LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Mid-level ridging will remain over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through the remainder of the work week, with Hurricane Francine riding along the top of the ridge and stalling over the Mississippi Valley.
This will finally pull the frontal boundary that has been sitting over Central Florida northward, bringing along the abundant moisture that has been over the region with it. PWAT values will drop to around 2 inches, still supporting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms (50-70% PoPs) firing along sea breeze boundaries, with the best chances in the northern & interior portions of South FL.

Over the weekend and into early next week, guidance is starting to come into better agreement on how the synoptic pattern unfolds, but there is still notable uncertainty in the forecast. In general, most guidance has mid-level troughing associated with the remnants of Francine spreading across the Southeast US, with a surface low developing off the SE US coast. Troughing would gradually push down over the Florida Peninsula, with W-NW mid-level flow bringing a drier than normal airmass (PWAT around 1.5-1.8 inches) over South FL by late weekend into early next week. This would support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms (30-50% PoPs) each day, primarily focused over interior areas. As mentioned before, there is notable uncertainty, with some guidance keeping the troughing and drier air further north over north-central FL, with South FL remaining in a 2-2.2 inch PWAT airmass with higher rain chances. Confidence will increase in the forecast in the coming days.

Regardless of how the specific pattern plays out, there appears to be no relief in sight for the hot and humid temperatures. This week will wrap up with highs remaining in the low 90s and heat indices in the 105-110 range, which look to continue over the weekend and into next week. More heat advisories may be needed in the future, but it will be dependent on the rain chances and cloud coverage.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 730 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Predominately VFR conditions prevail, though IFR conditions could linger near APF due to lower CIGs through 13-14Z. TSRA may develop after 18Z with the most likely window generally being between 20-00Z along the east coast; short-fused TEMPOs could be necessary for sub-VFR conditions. Winds generally ESE around 10 kt.

MARINE
Issued at 254 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Light south-southeasterly winds will continue across most of the local waters through most of the week. Seas across the Atlantic waters will remain at 3 feet or less. Across the Gulf waters, seas will be at 2 feet or less today, but distant Hurricane Francine will bring in elevated seas and swell starting tonight, with seas building to 2-4 feet by Thursday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day. Winds and seas could be locally higher in and around showers and storms.

BEACHES
Issued at 254 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Light onshore flow and lingering northerly swell will result in a moderate risk of rip currents along Palm Beach County beaches through the end of the week, with a low risk for the rest of the Atlantic Coast beaches. Increasing westerly swell associated with distant Hurricane Francine will lead to elevated rip current risks for the Gulf beaches starting on Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 90 78 91 79 / 80 70 60 30 West Kendall 92 76 92 77 / 80 60 60 20 Opa-Locka 91 78 92 79 / 80 70 60 30 Homestead 91 78 92 79 / 80 60 50 20 Fort Lauderdale 89 78 90 79 / 80 70 70 30 N Ft Lauderdale 90 78 91 79 / 80 80 70 30 Pembroke Pines 92 78 93 79 / 80 70 70 30 West Palm Beach 90 77 91 79 / 80 80 60 30 Boca Raton 91 78 92 79 / 80 80 60 30 Naples 92 79 92 79 / 60 30 40 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ069-070.

AM...None.
GM...None.