Sunrise 6:32 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 4:38 PM   Moonset 3:33 AM

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GMZ042 Hawk Channel From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To Halfmoon Shoal Out To The Reef- 416 Pm Edt Mon May 20 2024
Tonight - West to northwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northwest to north 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop, becoming smooth to a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Tuesday - North winds near 5 knots, becoming variable. Seas 1 foot or less. NEarshore waters smooth. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Tuesday night - Variable winds near 5 knots, becoming northeast to east. Seas 1 foot or less. NEarshore waters smooth. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Wednesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas around 1 foot, building to 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop, becoming a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Wednesday night - East to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming east near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop, becoming a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Thursday - East winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Thursday night - East winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Friday - East to southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Friday night through Saturday night - East to southeast winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.

GMZ005 Synopsis For Keys Coastal Waters From Ocean Reef To Dry Tortugas 416 Pm Edt Mon May 20 2024
Synopsis - By later this afternoon or this evening, Thunderstorms will decrease in coverage as breezes veer to the northwest and increase. Tuesday through Wednesday, breezes will gradually shift to the east as high pressure in the western north atlantic builds back in across the region. Gentle east to southeast breezes will resume Friday through Saturday.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream as of may 15, 2024 - .
49 nm south of dry tortugas light - .on loggerhead key. 32 nm south of cosgrove shoal light - .off the marquesas keys. 24 nm south of sand key light - .off key west. 27 nm south of looe key - .off big pine key. 29 nm south of sombrero key light - .off marathon. 8 nm southeast of alligator reef light - .off islamorada. 3 nm southeast of molasses reef light - .off key largo.
gulf stream information courtesy of the national weather service in key west.

FXUS62 KMFL 201820 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 220 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

New LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Portions of southeast Florida could see scattered shower activity once again today as a diffuse front remains draped over the area, with a weak surface low just east of the peninsula. The 12Z sounding today showed ample instability and moisture in the lower levels which could support a few strong thunderstorms mainly along the sea breeze boundary over the East Coast. However, lack of upper level dynamics and weaker shear/lapse rates parameters (as compared to yesterday) will help reduce the chances for severe impacts, with only a few isolated stronger storms potentially producing gusty winds and small hail.

Temperatures will remain above average as westerly/southwesterly winds prevail across the area this afternoon, but lower dew points today compared to the last couple of days should help keep heat index values at or below 100 degrees.

The front will largely have worked its way through the area by Tuesday, and surface flow will generally begin to veer more east- northeast through the day. Rain chances will remain elevated as a trailing shortwave pivots into the area, with at least scattered storms likely igniting along the two sea breezes (with the northeast winds tending to favor southern portions of the area). Temperatures will drop into the upper 80s and lower 90s which while still a few degrees above average, may actually feel pleasant after the mid-May heatwave.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 220 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

By the mid-week, the mid-level shortwave propagates to the east of the region over the western Atlantic waters. The 500mb flow over South Florida will veer to a northerly direction ushering in reinforcing dry air across the region. At the surface, ridging situated over the southeastern United States will allow for relatively light winds across the region. Therefore, with a lack of synoptic support, mesoscale patterns, such as the sea-breeze circulation, will dictate temperatures and the most probable locations for convective initiation and coverage. Typical thunderstorm hazards, such as heavy rainfall and gusty winds, will be possible, but we cannot rule out isolated strong to severe pulse storms that are able to take advantage of the localized maximized ascent along boundary collisions even in the background of a fairly benign pattern.

This benign weather will continue for much of the long-term period as surface ridging remains firmly in place and synoptic features remain to the north of South Florida. With the advection of the surface ridge to the east, easterly surface flow across the region will remain dominant. This will act to feature the hottest temperatures across southwestern Florida for the time being as the Atlantic sea-breeze is able to traverse further inland. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s to low 90s across the east coast of South Florida to temperatures in the low to mid 90s across southwestern Florida. Although heat indices will be less oppressive then the past couple of days, heat safety precautions should still be followed, especially for vulnerable populations.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Generally VFR conditions for all TAF sites today, although sub-VFR conditions are possible for East Coast sites this afternoon as SHRA/TSRA develop near the area. W-SW winds 8-12 kts will prevail today, but some East Coast sites could see the sea breeze intruding after 19Z, resulting in a E-SE wind shift. Light and variable winds overnight as conditions improve, with more easterly winds possible tomorrow across much of the area.

MARINE
Issued at 122 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Generally benign conditions should prevail across local waters through the period. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be expected today and tomorrow as a diffuse front gradually moves across the region, with locally enhanced winds and seas possible in storms particularly over the Atlantic waters. Conditions will improve into the week as high pressure builds over the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 76 88 75 88 / 30 50 50 50 West Kendall 73 90 73 90 / 20 50 40 50 Opa-Locka 75 89 75 90 / 30 50 40 50 Homestead 75 89 75 88 / 30 50 50 50 Fort Lauderdale 75 87 76 86 / 30 50 50 50 N Ft Lauderdale 74 87 75 87 / 40 40 40 50 Pembroke Pines 75 91 76 91 / 30 40 40 50 West Palm Beach 73 87 73 87 / 30 40 40 40 Boca Raton 74 88 75 88 / 30 40 40 50 Naples 74 91 74 92 / 10 20 20 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.

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Tavernier Creek
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Mon -- 01:43 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:32 AM EDT     1.25 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:55 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:38 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:11 PM EDT     1.36 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Tavernier Creek, Hwy. 1 bridge, Hawk Channel, Florida, Tide feet

Long Key
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:38 AM EDT     -1.08 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:49 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:43 AM EDT     0.83 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:27 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:34 PM EDT     -1.27 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:50 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:38 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:10 PM EDT     1.26 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:23 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current, knots

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