Wednesday, November20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Key Largo, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 5:33PM Wednesday November 20, 2019 9:45 AM EST (14:45 UTC) Moonrise 12:20AMMoonset 1:39PM Illumination 40% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ630 Biscayne Bay- 836 Am Est Wed Nov 20 2019
Rest of today..North northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop.
Tonight..North northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..East northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop.
Thursday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop.
Friday..East winds 5 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop.
Friday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Saturday..South southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Sunday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of light showers.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 836 Am Est Wed Nov 20 2019
Synopsis.. High pressure builds over the region for the rest of the week. This will allow for improving marine conditions for the later portion of the week. Another cold front will approach the local waters for the weekend, which could bring another increase in winds and seas.
Gulf stream hazards..5 to 6 foot seas with occasional seas to 8 feet possible. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of nov 19, 2019 at 1200 utc... 6 nautical miles southeast of fowey rocks. 13 nautical miles east northeast of port everglades. 5 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 6 nautical miles east of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Key Largo CDP, FL
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location: 25.31, -80.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fx/fxus62.kmfl.afd.mfl.txt <- there really should be an address herer AEFXUS62 KMFL 201330 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 830 AM EST Wed Nov 20 2019

Update Surface high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley will remain the the predominant weather influencer for the eastern third of the CONUS with light northerly flow expected across southern Florida today. Given the very dry airmass and recent frontal passage expect cool temperatures tonight with lows ranging from the upper 40s northwest of the Lake to the lower 60s along the Atlantic beaches. Made some slight adjustments to increase cloud cover based on Satellite trends, otherwise the ongoing forecast is in good shape.

Prev Discussion issued 637 AM EST Wed Nov 20 2019 Aviation...

VFR with generally northerly flow will prevail today. Winds will be light during the overnights which could lead to some variability in direction. On Thursday, a shift to northeasterly to easterly wind flow will also allow cloud cover to return from the east.

Prev Discussion... issued 329 AM EST Wed Nov 20 2019 Short Term...

Today through Thursday Night...

Surface high pressure centered over the eastern third of the United States continues to build in over the region. As it settles over the Mid-Atlantic, the northwesterly flow will begin to turn more northerly today and then easterly over the coming days. This will allow cooler, drier air to remain in the forecast today with a crisp start across South Florida with temperatures in the 50s across a good part of the area except for portions of inland Southwest Florida that will fall into the upper 40s and areas along the coast which stick in the 60s. Dry conditions through the column and departure of the trough into the Atlantic will help keep cloud cover low which will allow for a sunny day with temperatures reaching into the mid to upper 70s this afternoon.

Thursday morning will be a bit warmer, especially across the eastern portions of the peninsula, due to the shifting to a more east of north flow as the Appalachian high slides east ahead of the next front. This minor change in flow will allow a slight moistening trend to begin Thursday which will allow dewpoints to rebound from the 40s today to around 60 on Thursday afternoon. Rain chances remain below mention for the forecast through the end of Thursday.

Long Term...

Friday through Early Next Week...

The end of the work week should remain fairly dry as high pressure still remains in control. A few sprinkles may be possible Friday morning as some clouds build up and grow vertically over the Atlantic and move over the east coast, though PW's remain near an inch or so, so nothing heavy or persistent expected. Still, PoPs are not high enough to mention rain in the forecast. With amplified ridging aloft, South Florida should remain dry into the first half of the weekend.

Thereafter, a progressive weather pattern is in store for the second half of the weekend as the aforementioned high pressure breaks down while the 300 mb-200 mb jet pattern dips into central Florida with fairly strong zonal flow. Furthermore, an upper-level trough with an attendant cold front approaches the Sunshine State early Saturday with surface winds veering from the SE. It's like the models are playing a game of cat and mouse because they are diverging, yet again, on timing and coverage of FROPA. ECMWF is weaker, drier, and more expeditious than GFS which is a tad stronger, wetter, and slower. In fact, the 00Z GFS has the cold front stalling over extreme South Florida before washing out whereas the 00Z ECMWF has a full FROPA. Because of discrepancies being reintroduced into the forecast, took a blend of the two models and capped PoPs at 15 percent for Sunday. The good news is that nothing significant is expected with this front as the frontal axis looks to be positively tilted across the SE CONUS, so isolated to maybe scattered PoPs at best Sunday. Of course, will continue to monitor as the week progresses.

