Wednesday, January22, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Key Biscayne, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 5:57PM Wednesday January 22, 2020 6:28 PM EST (23:28 UTC) Moonrise 5:16AMMoonset 4:03PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ630 Biscayne Bay- 330 Pm Est Wed Jan 22 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 pm est this evening...
Tonight..North northeast winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Bay waters choppy. Slight chance of showers.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers.
Thursday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers through the night.
Friday..Southeast winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Slight chance of showers.
Friday night..West northwest winds 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Slight chance of showers in the evening.
Saturday..North northwest winds 5 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Saturday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Sunday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Sunday night..North northeast winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Monday..North northeast winds 5 knots becoming west northwest in the afternoon. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 330 Pm Est Wed Jan 22 2020
Synopsis..The robust northerly flow and elevated swells will continue to produce hazardous marine conditions over all the local waters through tonight. Elevated seas and wind speeds will then gradually diminish late tomorrow through Friday as the surface low to our east slowly pushes further into the atlantic.
Gulf stream hazards..Hazardous winds and significantly higher seas continue tonight, with elevated seas remaining through much of the week. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of jan 20, 2020 at 1200 utc... 5 nautical miles southeast of fowey rocks. 7 nautical miles east northeast of port everglades. 5 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 10 nautical miles east southeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Key Biscayne, FL
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location: 25.7, -80.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 222238 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 538 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2020

Update. Regarding reports of precipitation on West Palm Beach: further analyses of the layer/sfc temperatures indicate it is too warm to support snow anywhere across SoFlo. What is being reported in Palm Beach is a mix of light showers and graupel, which can be described as small, soft ice particles. Radar data this afternoon has been showing persistent areas of weak convection over the coastal waters off Palm Beach, which is manifesting the instability off the coastline. Meanwhile, winds are backing with height in the cold advection regime, becoming northeast around 700 mb and above, which will allow for any development of graupel over the coastal waters to be advected onshore with the light showers.

Mesoscale analyses show that cold air overlying the Gulf Stream/South Florida waters is providing enough instability for convective updrafts to deepen offshore and extend into icing layers in the mid levels, an ideal scenario for graupel formation. The airmass will remain cold enough for occasional graupel to survive all the way to the surface, potentially without fully melting once it is advected onshore by the mid level winds. However, any ice particulate matter that could reach the sfc is not forming in association with snow-growth processes.

The bottom line is that with sfc temps in the 50s to lower 60s, no snow has occurred, nor will occur across SoFlo in association with this activity. It is way too warm for snow to reach the low levels. But additional light to moderate showers may continue tonight with occasional instances of rain mixed with graupel.

Reynes/Cohen

Prev Discussion . /issued 339 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2020/

Short Term (Rest of Today-Thursday) .

There is a meso-low that has developed just north of the Bahamas, with a cloud band on the southwest side that is well defined on visible satellite. As this band pushes through it will help bring a slight chance of showers for the east coast later today. The band will also allow for a continued push of breezy and at times gusty northerly winds. These winds will continue to bring hazardous marine and beach conditions to South Florida.

Winds will gradually veer to northeasterly overnight, this will allow overnight/morning lows to be much warmer across the region. Lows will be 15 to 20 degrees above this morning lows. Minima temps tonight will be in the 50s, except upper 40s west of Lake Okeechobee.

Temperatures will continue to moderate after Sunrise on Thursday. The with an easterly breeze across the region. A slight moisture return will allow for the chance of a few isolated to scattered showers over the Atlantic waters and east coast region. High temperatures Thursday will be in the mid 70s across the region.

Long Term (Thursday Night Through Wednesday) .

As the area of low pressure in the Atlantic continues to move off to the east, a ridge of high pressure will build into South Florida on Thursday night and into Friday. Temperatures will continue to be on a warming trend as the winds will shift around to a more south to southeasterly direction. Low temperatures on Thursday night will range from the mid 50s across the northwestern interior to the mid 60s across the east coast metro areas. A slight chance of showers cannot be ruled out through the end of the work week across the east coast. High temperatures on Friday will range from the upper 70s across the east coast to the lower 80s across the interior sections.

An area of low pressure in the Great Lakes region will continue to move northeastward on Friday and the cold front associated with this system will begin to approach the Florida peninsula from the northwest. As the area of low pressure deepens and moves northeastward, the cold front will push through South Florida later in the day on Saturday and into Saturday night. This cold front will be weakening as it moves through and it will not have a lot of low level moisture to work with. Therefore, there will only be a slight chance of showers ahead of this front mainly over the Atlantic and Gulf coastal waters Friday night into Saturday.

