Sunday, September15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Key Largo, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 7:27PM Sunday September 15, 2019 10:02 PM EDT (02:02 UTC) Moonrise 7:38PMMoonset 7:13AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ630 Biscayne Bay- 928 Pm Edt Sun Sep 15 2019
Rest of tonight..West southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms late in the evening.
Monday..West southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers in the evening.
Tuesday..North northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..North northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers.
Wednesday and Wednesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday and Thursday night..East northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..East northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 928 Pm Edt Sun Sep 15 2019
Synopsis.. SWells produced by tropical storm humberto in the atlantic will cause hazardous marine conditions to develop starting as soon as tonight. Showers and Thunderstorms continue to be possible through the week, although the chances should be low
Gulf stream hazards.. A northerly swell will allow for the seas build to 7 feet late tonight into Monday morning, before increasing to around 9 feet by Tuesday. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of sep 14, 2019 at 1200 utc... 11 nautical miles southeast of fowey rocks. 14 nautical miles east southeast of port everglades. 7 nautical miles east southeast of lake worth. 9 nautical miles northeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Key Largo CDP, FL
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location: 25.31, -80.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 152348 aab
afdmfl
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service miami fl
748 pm edt Sun sep 15 2019

Update
A line of showers and a few thunderstorms extended from
glades hendry counties southeast into broward county and the
adjacent coastal waters. This line of showers and thunderstorms
should continue to slowly dissipate through the evening hours
while moving slowly southeast into the southeastern portions of
south florida. Therefore, a low chance of pops will remain in
place for the southeastern portion of south florida through
midnight before going dry with also a slight chance of pops over
the lake okeechobee region. The weather should then be dry across
all of south florida after midnight tonight, as the winds will
remain in a light westerly direction. The high risk of rip
currents along the beaches of palm beach county will also be lower
to a moderate risk for tonight with rest of the east coast
beaches of south florida remaining in a moderate risk.

Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes
are planned.

Prev discussion issued 737 pm edt Sun sep 15 2019
aviation...

convective activity is forecast to diminish over the next few
hours, then become quiet overnight. Tomorrow should be mostly
quiet with some tsra possible in the early afternoon along the
east coast. This convection is not forecast to persist through
tomorrow afternoon at this time, so only a prob30 for a few hours
to cover the potential at the TAF sites.

Prev discussion... Issued 427 pm edt Sun sep 15 2019

Threat of rip currents east coast beaches this week...

Small craft advisory atlantic beaches through at least Tuesday...

discussion...

tropical storm humberto north of the bahamas is forecast by nhc
to move slowly east northeast through the middle of this week.

This will allow for the winds over south florida to be
west northwest early this week before going more north northeast
by mid week. This will also bring in some drier air to south
florida from the north reducing the coverage of showers and
thunderstorms over the region to 20 to 40 percent, with the best
coverage over the eastern areas early this week before shifting to
more southwest region by middle of the week.

Humberto is forecast to strengthen by NHC and to move more
easterly late this week into the northern atlantic waters as high
pressure builds over the gulf of mexico. This will allow for the
pressure gradient to tighten over south florida bringing a breezy
to windy northeast flow. This will focus the best coverage of
showers and thunderstorms over the western interior areas late
this week, but the coverage will still be in the 20 to 40 percent
range.

Extended forecast...

the long range models are showing a low level trough moving
west-northwest from the bahamas late this week across south
florida next weekend. The trough will bring in deeper tropical
moisture to south florida leading to scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms for this weekend over south florida.

Marine...

the winds will be westerly tonight into Monday before going more
northerly middle to end of next week. The speeds will be less than
15 knots tonight through Tuesday before increasing to breezy to
even possibility of windy conditions by late this week.

