Tavernier, FL Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tavernier, FL

June 18, 2024 2:33 AM EDT (06:33 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:30 AM   Sunset 8:16 PM
Moonrise 4:18 PM   Moonset 2:35 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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GMZ042 Hawk Channel From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To Halfmoon Shoal Out To The Reef- 1024 Pm Edt Mon Jun 17 2024

.small craft advisory in effect - .

Overnight - East winds near 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. NEarshore waters rough. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.

Tuesday - East winds near 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. NEarshore waters rough. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.

Tuesday night - East winds near 20 knots, decreasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. NEarshore waters rough, becoming choppy. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.

Wednesday - East winds 15 to 20 knots, increasing to near 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. NEarshore waters choppy, becoming rough. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.

Wednesday night - East winds near 20 knots, decreasing to near 15 knots after. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. NEarshore waters rough, becoming a moderate chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.

Thursday - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.

Thursday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.

Friday - East to southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.

Friday night - East to southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.

Saturday and Saturday night - East to southeast winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.

GMZ005 Synopsis For Keys Coastal Waters From Ocean Reef To Dry Tortugas 1024 Pm Edt Mon Jun 17 2024

Synopsis - Strong surface high pressure centered off the new england coast working in tandem with falling pressures over the yucatan peninsula and the bay of campeche is expected to result in moderate to fresh breezes tonight through mid week. An area of low pressure may develop mid week a few hundred miles north of the central bahamas towards mid week and move towards the north to central florida coastline. This may result in a brief slackening of breezes before high pressure takes control again resulting in freshening east to southeasterly breezes late week.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream as of june 12 - .
66 nm south of dry tortugas light - .on loggerhead key. 24 nm south of cosgrove shoal light - .off the marquesas keys. 17 nm south of sand key light - .off key west. 28 nm south of looe key - .off big pine key. 8 nm south of sombrero key light - .off marathon. 4 nm south of alligator reef light - .off islamorada. 2 nm south of molasses reef light - .off key largo.
gulf stream information courtesy of the national weather service in key west.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tavernier, FL
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Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 180509 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 109 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 119 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

A band of enhanced moisture on the leading edge of a westward moving low-mid level shortwave trough will move across southern and western sections of the area, mainly from the Miami area westward to Collier County. This area will continue to have the higher rain chances this afternoon, decreasing from east to west through the late afternoon hours. Rainfall amounts generally from a quarter to a third of an inch can be expected, with localized amounts of a half-inch or slightly higher. A few thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon, with enough diurnal instability characterized by CAPE values around 2000 j/kg in the aforementioned areas. Drier air depicted in derived GOES Total Precipitable Water data (values less than 1.5 inches)
over the Bahamas are poised to move over the southern Florida peninsula area on the back side of the shortwave trough this afternoon, leading to a mainly dry afternoon and evening over most areas. A rather tight pressure gradient from surface high pressure building from the western North Atlantic will lead to breezy east winds gusting to around 25 mph this afternoon and early this evening.

Mostly dry conditions are expected to begin Tuesday as the axis of the relatively dry air should be over South Florida. However, as the day progresses we expect moisture levels to increase ahead of a quick-moving low level trough embedded in the fresh easterly wind flow, with scattered west-moving showers and thunderstorms becoming more common during the second half of the day. Highest PoPs (50-60%)are in the Palm Beach County where the area of higher moisture values are expected to arrive Tuesday afternoon, with generally 30-40% PoPs elsewhere. Breezy east winds will continue, although perhaps slightly less so than today.

As far as temperatures go, went on the higher end of the NBM temperature distribution, with near 90 east coast and mid 90s west coast. Heat index values will approach 105F in the Naples area this afternoon. The presence of the drier air at least for the first half of tomorrow will lower heat index values slightly, although high temperatures should still range from near 90 east to the mid 90s western interior and Gulf coast.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 218 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Main feature to watch for the middle to end of the week will be a disturbance several hundred miles east of the Bahamas associated with a surface trough. This feature has a low end chance of developing tropical characteristics over the next 7 days. The few ensemble members that do show a surface low developing later this week have it N/NE of our forecast area, but it will still be worth keeping an eye on. Regardless of development, an increase in moisture is expected across South FL late week into the weekend, which will bring higher chances of showers and thunderstorms back to the forecast. Overall QPF totals over the next 7 days (1-2 inches)
aren't impressive for this time of year, but given wet antecedent conditions in place will need to monitor closely as any heavy rain over the urban areas may cause some issues.