Behind the cold front, another shot of cold air advection will move into the region which will allow for overnight lows to dip into the mid to upper 40s across the northwestern interior to near 60 across the east coast each night through the weekend and into early next week.

The latest GFS and the ECMWF continue to show a surface low developing in the Gulf of Mexico early next week along the stalled out frontal boundary that will be to our south. The latest GFS has the system farther north then previous runs and it is starting to come into agreement with the ECMWF with bringing an increased amount of moisture into South Florida. Therefore, the chances of rain have increased for early next week and a blend of the models was used in the forecast. This will continue to be monitored as the rest of the week progresses.

Marine .

Hazardous marine conditions will continue across South Florida with dangerous high seas in the Atlantic waters and particularly the Gulf stream. Seas in the Atlantic tonight will range between 10 and 15 feet especially in the Gulf Stream. Windy northerly winds will continue to affect South Florida waters with gusts getting up Gale Force conditions today in the Atlantic waters. The winds will begin to gradually subside and veer tonight and by Thursday afternoon they will be 10 to 15 knots from the northeast/easterly direction.

Aviation .

Generally VFR conditions throughout the period. A meso-low is producing a band of clouds that may bring brief period of SCT or BKN low clouds and an isolated shower but too limited to include in taf. Breezy and at time gusty northwesterly winds this afternoon. Winds will become less gusty and gradually subside as we move throughout the period. Winds will also veer throughout the period from NW-N-NE-E by tomorrow morning.

Beach Forecast .

A building northeast swell today through Friday in the Atlantic waters will allow for a High Risk of Rip Currents along the east coast beaches of South Florida. The breakers along the beaches of Palm Beach County will also be building to 7 to 8 feet today at least through Thursday. Therefore, a High Surf Advisory has also been issued for the beaches of Palm Beach County through Thursday evening.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 60 75 63 76 / 20 20 30 20 Fort Lauderdale 60 75 65 76 / 20 20 20 20 Miami 59 75 64 77 / 20 20 20 20 Naples 53 77 60 77 / 10 10 0 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for FLZ168.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ610-630.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for AMZ650-651-670- 671.

Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for GMZ656-657- 676.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 2 mi59 min 72°F1015.1 hPa
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 8 mi29 min NNW 18 G 20 61°F 76°F1015.8 hPa (+0.4)
PEGF1 27 mi59 min 1015.7 hPa
MDKF1 31 mi89 min 61°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 34 mi89 min 60°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 36 mi89 min 63°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 36 mi149 min 62°F
THRF1 36 mi149 min 63°F
JBYF1 38 mi89 min 60°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 39 mi149 min 62°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 39 mi149 min 64°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 40 mi149 min 61°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 42 mi89 min 60°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 44 mi89 min 61°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 45 mi89 min 65°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 46 mi89 min 64°F
NRRF1 47 mi89 min 63°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 47 mi149 min 64°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 47 mi89 min 58°F
TBYF1 48 mi89 min 60°F
LRIF1 48 mi89 min 62°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miami, Miami International Airport, FL10 mi36 minNNW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy60°F46°F62%1016.3 hPa
Miami, Kendall-Tamiami Executive Airport, FL14 mi36 minNNW 1110.00 miFair59°F48°F67%1016 hPa
Miami, Opa Locka Airport, FL16 mi36 minNNW 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy59°F48°F69%1016.7 hPa
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL19 mi93 minNW 1410.00 miFair62°F45°F55%1015.2 hPa
Hollywood, North Perry Airport, FL21 mi36 minNNW 16 G 1910.00 miMostly Cloudy60°F48°F65%1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMIA

Wind History from MIA (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNW9N65N8N4N4N8NW9NW6N6NW6
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2 days agoS4S5SW4W3SW4W4CalmCalmCalmW3W4NW4NW45N864NW10N10NW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Key Biscayne Yacht Club, Biscayne Bay, Florida
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Key Biscayne Yacht Club
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:33 AM EST     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:15 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:34 AM EST     2.06 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:09 PM EST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:03 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 05:56 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:35 PM EST     1.89 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0-0.3-0.300.51.21.7221.81.510.60.20.10.20.611.51.81.91.71.30.8

Tide / Current Tables for Miami Harbor Entrance, Florida Current
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Miami Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:20 AM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:05 AM EST     2.15 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:15 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:00 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:45 AM EST     -1.51 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 01:51 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:03 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 05:27 PM EST     1.75 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:56 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:53 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.4-0.40.81.51.92.11.80.90-0.6-1-1.4-1.5-0.90.211.41.71.60.9-0.1-0.8-1.2-1.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.