Tuesday, January28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Key Biscayne, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 6:02PM Tuesday January 28, 2020 2:18 PM EST (19:18 UTC) Moonrise 9:38AMMoonset 9:27PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ651 Coastal Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl From 20 To 60 Nm Excluding The Territorial Waters Of Bahamas- 215 Am Est Tue Jan 28 2020
Today..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of light showers in the morning. Slight chance of light showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of light showers.
Wednesday..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 5 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers in the morning, then slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..West southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers.
Thursday..North northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop.
Thursday night..East winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..South southwest winds 10 to 15 knots along the coast to south southwest 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots in the gulf stream. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..West winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots along the coast to west 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots in the gulf stream. Seas 2 to 3 feet along the coast and 2 to 4 feet with occasional to 5 feet in the gulf stream. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 215 Am Est Tue Jan 28 2020
Synopsis.. Winds shifting from the north early this morning before becoming more northeasterly by the afternoon. A few showers are also possible as a weak disturbance moves through the region this morning and exits late morning to early afternoon. Winds then shift back to a southerly direction on Wednesday. Slight chance of showers over the atlantic waters today and the atlantic and gulf waters on Wednesday.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of jan 28, 2020 at 1200 utc... 5 nautical miles east of fowey rocks. 12 nautical miles east southeast of port everglades. 9 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 11 nautical miles east southeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Key Biscayne village, FL
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location: 25.7, -80.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 281149 AAA AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Miami FL 649 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2020

Aviation. Mostly dry, although a brief shower isn't out of the question today, especially for east coast sites. Confidence too low to warrant a mention. VFR CIGs expected this morning at most TAF sites, though lower CIGS are possible, causing periods of IFR and even LIFR conditions, specifically for KAPF and KTMB TAF sites. Greatest chance through 13z. Otherwise, winds become northerly early this morning, shifting towards the NE-E this afternoon. Speeds should generally remain below 10 kt through the TAF period.

Prev Discussion. /issued 252 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2020/

Short Term .

Today through Tonight .

A mid-level short wave trough and attendant weak surface low will slowly crumble as they move across the far southern portions of the CWA early this morning, and then eastward into the Atlantic by late morning into the early afternoon. Any light showers that do develop will move with these features with PoPs decreasing from west to east. With a swathe of deep moisture, mostly over the Florida Keys and the southern portions of the offshore Atlantic waters (around 79W-78W), highest PoPs and cloud coverage will linger in this general area for most the day today before spreading across the remainder of the Atlantic waters tonight. One thing to keep in mind is with the surface flow becoming more northeasterly throughout the course of the day, some Atlantic clouds and showers may sneak into the east coast metro areas, so kept the chance for showers along the coast.

Main concern for early this morning is the possibility of patchy fog to develop across the western counties and interior sections of South Florida. Short Range Ensembles are hinting at fog development, especially as drainage flow sets up and plenty of low level moisture sticks around. GOES-16 water vapor imagery along with IR depicts the current band of moisture across South FL. The caveat here is that low cloud decks are making there rounds across the state and slowly creeping southward through southern FL. Guidance could very well be picking up on these low ceilings. However, confidence is there that potential pockets of fog could form, thus, added it to the grids for early this morning.

Temperatures should be able to rebound into the mid to upper 70s across the area with some lower 80s sneaking in over the southern portions of the Everglades this afternoon. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the low to mid 60s along the east coast with 50s elsewhere.

Long Term .

Wednesday through Monday night .

For the day Wednesday, a 500mb short wave will be moving east, along the northern Gulf coast. At the surface, there is a fairly unremarkable low pressure system. Models are showing it should have enough dynamics and moisture, with PWATs about an inch and a quarter by Wednesday night to bring a slight chance of showers over the Florida peninsula, and a chance of showers over the Atlantic waters Wednesday. By Wednesday night, the short wave and surface trough traverse the region, and bring the possibility of showers to the entire area.The ECMWF tries to deepen the surface low as it crosses the area, and the GFS had little change tot he low. Either way, showers are possible through the early morning hours on Thursday. The low also brings a weak front through the area, turning the surface flow out of the north to northwest by Thursday morning.

While the front does not appear to be significant Wednesday night, the models have it stalling over the Florida Straits. Then on Friday, models show a stronger 500mb trough digging over the Mississippi River Valley, with some surface cyclogenesis over the Gulf, likely as the trough interacts with a baroclinic zone at 850mb stretched east/west over the north central Gulf.

As the low develops, it picks up the stalled front, lifting it northward as a warm front on Friday. The GFS shows some weak isentropic lift over South Florida late Friday afternoon, helping to spread showers across the area on Friday.