The atlantic seas will be increasing from 4 to 6 feet tonight to 5
to 7 feet on Monday. The atlantic seas will then remain at 7 to 9
feet through Tuesday. The only exception is over palm beach
atlantic waters where the seas will be getting to 5 to 7 feet
tonight. The gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less through
Tuesday. Therefore, a SCA has been issued for the atlantic waters
of palm beach county tonight through Tuesday, and rest of the
atlantic waters will see an scec for tonight then a SCA Monday
through Tuesday.

A northeast swell from humberto will also be increasing this week
and will get to 5 to 7 feet in the palm beach waters middle to
end of this week with the rest of the atlantic waters seeing 2 to
5 feet by middle to end of this week. If the forecast continues
as is with the swells, then a high surf advisory may be needed for
the beaches of palm beach county for late this week.

Beach forecast...

the threat of increase risk of rip currents will continue for the
east coast beaches this week, due to the northeast swells working
into the east coast beaches from humberto.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 75 91 76 91 40 50 20 20
fort lauderdale 77 92 77 91 50 50 20 30
miami 77 92 78 92 40 40 10 30
naples 79 89 78 90 10 10 10 10

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk until 8 pm edt this evening for flz168.

Am... Small craft advisory from 8 am Monday to 8 pm edt Tuesday for
amz651-671.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt Tuesday for amz650-670.

Gm... None.

Update... 54 bnb
discussion... 54 bnb
marine... 54 bnb
aviation... 13
beach forecast... 54 bnb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THRF1 9 mi183 min 88°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 10 mi123 min 91°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 11 mi123 min 89°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 11 mi183 min 88°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 13 mi183 min 89°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 15 mi183 min 90°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 15 mi183 min 88°F
JBYF1 16 mi123 min 88°F
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 20 mi123 min 87°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 21 mi123 min 90°F
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 21 mi63 min W 19 G 21 86°F 85°F1013.6 hPa (+1.3)
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 21 mi123 min 88°F
TBYF1 26 mi123 min 90°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 29 mi123 min 91°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 30 mi123 min 89°F
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 30 mi45 min WSW 8.9 G 13
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL 30 mi123 min WSW 13 91°F
BKYF1 33 mi123 min 89°F
LRIF1 33 mi123 min 89°F
NRRF1 34 mi123 min 88°F
WWEF1 36 mi183 min 89°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 36 mi123 min 85°F
LRKF1 - Little Rabbit Key, FL 37 mi183 min 87°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 37 mi123 min 88°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 37 mi183 min 89°F
MUKF1 - Murray Key, FL 38 mi123 min 86°F
JKYF1 - Johnson Key, FL 38 mi123 min 86°F
CWAF1 39 mi183 min 88°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 40 mi123 min 87°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 41 mi123 min 86°F
HREF1 43 mi123 min 85°F
SREF1 44 mi123 min 87°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 45 mi123 min 87°F
LONF1 - Long Key, FL 45 mi23 min 86°F 1013.9 hPa80°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL13 mi2.1 hrsW 910.00 miFair86°F76°F74%1012.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHST

Wind History from HST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------Calm--W3----SW5SW10--W8
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1 day agoE12
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----NE10NE12--E6------N4Calm--N4NE5NE13E7NE7E7E4E4SE3SW5Calm
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Tide / Current Tables for Ocean Reef Harbor, Key Largo, Florida
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Ocean Reef Harbor
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:53 AM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:13 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:57 AM EDT     2.81 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:09 PM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:11 PM EDT     2.79 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.11.50.90.50.40.61.11.72.22.72.82.62.21.71.10.60.40.50.91.52.12.62.82.7

Tide / Current Tables for Caesar Creek, Biscayne Bay, Florida Current
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Caesar Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:24 AM EDT     -2.00 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:51 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:13 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:31 AM EDT     1.41 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 11:31 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:41 PM EDT     -2.14 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:17 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:48 PM EDT     1.30 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 11:45 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.6-1.5-2-1.9-1.5-0.80.10.91.41.41.10.4-0.5-1.4-2-2.1-1.8-1.1-0.30.61.21.31.10.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.