Sunrise 6:33 AM   Sunset 8:03 PM Moonrise 3:46 PM   Moonset 3:04 AM

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GMZ042 Hawk Channel From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To Halfmoon Shoal Out To The Reef- 1029 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Overnight - East to southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast to south 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop, becoming a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.Sunday - Southeast to south winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest to west 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet, subsiding to around 1 foot. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop, becoming smooth to a light chop. Isolated showers.Sunday night - West to northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Monday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Monday night - Northwest winds near 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Tuesday - Variable winds near 5 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. NEarshore waters smooth. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Tuesday night - Northeast to east winds near 5 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. NEarshore waters smooth. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Wednesday - East to southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Wednesday night - East to southeast winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Thursday - East winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.Thursday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.

GMZ005 Synopsis For Keys Coastal Waters From Ocean Reef To Dry Tortugas 1029 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis - The western extent of a low-level ridge axis extends west-northwest through the bahamas and across the keys. Southeast breezes will tend to peak and lull overnight through Sunday as the heating and cooling of south florida and cuba modulate the local wind forecast. There may be a break in the rain-free conditions Sunday night through Tuesday, followed by variable breezes turning to the east Wednesday through Thursday.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream as of may 15, 2024 - .
49 nm south of dry tortugas light - .on loggerhead key. 32 nm south of cosgrove shoal light - .off the marquesas keys. 24 nm south of sand key light - .off key west. 27 nm south of looe key - .off big pine key. 29 nm south of sombrero key light - .off marathon. 8 nm southeast of alligator reef light - .off islamorada. 3 nm southeast of molasses reef light - .off key largo.
gulf stream information courtesy of the national weather service in key west.

FXUS62 KMFL 190627 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 227 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 225 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

The mid-lvl ridge which has been positioned over SFL the last couple days will be displaced southeast of the area today as a pronounced shortwave trough shifts southeastward toward the area (along with some lower-amplitude convectively-enhanced perturbations). At the surface, low pressure will develop off the FL/GA coast with a warm but relatively weak southwesterly flow prevailing over SFL, which should help pin the east coast sea breeze near the immediate coast (and perhaps not even progressing inland at all). The encroaching shortwave will result in both cooling mid-lvl temperatures and also increasing mid-lvl W-SWrly flow, which will support an increasingly favorable convective parameter space over portions of SFL this afternoon. Surface temperatures should once again increase well into the 90s which along with seasonably cool 500mb temps (-9/-10C) will result in steep lapse rates through the lower troposphere with SBCAPE values in excess of 3000-3500 J/kg along with DCAPE > 1200 J/kg progged. As mid-lvl flow increases, 0-6km bulk shear will likely increase to over 40 kts over northern portions of the area this afternoon which would favor organized multi-cell clusters with isolated supercells possible, particularly along any east coast sea breeze where shear will locally be enhanced.

The main questions regarding convective evolution and the overall severe threat will be the presence of increasing synoptic cloud cover ahead of the approaching wave along with the potential evolution/inland progression of the east coast sea breeze. Even with those question marks, given the aforementioned environment, there exists a (greater than climo) risk of large hail, damaging winds, and potentially even an isolated tornado (mostly dependent upon the sea breeze) with afternoon thunderstorms. The best chances of severe storms look to be over Palm Beach and Broward counties where the most favorable intersection between the increasing forcing, the sea breeze progression, and diurnal timing appears to exist.
This coincides with the latest day 1 outlook from SPC which places a slight risk over northern portions of the east coast, largely driven by the wind and hail risk.

The other concern of the day will be excessive heat as the hot air mass remains in place. It won't quite be as oppressive as yesterday (which basically featured record high heat indices for May) but peak apparent temperatures of 106-110 degrees look probable for at least Miami-Dade and Broward counties, so another heat advisory has been issued for those locations. Given that cloud cover and rain chances will increase by early afternoon over northern portions of the area, suspect that these areas should largely remain below advisory criteria. That being said, would not be surprised to see localized readings near advisory levels in portions of Collier and PB counties particularly if convection/cloud cover is slower to move in than currently forecast.

The weak low will remain over the Atlantic on Monday and a weak frontal boundary will shift southward towards the area. This, along with the once again pinned east coast sea breeze will support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms once again, although reduced instability and gradually decreasing large-scale ascent (as the trough shifts east)
should support a lower risk of severe storms than Sunday. Although temperatures and heat indices will remain above normal, they should be a few degrees lower than Sunday so heat headlines are not expected.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 225 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

The weak cold front should finally make it through the area on Tuesday although a trailing shortwave will likely support at least scattered showers and storms particularly over southern portions of the area closer to the boundary. Mid-lvl ridging should then build into the area for the mid-late week period, with generally light easterly surface flow prevailing as weak high pressure builds into the Atlantic. Drier air and the presence of the ridge will keep PoPs lower than the early week period (largely in the isolated-scattered category), with the synoptic easterly flow favoring the highest PoPs over the Interior and SW Florida. The easterly flow will result in cooler (but still above average) high temperatures over SEFL (mostly upper 80s) while low to mid 90s can be expected over SWFL and the Interior.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

L/V winds overnight before sea-breeze circulations pick up after sunrise. SHRA/TSRA will develop along boundaries and could impact terminals bringing sub-MVFR cigs/vis as well as erratic wind shifts, especially during the afternoon hours.

MARINE
Issued at 225 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Mainly benign marine conditions are expected over the period with light to moderate southwesterly to westerly flow expected today which will generally shift to the northwest on Monday as a cold front approaches. Scattered to Numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected today, with locally enhanced winds and seas possible in storms particularly over the Atlantic waters.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 93 77 91 75 / 50 70 80 50 West Kendall 95 75 92 72 / 40 70 80 40 Opa-Locka 94 77 92 75 / 50 70 80 50 Homestead 94 77 92 74 / 40 70 80 50 Fort Lauderdale 91 77 89 75 / 60 70 80 50 N Ft Lauderdale 92 77 90 75 / 70 60 80 50 Pembroke Pines 95 77 93 75 / 60 70 80 50 West Palm Beach 92 74 89 72 / 70 60 80 50 Boca Raton 93 75 91 74 / 70 60 80 50 Naples 91 77 89 74 / 50 50 50 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ071>074-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.

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Molasses Reef
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:16 AM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:18 AM EDT     2.03 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:33 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:56 PM EDT     2.15 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Molasses Reef, Florida, Tide feet

Long Key
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:57 AM EDT     -1.01 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:08 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:14 AM EDT     0.81 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 09:52 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:01 PM EDT     -1.15 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:14 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:38 PM EDT     1.13 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:40 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current, knots

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