Friday night, the surface low jumps to the South Carolina coast, while deepening. Looking higher up, at 250mb, there is a strong subtropical jet that helps produce better dynamics for the low to develop and deepen. However, the jet streak is over the Georgia/Alabama area, keeping the better dynamics away from South Florida. On closer inspection, there is a bit of a side lobe to the jet, which noses over the area Friday night, which may be enough to allow a slight chance of a thunderstorm. By Saturday morning, the better dynamics move away from the area, and a cold front pushes through, keeping chances of rain in the forecast for Saturday.

By Saturday night, the front is through and high pressure builds for Sunday. The wind is forecast to be northwesterly Sunday, with 10 to 15 kts at the surface Sunday morning, subsiding to below 10 kts late Sunday. The system also advects in a cooler and drier air mass. Highs Sunday are forecast to be in the upper 60s near the Lake, to low 70s for most of the remainder of South Florida. Sunday night into Monday morning sees temperatures drop into the mid 40s near the lake to around 60 along the Atlantic beaches. high pressure is forecast to maintain quiet weather through Monday night.

Marine . A progressive pattern will continuously keep winds shifting as a succession of different features push across the area this week into the weekend. Overall, it appears that conditions should remain benign through the rest of the week but a strong cold front over the weekend could produce hazardous marine conditions in its wake late this weekend into early next week.

Beach Forecast . An elevated risk of rip currents may persist along the Palm Beaches due to a lingering northeasterly swell. Easterly wind flow may also return during periods of the week adding the potential for a high risk to return along the Palm Beaches. The Gulf beaches could see a concern behind a weak front Thursday into Friday as well.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 73 61 76 61 / 10 10 20 30 Fort Lauderdale 75 64 78 65 / 10 20 20 20 Miami 77 63 78 64 / 10 20 20 30 Naples 75 57 75 62 / 0 10 20 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None. GM . None.

Marine . 03/Fell Aviation . 03/Fell Beach Forecast . 03/Fell Short Term . 03/Fell Long Term . 13


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 2 mi55 min 74°F 73°F1012.1 hPa
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 8 mi19 min NNE 9.9 G 11 72°F 76°F1012 hPa (-2.1)
PEGF1 27 mi55 min 74°F 1011.7 hPa
MDKF1 31 mi79 min 69°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 34 mi79 min 72°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 36 mi79 min 70°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 36 mi139 min 69°F
THRF1 36 mi139 min 69°F
JBYF1 38 mi79 min 70°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 39 mi139 min 70°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 39 mi139 min 69°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 40 mi139 min 67°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 42 mi79 min 74°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 44 mi79 min 69°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 45 mi79 min 66°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 46 mi79 min 67°F
NRRF1 47 mi79 min 68°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 47 mi139 min 69°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 47 mi79 min 66°F
TBYF1 48 mi79 min 70°F
LRIF1 48 mi79 min 70°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miami, Miami International Airport, FL10 mi26 minVar 310.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F59°F50%1011.8 hPa
Miami, Kendall-Tamiami Executive Airport, FL14 mi26 minN 610.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F63°F56%1011.5 hPa
Miami, Opa Locka Airport, FL16 mi26 minNNW 410.00 miOvercast79°F61°F54%1012 hPa
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL19 mi83 minENE 610.00 miOvercast76°F65°F70%1012.5 hPa
Hollywood, North Perry Airport, FL21 mi26 minNE 910.00 miOvercast78°F61°F56%1012.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMIA

Wind History from MIA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7W76W3W3SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5N3NE5NE4NW5NW63
1 day ago5NE7NE3CalmNE6N3NW3CalmN3CalmN3N3N4N4N3CalmN3N4NE3CalmSE9SW7SW8SW6
2 days ago5NW6W6N6NE4CalmN3N53NW3NW4NW4NW6N6NW7N7N7NW6NW6NW64NW7NW7NW7

Tide / Current Tables for Key Biscayne Yacht Club, Biscayne Bay, Florida
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Key Biscayne Yacht Club
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:47 AM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:37 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:35 AM EST     1.91 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:01 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:15 PM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:27 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 11:51 PM EST     1.75 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.51.10.60.2-0-0.10.10.51.11.61.91.91.71.40.90.50.200.10.40.91.31.7

Tide / Current Tables for Miami Harbor Entrance, Florida Current
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Miami Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:50 AM EST     -1.33 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:44 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:22 AM EST     1.85 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 09:37 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:01 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:12 PM EST     -1.30 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:00 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:10 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:42 PM EST     1.71 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 09:27 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-1.1-1.3-1.3-1.2-0.80.31.41.81.81.71.10-0.9-1.2-1.3-1.3-1-0.20.91.61.71.61.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.