By Monday afternoon, high pressure builds back in. If ECMWF wins out, winds will be more from the N NW whereas if the GFS perseveres, then winds will be more from the E. So, the end of the forecast period is fairly uncertain for the time being. If we get more N NW flow, it will be drier across the region. If we get more E flow, than the east coast metro will be more prone to isolated rain showers. Again, will continue to monitor throughout the week.

Temperatures will moderate back to near or slightly above normal through the remainder of the week and into the weekend before, again, falling back to below normal during early next week behind a cold front.

Marine...

High pressure locally has permitted for some improvement over the local waters, though some northeasterly swell will continue in the Atlantic waters as the low pressure system off the Mid- Atlantic coast moves northward into the Canadian Maritimes by Thursday. The next cold front nears late in the week into the weekend.

Aviation...

VFR with generally northerly flow will prevail through the period.

Winds will be light during the overnights which could lead to some variability in direction.

Beach Forecast...

Northeasterly swell will allow for an elevated risk of rip currents to remain along the Atlantic beaches today, particularly the Palm Beaches. A northeasterly and then easterly wind flow regime returns in the next few days, allowing for a reinforcement of the elevated rip current risk through the rest of the week.

Fire Weather...

There may be enhanced fire weather conditions today due to low relative humidities across portions of Broward, Miami-Dade, Collier, far southern Hendry, and mainland Monroe Counties this afternoon. However, wind critical thresholds are not expected to be met.

Preliminary Point Temps PoPs West Palm Beach 76 63 77 67 0 10 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 77 64 77 69 0 10 10 10 Miami 78 63 78 68 0 10 0 10 Naples 78 55 79 62 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES WARNINGS ADVISORIES FL... High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

AM... None.

GM... None.

Update... 34 SPM Short Term and Aviation Marine Beaches... 02 RAG Long Term and Fire Weather... 03 Fell
Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MDKF1 7 mi105 min 71°F
THRF1 9 mi165 min 71°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 10 mi105 min 71°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 11 mi165 min 71°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 11 mi105 min 71°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 13 mi165 min 72°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 15 mi165 min 69°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 15 mi165 min 70°F
JBYF1 16 mi105 min 71°F
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 20 mi105 min 70°F
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 21 mi45 min NNW 18 G 20 67°F 78°F1020.2 hPa (+2.2)
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 21 mi105 min 75°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 21 mi105 min 71°F
TBYF1 26 mi105 min 70°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 29 mi105 min 69°F
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL 30 mi105 min NNW 15 69°F
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 30 mi51 min NNW 6 G 9.9 68°F 75°F1019.9 hPa
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 30 mi105 min 68°F
BKYF1 33 mi105 min 68°F
LRIF1 33 mi105 min 69°F
NRRF1 34 mi105 min 70°F
WWEF1 36 mi165 min 69°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 36 mi105 min 69°F
LRKF1 - Little Rabbit Key, FL 37 mi165 min 69°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 37 mi105 min 71°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 37 mi165 min 71°F
MUKF1 - Murray Key, FL 38 mi105 min 72°F
JKYF1 - Johnson Key, FL 38 mi105 min 69°F
CWAF1 39 mi165 min 70°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 40 mi105 min 73°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 41 mi105 min 71°F
HREF1 43 mi105 min 70°F
SREF1 44 mi105 min 72°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 45 mi105 min 69°F
LONF1 - Long Key, FL 45 mi25 min 67°F 1018.9 hPa54°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL13 mi49 minNNW 1210.00 miFair65°F51°F61%1020 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHST

Wind History from HST (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW6NW9NW13NW10NW12NW10NW5NW7NW3CalmW4SW6CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3
2 days agoNW12N11NW10NW9NW9NW8N10N9N7N8NW6W7W5W5NW3NW4W5W6W5W8NW8W10NW7W6

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean Reef Harbor, Key Largo, Florida
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Ocean Reef Harbor
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:19 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:03 AM EST     2.63 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:41 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:25 AM EST     0.58 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:38 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 02:41 PM EST     2.75 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:31 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:04 PM EST     0.58 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.12.52.62.52.21.71.20.80.60.60.91.41.92.42.72.72.52.11.61.10.70.60.71

Tide / Current Tables for Caesar Creek, Biscayne Bay, Florida Current
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Caesar Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:19 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:09 AM EST     0.73 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:54 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:41 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:18 AM EST     -1.68 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 11:05 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:38 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 02:00 PM EST     1.07 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 04:52 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:31 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:08 PM EST     -1.67 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 11:48 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.70.70.4-0.1-0.7-1.4-1.7-1.6-1.3-0.8-0.10.611.110.6-0.1-0.9-1.5-1.7-1.6-1.2-0.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.