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AMZ630 Biscayne Bay- 400 Pm Est Thu Nov 30 2023
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Bay waters a light chop.
Fri..E se winds 5 to 10 kt. Bay waters a light chop.
Fri night..E se winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Bay waters a moderate chop.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Bay waters a light chop.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Bay waters a light chop.
Sun..S se winds 5 to 10 kt. Bay waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..S sw winds 5 to 10 kt becoming W sw in the morning. Bay waters a light chop.
Mon..W nw winds 5 to 10 kt becoming N nw in the evening. Bay waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Mon night..N winds around 10 kt. Bay waters a light chop.
Tue..N ne winds around 10 kt. Bay waters a light chop.
Tue night..N winds around 10 kt. Bay waters a light chop.

AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 400 Pm Est Thu Nov 30 2023
Synopsis..
winds will shift to an easterly direction today and southeasterly on Friday into the weekend. Seas will remain 2-4 feet across atlantic waters and 1-3 feet across gulf waters.
gulf stream hazards: none.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of nov 30, 2023 at 12 utc...
the approximate location of the gulf stream is currently unavailable.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KMFL 301953 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 253 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

New LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1209 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

A surface ridge of high pressure situated across the western Atlantic waters will continue it's gradual progression eastward, continuing anti-cyclonic flow around the periphery of the ridge.
This will allow for breezy winds to remain out of an easterly direction today, acting to facilitate warm air advection in the low-level as onshore winds bring in an airmass that has been modified and moderated by the warm waters of the Gulfstream.
Simultaneously, we will start to see a gradual increase in moisture as a mid-to- upper level ridge amplifies in the Caribbean and starts to push northward from the Caribbean. PWATs are expected to rise back above 1.0" later today and over 1.5" on Friday. With the region still being dominated by high pressure, both today and Friday will remain predominantly dry but will see increasing cloud cover beginning today and the chance for a few isolated sprinkles mainly along the east coast. Temperatures will begin to rise today as warm air advection occurs with the ridge and will hit the upper 70s to low 80s today before rising further into the mid 80s on Friday.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 216 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

A mid to upper level ridge in the Carribean Sea will continue to push northward towards the region heading into the first part of the weekend. By the second half of the weekend, this mid level ridge will gradually start to flatten out as a mid level trough moves into the Southeastern portion of the Country. At the surface, high pressure will continue to push further into the western Atlantic as a cold front slowly pushes through the Southeast and into Northern Florida by the end of the weekend.
This will allow for South Florida to remain in the warm sector on both Saturday and Sunday with southeasterly flow on Saturday gradually veering to the south southwest on Sunday. As moisture advection proceeds through the weekend, isolated shower activity cannot be ruled out mainly over the east coast as well as the Atlantic waters during this time frame. With winds veering and become south southwesterly, high temperatures will soar into the mid to upper 80s across most areas both Saturday and Sunday.

For early next week, the weakening frontal boundary will approach and move through South Florida as Monday progresses. With the best dynamics and mid to upper level support remaining well off to the north, there will only be a slight chance of shower activity out ahead of the front as it pushes through. Behind the front, winds will become northerly and cold air advection begins to take place allowing for cooler and drier air to move into the region Monday night into Tuesday. High temperatures out ahead of the front on Monday will rise into the lower 80s, however, cooler temperatures will move into the region Monday night into Tuesday.

For the middle of the week, the latest ensemble guidance is hinting at the potential of a deeper trough digging into the Eastern Seaboard with the possibility of a stronger cold front approaching the region. Uncertainty remains high in the forecast during this time frame as guidance remains in disagreement with the timing and strength of the front as it approaches the region.
With this being at the end of the forecast period, this also adds to the uncertainty in the forecast during this time frame. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

VFR conditions throughout the TAF period with breezy to gusty easterly winds ongoing. Light easterly flow will prevail once again after sunset later today.

MARINE
Issued at 1209 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

Winds will continue out of an easterly direction today before shifting to a southeasterly direction by Friday into the upcoming weekend. Seas of 2-4ft are expected in the Atlantic and 1-2ft in the Gulf to end the week and enter the weekend. A few isolated showers over the area waters will be possible as well as moisture increases.

BEACHES
Issued at 1209 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue into the end of this week for the Atlantic beaches, with a high risk possible on Friday and over the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 71 83 74 84 / 0 10 10 10 West Kendall 67 83 71 85 / 0 10 10 10 Opa-Locka 70 83 74 85 / 0 10 10 10 Homestead 71 83 74 84 / 0 10 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 71 83 74 84 / 0 10 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 71 83 74 85 / 0 10 10 10 Pembroke Pines 69 83 73 85 / 0 10 10 10 West Palm Beach 69 83 73 85 / 10 10 10 10 Boca Raton 71 83 74 85 / 10 10 10 10 Naples 64 84 70 85 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.

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Ocean Reef Harbor
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:58 AM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:57 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:21 AM EST     2.86 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:34 PM EST     0.64 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:30 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:29 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:22 PM EST     2.53 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Ocean Reef Harbor, Key Largo, Florida, Tide feet

Caesar Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:19 AM EST     -2.15 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:03 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:57 AM EST     1.42 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 09:57 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 12:14 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:05 PM EST     -1.46 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:30 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:39 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:28 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:47 PM EST     0.70 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:19 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Caesar Creek, Biscayne Bay, Florida Current, knots

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