun -- 12:32 AM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:34 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:52 AM EST     1.52 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 01:04 PM EST     0.33 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:39 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:33 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:48 PM EST     1.42 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Tavernier Creek, Hwy. 1 bridge, Hawk Channel, Florida, Tide feet

Long Key
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:15 AM EST     -1.38 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:35 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:35 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:53 AM EST     1.36 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:17 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:02 PM EST     -1.11 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:40 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:12 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:34 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:48 PM EST     0.84 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 09:38 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current, knots

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