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AMZ630 Biscayne Bay- 1000 Pm Est Tue Dec 5 2023
.small craft should exercise caution...
Rest of tonight..N nw winds 5 to 10 kt becoming 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt after midnight. Bay waters choppy.
Wed..N nw winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. Bay waters choppy.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Bay waters choppy.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Bay waters a moderate chop.
Thu night through Sat..E se winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Bay waters a moderate chop.
Sat night..E se winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Bay waters a moderate chop.
Sun..S se winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Bay waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning. A slight chance of tstms. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..SE winds around 10 kt becoming E ne after midnight. Bay waters a light chop. A chance of showers in the evening. A slight chance of tstms through the night. A slight chance of showers after midnight.

AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 1000 Pm Est Tue Dec 5 2023
Synopsis..
north to northwesterly winds will increase tonight and will become moderate to fresh over the gulf waters through the middle of the week. These winds will become fresh to strong over the atlantic waters during this time frame creating hazardous marine conditions. Winds will gradually diminish across the local waters on Thursday as they become northeasterly.
gulf stream hazards: elevated winds and seas for the atlantic waters.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 05, 2023 at 12 utc...
25 nautical miles northeast of fowey rocks. 1 nautical miles east of port everglades. 10 nautical miles northeast of lake worth. 12 nautical miles northeast of jupiter inlet.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KMFL 052333 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 633 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 623 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

Mainly dry conditions will remain in place tonight along with cold air advection continuing across South Florida. As a reinforcing cold front approaches from the north, winds will gradually increase out of the northwest during the overnight hours especially across the northern areas. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the lower 50s west of Lake Okeechobee to around 60 across the east coast.

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1141 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

A short-wave trough is currently traversing the eastern United States, accompanied by a weakening cold front moving east/southeastward toward the western Atlantic waters. With this cold frontal boundary, it will be joined by a dry, air mass. As this air mass stabilizes across the region, a return to seasonal temperature norms is expected this afternoon, though temperatures may remain slightly elevated in some east coast metropolitan areas.
The prevailing conditions will be predominantly dry, with the potential for an isolated, transient shower along the immediate Atlantic coastline. Afternoon high temperatures are forecast to reach the lower 80s along much of the east coast, while the rest of the region will experience highs in the mid to upper 70s. By Wednesday, a vigorous short-wave trough originating from the Great Lakes region is expected to progress southward, reaching subtropical latitudes. An associated surface high-pressure ridge, characterized by a continental polar air mass, will also move equatorward, in tandem with the trough. This subsequent influx of cold air will sweep over South Florida, leading to a marked temperature decrease and virtually negligible chances of rainfall throughout the region.
Afternoon high temperatures on Wednesday may scarcely rise above 70 degrees in many areas, with expected highs ranging from the mid-60s to the lower 70s. Rainfall chances will remain minimal following the reduction in moisture and the lack of upward atmospheric forcing.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 254 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

The long term forecast period opens with an area of low pressure off the northeastern United States and Canadian Maritimes. To the west, high pressure builds over the south central United States and drier, cooler air will infiltrate the peninsula of Florida along a breezy northwesterly to northerly wind flow. Thursday morning will likely be the chilliest of the forecast period with the majority of the area falling into the 50s except for some mid to upper 40s in Southwest Florida and low 60s along the immediate Atlantic coast.
The cold snap will be short-lived as the surface high slides eastward and the wind shifts from the northerly component to an easterly flow by Friday. This will allow temperatures to warm by 5 to 10 degrees compared to Thursday morning's lows though the daytime highs will still take time to cover with widespread 70s yet another day.

The next disturbance begins to emerge over the Gulf of Mexico on Friday along the edge of the surface high and with a mid-level shortwave trough exiting South Texas and Mexico. Moistening with this disturbance will be gradual heading through the weekend before the next longwave mid-level trough emerges over the central United States and amplifies southward as it enters the eastern portion of the country. There is some spread in the guidance as to the location of the associated surface low with some guidance has the low centered to the north in Ontario while some other guidance favors a southerly track in the Ohio River Valley south of the Great Lakes.

To account for this uncertainty, will continue to carry healthy rain chances for Sunday into Monday as the front should be moving through the region in that timeframe. Also maintained a slight chance of thunder wording since the closer that the low tracks to the south will mean more southerly extent for the ingredients to support thunderstorms and possibly more stout convection. At this point in time, the best supporting dynamics for strong storms appears to remain north of South Florida but things can surely change quickly with a forecast this far out in time. Stay aware of the forecast trends through the week and into the weekend in case a heavy rain and/or strong storm threat ends up emerging for portions of South Florida.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. A light northwesterly wind flow this evening will gradually increase from north to south during the early morning hours on Wednesday.
These winds will be gusty at times through Wednesday afternoon especially across the east coast terminals.

MARINE
Issued at 1141 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

A frontal boundary will continue to move through the region today with north to northwesterly winds. The winds will prevail tomorrow as a second, stronger cold front will move through the region. This secondary cold front may introduce cautionary or even hazardous marine conditions, with elevated winds and seas being the primary hazards to monitor.

BEACHES
Issued at 1141 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

The threat for rip currents may be reintroduced later in the week with a strong cold front forecast expected to move through the region by Wednesday and the flow becomes more easterly by the end of the work week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 60 73 57 74 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 57 73 53 75 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 59 73 56 75 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 58 73 56 75 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 60 73 58 74 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 60 72 57 74 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 58 73 56 75 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 57 71 57 74 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 58 73 57 74 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 59 72 51 74 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Wednesday to 7 PM EST Thursday for AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...None.

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Key Biscayne Yacht Club
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:07 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:51 AM EST     Last Quarter
Tue -- 02:52 AM EST     1.86 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:27 AM EST     0.71 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:00 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 03:16 PM EST     1.98 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:29 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:07 PM EST     0.64 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Key Biscayne Yacht Club, Biscayne Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Miami Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:06 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:51 AM EST     Last Quarter
Tue -- 03:09 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:14 AM EST     -0.74 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:12 AM EST     -0.72 knots Min Ebb
Tue -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:29 AM EST     -0.76 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 09:20 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:38 AM EST     1.35 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 01:00 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 03:33 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:29 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:55 PM EST     -0.91 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 09:52 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Miami Harbor Entrance, Florida Current, knots

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