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AMZ630 Biscayne Bay- 401 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 am est Monday through late Monday night...
Tonight..S sw winds 5 to 10 kt becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt after midnight. Bay waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Mon..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Bay waters choppy.
Mon night..N ne winds 15 to 20 kt. Bay waters choppy.
Tue..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Bay waters rough. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Wed and Wed night..E ne winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of tstms in the morning. Showers. A chance of tstms.
Thu..E ne winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 35 kt. Bay waters rough. A chance of tstms in the morning. Showers likely
a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon
Thu night..E ne winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 35 kt. Bay waters rough. Showers likely in the evening. A slight chance of tstms through the night. A chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..E ne winds around 20 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. Bay waters choppy. Showers likely.
Fri night..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. Bay waters choppy. A chance of showers.

AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 400 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis..
breezy southerly to southwesterly winds 15 to 20 kts will prevail today ahead of an approaching cold front. Seas in the atlantic generally 3 to 5 ft today, and 2 ft or less in the gulf. A few showers and storms could develop over the local waters this evening with the passage of the front.
winds will veer from the north northeast late tonight into Monday morning as the front clear our area, gradually increasing up to 20 to 25 kts by midweek. Seas will also gradually build up to 6 to 8 across all local waters by mid-week, resulting in hazardous boating conditions.
gulf stream hazards: seas building to 6 to 9 feet by Tuesday. Seas could exceed 10 feet later this week.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 09, 2023 at 12 utc...
18 nautical miles northeast of fowey rocks. 16 nautical miles east of port everglades. 3 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 5 nautical miles northeast of jupiter inlet.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KMFL 102334 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 634 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 622 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

A decaying line of showers and isolated thunderstorms has generated an outflow boundary which is now racing through the nearshore Gulf waters of South Florida. Ahead of this boundary, dewpoints in the low 70s with light southerly flow prevails across the region which could support scattered shower development with perhaps a few thunderstorms as well. A very conditional risk remains of seeing a few isolated strong storms as parameters remain marginally favorable (bulk shear of 30-40kts, 0-1 km SRH of 100-150 m2/s2, mid-level lapse rates of 6 to 6.5 C/km). However, any robust storm will have to materialize with the pre-boundary convection and an updraft must be deep enough vertically to sustain growth. With the loss of diurnal heating and marginal instability overall, uncertainty remains regarding how the next few hours play out. Mesoscale models have varied widely run to run which reinforces the fact that uncertainty remains quite high.

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1224 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

After a very pleasant start to the day under mostly clear skies and southerly winds, conditions will start becoming unsettled this evening as a strong mid level trough progresses across the eastern US, pushing a cold front across the SE US and the Florida peninsula. PWATs are forecast to gradually increase up to the 1.5 to 1.7 inch range as the front nears our area, which will support enhanced convection over the coastal waters first, and then spreading over land. Latest POPs remain in the 40 to 60 percent chance, with a chance of thunderstorms late this evening and through the night. Can’t rule out a few stronger cells with gusty to damaging winds and frequent lightning, especially along the Atlantic coastline where coastal convergence may promote deeper convection.

The front will clear our area by early Monday morning and an area of high pressure will start to build in from the SE US. This should usher a brief period of dry, quiet weather as cooler, drier air advects over our area. It will also help keep daytime temps on Monday in the 70s and overnight temperatures in the mid 50s (over the interior) and mid 60s (along the East Coast). Winds behind the front will remain breezy, with northerly to northeasterly winds 15-20 kts.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 343 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Models remain persistent in showing a decaying boundary remaining nearly stationary around the Florida Keys through mid week.
Pressure gradients between the boundary and high pressure expanding across the region should become tighter, resulting in periods of breezy and gusty northeasterly winds, especially during the afternoon hours across much of South FL.

Ensemble solutions show fair agreement in depicting another surge of moisture across SoFlo as the aforementioned boundary retrogrades back into the area. A stratiform deck should accompany the returning boundary, with POPs jumping back into the 50, 60, or even 70 percent range, especially around the east coast, on Thursday. Model PWATs still show potential for up to 2 inches Thursday afternoon, and even isolated max QPF values of up to 4 inches. However, it is too early to embrace any particular solution. Thus, the forecast philosophy will remain on the conservative side in terms of QPF, and continue to adjust accordingly as new guidance becomes available.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

With the frontal boundary approaching the area, winds will switch to a light SW direction before shifting to a westerly and then northwesterly direction during the early morning hours. SHRA with isolated TSRA remain possible although uncertainty remains as far as coverage. If a terminal is directly impacted, sub-VFR cigs could be realized.

MARINE
Issued at 1224 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Breezy southerly to southeasterly winds at 15-20 kts will prevail today ahead of an approaching cold front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this evening and overnight as the front pushes through.

Winds and seas will increase behind the front starting tonight and persisting through the end of the week, resulting in hazardous marine conditions across all local waters. Winds are forecast to increase up to 20-25 kts with gusts up to 30-35 kts by the middle of the week, while seas could build up to 6-11 feet across the Atlantic waters. With this in mind, a Small Craft Advisory will be in effect for the Gulf Waters starting 10PM tonight through at least Monday evening. For the local Atlantic waters, a Small Craft Advisory will also go into effect at 4AM tomorrow morning lasting through at least Tuesday evening.

BEACHES
Issued at 1224 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

A Rip Current Statement remains in effect through this evening along the Atlantic Coast beaches. Gusty northerly winds developing behind the cold front moving through tonight will lead to hazardous beach conditions along the Atlantic Coast for much of the upcoming week with high rip current risks and high surf. Along the Gulf beaches, the rip current risk will be elevated on Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 67 75 64 77 / 50 0 0 10 West Kendall 65 75 61 78 / 50 0 0 10 Opa-Locka 66 76 64 78 / 50 0 0 10 Homestead 66 76 64 78 / 50 0 0 10 Fort Lauderdale 66 75 64 77 / 50 0 0 10 N Ft Lauderdale 66 74 64 77 / 50 0 0 10 Pembroke Pines 65 75 63 78 / 50 0 0 10 West Palm Beach 63 72 63 76 / 50 0 0 10 Boca Raton 65 74 64 77 / 50 0 0 10 Naples 60 71 53 77 / 40 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ630-650-651-670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday for GMZ656-657-676.

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Ocean Reef Harbor
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:34 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:17 AM EST     2.67 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:26 PM EST     0.58 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:37 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:31 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:13 PM EST     2.50 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Ocean Reef Harbor, Key Largo, Florida, Tide feet

Caesar Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:14 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:33 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:19 AM EST     1.54 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:24 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:25 AM EST     -1.69 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 02:56 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:37 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:13 PM EST     0.86 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:31 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:43 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:17 PM EST     -2.24 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Caesar Creek, Biscayne Bay, Florida Current, knots

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