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GMZ042 Hawk Channel From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To Halfmoon Shoal Out To The Reef- 1029 Am Est Thu Dec 7 2023
.small craft should exercise caution until winds decrease...
This afternoon..North to northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming northeast and decreasing to near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet, except 3 to 5 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters choppy, becoming a moderate chop.
Tonight..Northeast to east winds near 15 knots, becoming east. Seas 2 to 3 feet, except 3 to 4 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters a moderate chop.
Friday..East to southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, decreasing to near 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters choppy, becoming a moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Friday night..East to southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Isolated showers.
Saturday..East winds 15 to 20 knots, decreasing to near 15 knots. Seas subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters choppy, becoming a moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Saturday night..East to southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, decreasing to near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters choppy, becoming a moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Sunday..East to southeast winds near 15 knots, becoming southeast to south and decreasing to near 10 knots. Seas subsiding to 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop, becoming a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..South to southwest winds near 10 knots, becoming northwest and increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas subsiding to around 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop, becoming choppy. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Monday..Northwest to north winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming north to northeast. Seas building to 2 to 3 feet, except building to 4 to 6 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters choppy. Isolated showers.
Monday night..Northeast winds near 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, except 4 to 6 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters rough. Isolated showers.

GMZ005 Synopsis For Keys Coastal Waters From Ocean Reef To Dry Tortugas 1029 Am Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis..Moderate to occasionally fresh breezes will gradually veer from the northeast to the southeast this afternoon through Saturday night, as high pressure over the southeast moves eastward into the western north atlantic. Another cold front will approach the florida keys coastal waters on Sunday and Sunday night, with slackening breezes and a bout of unsettled weather possible ahead of the front. Fresh to strong northeast breezes are expected in the wake of the frontal passage for Monday.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream as of december 05...
56 nm south of dry tortugas light...on loggerhead key. 20 nm south of cosgrove shoal light...off the marquesas keys. 15 nm south of sand key light...off key west. 17 nm south of looe key...off big pine key. 20 nm south of sombrero key light...off marathon. 12 nm southeast of alligator reef light...off islamorada. 9 nm southeast of molasses reef light...off key largo. 2 nm east of carysfort reef light...off ocean reef.
gulf stream information courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KMFL 071732 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1232 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1208 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

Not much to discuss in terms of local weather impacts through the short term forecast period. An extremely dry parcel of air remains over the Southern Florida peninsula this afternoon with 850mb RHs reading less than 10% on the most recent MFL sounding. This significant dry air coupled with a lack of synoptic and even mesoscale forcing will lead to a dry remainder of today and a dry Friday to close out the week. With a return to easterly flow expected tomorrow, a few weak isolated showers will be possible for easternmost areas, but these will be extremely short-lived and weak in nature. The vast majority of the area will remain dry on Friday with only a trace of rainfall expected for areas that may experience a shower.

As high pressure propagates eastward through the day today, surface flow will veer more easterly by the evening hours today which should act to moderate the low temperatures this evening and subsequently, high temperatures for Friday as well as we lose the northerly component to the wind. Lows will generally range from the mid to upper 60s along the coasts with mid 50s for interior areas. Highs on Friday will be in the upper 70s.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 223 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

As the high-pressure system advances into the western Atlantic, a gradual shift in wind direction to a southeasterly orientation is anticipated in the early weekend. This shift will facilitate a progressive increase in moisture advection, accompanied by a moderation of temperatures during this period. While the majority of the region is expected to remain dry on Friday and Saturday, sufficient lower-level moisture will be present to support a marginal chance of showers, primarily over the east coast areas each day. Saturdays highs are forecast to reach the lower 80s in most areas.

The meteorological pattern is set to undergo a transition on Sunday, as an intensifying mid-level trough emerges from the Plains and extends into the southeastern United States.
Concurrently, a cold front will advance through the Southeast, extending into Northern and Central Florida as well as the Gulf of Mexico. Recent ensemble guidance is converging on a scenario where the mid-level trough digs further south, coupled with the development of a secondary surface low over the Ohio River Valley, subsequently tracking towards the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states. While specifics remain uncertain, the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms for South Florida appears to be increasing ahead of the frontal boundary, particularly into Sunday afternoon and evening. Although the most potent dynamics and instability are currently forecast to stay north of the region, the potential for a few strong thunderstorms cannot be entirely dismissed, given the latest model trends indicating a more pronounced mid-level trough and further southward development of the surface low. However, considerable uncertainty persists regarding the exact trajectory of the surface low, which could significantly influence the potential for strong thunderstorm development. This aspect of the forecast will continue to be closely monitored.

Post frontal passage, the front is expected to move through South Florida Sunday night into early Monday, stalling just south of the region over the Florida Straits. Current guidance suggests the front will remain sufficiently proximate to maintain increased cloud cover and a chance of showers, along with a breezy northeasterly flow. Forecast uncertainty remains elevated for this segment, given its position at the edge of the forecasting period. Mondays high temperatures are anticipated to range from the lower 70s in the Lake region to the upper 70s in the east coast metropolitan areas. With a northeasterly wind shift, Tuesdays temperatures are expected to moderate, with mid-70s west of the Lake and around 80 degrees in the southern regions.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

VFR prevails at all terminals through the period. Surface flow will slowly turn more Northeast over the next couple of hours.
Dry conditions and winds 10-15kts are expected through the remainder of the day.

MARINE
Issued at 1208 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

Hazardous marine conditions today will gradually subside as winds reduce and turn out of the northeast with time. Despite this decrease in wind intensity, hazardous marine conditions may linger over the Atlantic waters this morning, with wave heights ranging from 5 to 8 feet. Winds will continue to shift from the east by Friday and southeast by the weekend. Thunderstorms cannot be ruled out later in the weekend ahead of an approaching cold front.

BEACHES
Issued at 1208 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

A high risk for rip currents will be maintained through at least the end of the week. This elevated threat may persist into the weekend as winds retain their onshore component.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 67 78 70 81 / 0 0 10 10 West Kendall 62 79 67 82 / 0 0 10 10 Opa-Locka 65 79 70 82 / 0 0 10 10 Homestead 66 79 70 81 / 10 0 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 67 78 70 81 / 0 10 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 66 78 70 81 / 0 10 10 10 Pembroke Pines 64 79 69 81 / 0 0 10 10 West Palm Beach 64 77 68 81 / 0 10 10 10 Boca Raton 66 79 70 81 / 10 10 10 10 Naples 59 79 64 82 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ650-651- 670-671.

GM...None.

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Molasses Reef
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:49 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:56 AM EST     2.16 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:58 AM EST     0.76 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:57 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:03 PM EST     2.19 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:32 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:22 PM EST     0.47 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Molasses Reef, Florida, Tide feet

Long Key
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:26 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:51 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:46 AM EST     0.81 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:44 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:40 AM EST     -0.87 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:55 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:59 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:54 PM EST     0.69 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:34 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:44 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:51 PM EST     -1.06 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current, knots

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