High temperatures from mid week through the weekend will be around seasonal norms thanks to persistent easterly flow, ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. Overnight lows will remain mild ranging from the middle 70s over the interior to around 80 close to the coasts.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Mainly VFR prevails today, but some passing showers are possible in the early afternoon hours over the Atlantic terminals. Will keep no restrictions in the TAFs for now with VCSH after 18Z.
Easterly winds remain breezy with gusts in the 25-30kt range this afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 119 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Moderate to fresh easterly winds persisting through mid-week will build seas to 5-7 feet over the Atlantic waters Tuesday night and Wednesday, and 3-5 feet over the Gulf waters. Small Craft Advisory will continue through Tuesday, and likely be extended through Wednesday. Some slight decrease in the E-SE winds for the end of the week is expected to lead to lower seas to end the week.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will periodically affect the local waters, becoming more numerous Tuesday night and continuing through the remainder of the week.

BEACHES
Issued at 119 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

The moderate to fresh easterly winds will keep a high risk of rip currents at the Atlantic beaches for most of the rest of the week.
Surf will pick up to around 3-4 feet Tuesday and Wednesday at the Palm Beach and Broward county beaches.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 90 78 87 78 / 40 40 60 50 West Kendall 91 77 89 77 / 30 30 60 50 Opa-Locka 92 79 89 78 / 40 30 60 50 Homestead 89 79 87 78 / 30 40 60 50 Fort Lauderdale 89 79 86 79 / 40 40 60 50 N Ft Lauderdale 90 79 87 79 / 40 40 60 50 Pembroke Pines 90 80 90 79 / 40 30 60 50 West Palm Beach 90 77 87 77 / 40 30 60 50 Boca Raton 90 78 87 78 / 40 40 60 50 Naples 94 77 92 76 / 30 30 60 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for FLZ168-172- 173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ630-650-651- 670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for GMZ656-657-676.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 9 mi153 min 84°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 12 mi153 min 84°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 13 mi153 min 84°F
THRF1 13 mi153 min 86°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 14 mi153 min 85°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 16 mi153 min 82°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 16 mi153 min 84°F
MNBF1 16 mi153 min 84°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 16 mi153 min 84°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 17 mi153 min 84°F
JBYF1 17 mi153 min 85°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 18 mi153 min 84°F
MDKF1 19 mi153 min 85°F
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL 19 mi153 min13 86°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 20 mi153 min 84°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 20 mi153 min 88°F
TBYF1 21 mi153 min 86°F
LRKF1 - Little Rabbit Key, FL 24 mi153 min 84°F
BKYF1 25 mi153 min 83°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 25 mi153 min 84°F
JKYF1 - Johnson Key, FL 28 mi153 min 83°F
LONF1 - Long Key, FL 28 mi33 minE 20G25 83°F 29.8976°F
MUKF1 - Murray Key, FL 31 mi153 min 84°F
BBSF1 32 mi123 min 83°F
LRIF1 33 mi153 min 85°F
WWEF1 33 mi153 min 84°F
NRRF1 36 mi153 min 87°F
CWAF1 39 mi153 min 83°F
BBNF1 41 mi123 min 83°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 41 mi153 min 84°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 41 mi153 min 84°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 43 mi153 min 85°F
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL 44 mi45 minESE 6G13 82°F 86°F
BSKF1 45 mi153 min 85°F
SREF1 45 mi153 min 85°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 46 mi153 min 85°F
SMKF1 - Sombrero Key, FL 47 mi33 min 29.88


Wind History for Vaca Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
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Wind History graph: HST
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Tide / Current for Molasses Reef, Florida
   
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Molasses Reef
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Mon -- 03:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:25 AM EDT     1.89 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:45 AM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:16 PM EDT     2.04 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Molasses Reef, Florida, Tide feet
12
am
0.5
1
am
0.7
2
am
1
3
am
1.4
4
am
1.7
5
am
1.9
6
am
1.9
7
am
1.6
8
am
1.3
9
am
0.8
10
am
0.4
11
am
0.2
12
pm
0.1
1
pm
0.3
2
pm
0.6
3
pm
1.1
4
pm
1.5
5
pm
1.9
6
pm
2
7
pm
2
8
pm
1.7
9
pm
1.4
10
pm
0.9
11
pm
0.6


Tide / Current for Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current
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Long Key
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Mon -- 12:10 AM EDT     -0.83 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:22 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:09 AM EDT     0.62 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:56 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:09 PM EDT     -1.12 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:33 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:59 PM EDT     1.07 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:13 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current, knots
12
am
-0.8
1
am
-0.8
2
am
-0.5
3
am
-0.2
4
am
0.2
5
am
0.5
6
am
0.6
7
am
0.6
8
am
0.4
9
am
-0
10
am
-0.5
11
am
-1
12
pm
-1.1
1
pm
-1
2
pm
-0.8
3
pm
-0.3
4
pm
0.2
5
pm
0.7
6
pm
1
7
pm
1.1
8
pm
1
9
pm
0.7
10
pm
0.1
11
pm
-0.4


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of southeast   
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Miami, FL,




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