Saturday, March28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
North Key Largo, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 7:37PM Saturday March 28, 2020 1:56 PM EDT (17:56 UTC) Moonrise 8:55AMMoonset 10:24PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ630 Biscayne Bay- 902 Am Edt Sat Mar 28 2020
Rest of today..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop.
Tonight..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop.
Sunday..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop.
Sunday night..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Monday night..South southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Tuesday..South southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Wednesday..West southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 902 Am Edt Sat Mar 28 2020
Synopsis.. The winds will remain east southeast at 10 to 15 knots this weekend before turning more southerly and decreasing to 10 knots or less early next week over the south florida waters. There will also be a northeast swell of 2 to 3 feet building into the atlantic waters this weekend from the northeast. The combination of the northeast swells and the moderate east southeast winds should allow for the atlantic seas to build to 4 to 6 feet this weekend especially over the palm beach atlantic waters. The gulf seas will remain at 2 feet or less this weekend.
Gulf stream hazards..Northeasterly swell could produce 4 to 6 foot seas over the gulfstream through the weekend. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of mar 28, 2020 at 1200 utc... 16 nautical miles east of fowey rocks. 23 nautical miles east of port everglades. 19 nautical miles east of lake worth. 18 nautical miles east of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Key Largo CDP, FL
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location: 25.31, -80.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 281728 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 128 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

Aviation. Generally VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Some patchy fog will once again be possible across the interior overnight tonight into tomorrow morning, but confidence of any fog reaching the taf sites is low.

Prev Discussion. /issued 915 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020/

Update . Quiet day in store with hot and dry conditions expected again this afternoon. High temperatures are forecast to range from the mid 80s along the East Coast to the mid 90s across portions of the interior this afternoon. Patchy fog will be possible again across the interior overnight tonight.

Prev Discussion . /issued 301 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020/

Discussion .

Short Term (Today through Sunday Night):

Warm temperatures with generally dry conditions are the story through the weekend across South Florida. Morning fog will continue to be possible, particularly inland where the wind is more likely to decouple. Surface high pressure over the Atlantic and a mid-level high pressure over the southern Gulf of Mexico and Yucatan peninsula are the major synoptic features in play for the weekend. Rain chances should remain minimal with any sea breeze boundaries that form serving as potential focuses for any convection.

The relative lack of cloud cover will allow warm temperatures this weekend with much of the area reaching into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Portions of the interior will reach into the mid 90s with the potential for some maximum temperature records to be threatened, particularly at APF which has a record of 91 today and 90 on Sunday. The easterly to southeasterly flow will allow the airmass to warm as it travels across the peninsula towards Southwest Florida. Portions of Southeast Florida could also see warm temperatures with those areas away from the Atlantic, like the western suburbs, most likely to climb into the 90s.

Long Term (Monday through Friday):

Models continue to depict a sfc ridge and high pressure aloft across SoFlo on Tuesday. However, winds at the sfc will be veering to the south at that time as the ridge will be migrating eastward and the high pressure aloft will be eroding due to an approaching trough/low complex over the E CONUS.

Latest model solutions seem in little better agreement regarding the timing and overall impacts from the frontal boundary associated with the aforementioned trough/low complex. Wednesday seems like the consensus for SoFlo to experience the bulk of the rain, along with slight chances for thunderstorms. The best upper level dynamic support should remain well to the north of SoFlo, so the main impacts should be limited to showers, and maybe a few storms. POPs remain in the 30% range Wednesday afternoon through the late evening hours, with the FROPA basically over by Thursday mid morning. This timing could be adjusted as new model runs become available, but attm there is no compelling reason to deviate from the ongoing forecast philosophy.

Winds turn W/NW on Thursday and eventually N by Friday behind the FROPA with another round of drier and stable air settling across the area.

Temperatures will remain warm on Tuesday with afternoon highs in the mid-upper 80s to low 90s. Then a cooling trend begins on Wednesday behind the FROPA with afternoon highs remaining in the low-mid 80s by the end of the long term.

Marine . Northeasterly Atlantic swell will push into the local waters this weekend possibly producing 4 to 6 foot seas in and around the Gulfstream. Easterly wind surges could also bring bouts of cautionary conditions to the Atlantic and Lake Okeechobee waters at times. Seas should diminish heading into early next week as the swell dissipates.

Beach Forecast . The threat of rip currents will be high along the Atlantic beaches today and likely remain elevated through the weekend into the early portions of the next work week.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 70 86 69 85 / 0 0 10 0 Fort Lauderdale 73 85 72 84 / 0 0 10 0 Miami 72 87 72 85 / 0 0 10 0 Naples 67 88 68 87 / 0 0 10 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

AM . None. GM . None.

Aviation . 32/MM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MDKF1 7 mi116 min 79°F
THRF1 9 mi176 min 81°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 10 mi116 min 80°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 11 mi176 min 80°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 11 mi116 min 80°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 13 mi176 min 80°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 15 mi176 min 80°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 15 mi176 min 78°F
JBYF1 16 mi116 min 81°F
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 20 mi116 min 80°F
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 21 mi56 min ESE 15 G 16 76°F 77°F1019.5 hPa (+0.0)
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 21 mi116 min 86°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 21 mi116 min 80°F
TBYF1 26 mi116 min 80°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 29 mi116 min 79°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 30 mi116 min 80°F
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 30 mi56 min E 8.9 G 14 77°F 81°F1019.7 hPa (+0.0)
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL 30 mi116 min ENE 8.9 80°F
BKYF1 33 mi116 min 79°F
LRIF1 33 mi116 min 81°F
NRRF1 34 mi116 min 80°F
WWEF1 36 mi176 min 80°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 36 mi116 min 79°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 37 mi116 min 80°F
LRKF1 - Little Rabbit Key, FL 37 mi176 min 80°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 37 mi176 min 80°F
MUKF1 - Murray Key, FL 38 mi116 min 80°F
JKYF1 - Johnson Key, FL 38 mi116 min 80°F
CWAF1 39 mi176 min 82°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 40 mi116 min 80°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 41 mi116 min 79°F
HREF1 43 mi116 min 80°F
SREF1 44 mi116 min 81°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 45 mi116 min 79°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL13 mi60 minE 12 G 1710.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F66°F60%1019.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHST

Wind History from HST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE12--E10E9E9E6E7E5E6E6E6E8E4E5E3E3E3CalmE3E7E9E12E12E12
G17
1 day ago--E9E9SE8S5SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3NE7SE3E5
2 days agoSW5SW11SW10W11--W13W11W8W7W5W5W5W5CalmCalmCalmW3CalmW3W3N6N6N5N5

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean Reef Harbor, Key Largo, Florida
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Ocean Reef Harbor
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:45 AM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:37 AM EDT     2.16 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:57 PM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:24 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.32.11.61.10.60.30.30.50.91.41.82.12.11.91.510.50.1-00.10.51.11.62

Tide / Current Tables for Caesar Creek, Biscayne Bay, Florida Current
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Caesar Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:12 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:18 AM EDT     -1.76 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:50 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:06 AM EDT     0.95 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 12:40 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:25 PM EDT     -1.97 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:57 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:38 PM EDT     1.32 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:24 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.1-0.6-1.3-1.7-1.6-1.2-0.60.10.70.90.80.4-0.2-0.8-1.5-1.9-1.9-1.4-0.700.81.21.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.