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AMZ651 Coastal Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl From 20 To 60 Nm Excluding The Territorial Waters Of Bahamas- 1000 Pm Edt Fri Sep 22 2023
Rest of tonight..E ne winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Period 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A chance of showers late in the evening. A chance of tstms through the night. Showers likely after midnight.
Sat..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. Period 8 seconds. N ne swell 3 ft. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Tstms likely in the morning. Showers likely through the day. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..E se winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft along the coast and 3 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft in the gulf stream. Period 10 seconds. N ne swell around 3 ft. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Showers and tstms likely.
Sun..E se winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft along the coast and 3 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft in the gulf stream. Period 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Sun night..E se winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Mon and Mon night..E se winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Tue and Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A chance of tstms. Showers likely. A slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Wed and Wed night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms.

AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 1000 Pm Edt Fri Sep 22 2023
Synopsis..
a gentle to moderate northeasterly flow will develop across the local waters through the end of the week and into the first part of the weekend. This wind flow will become more easterly by the second half of the weekend into early next week. Wave heights across the atlantic waters are forecast to become hazardous Friday night into Saturday as a northeasterly swell pushes into the region. Thus, a small craft advisory is now in effect from early Saturday through Saturday evening for the atlantic waters offshore of palm beach county. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms will be possible across all local waters each day through the weekend and into next week.
gulf stream hazards: seas up to 7 feet possible Friday night into Saturday.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of sep 19, 2023 at 12 utc...
7 nautical miles east of fowey rocks. 16 nautical miles east of port everglades. 10 nautical miles east of lake worth. 6 nautical miles east northeast of jupiter inlet.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KMFL 230605 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 205 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 201 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

A resurgence of deeper tropical moisture into the area will continue through the remainder of today as a surface trough (a.k.a. Ophelia's "moisture tail") will gradually lift northwards across the Florida Straits the rest of today into tomorrow. As the parent system Ophelia is steered to the north in conjunction with the mid-level trough, the associated boundary will be lifted northwards into South Florida.
Moisture pooling along the boundary combined with diurnal heating will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms developing along mesoscale boundaries during the afternoon hours today and potentially lasting into a good chunk of the evening as well. It won't be a complete washout but intermittent rounds of scattered showers and storms are certainly possible later today. Heavy rainfall could potentially result in localized flooding concerns especially as rainfall could continue to back-build over vulnerable urban areas. Hazards that will be in play in and around thunderstorm activity include the following: heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. High temperatures will remain in the upper 80s across the majority of the region before rain-cooled downdrafts lower temperatures into the 70s across portions of the area.

The soggy pattern continues into the second half of that weekend as the pesky boundary ("moisture tail") remains entrenched across the region. As the boundary lifts northward, south-south easterly wind flow will prevail across the region further acting to transport deeper low-level moisture into our area. Mesoscale boundaries will once again serve as the primary driving force for convection initiation and propagation with heavy rainfall concerns remaining with us once again on Sunday. High temperatures will trend a tad warmer on Sunday with highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s across the region.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 201 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

A similar ebb and flow pattern will continue each day through the beginning of next week with a relatively quiet overnight and morning across the area before convection trends upwards during the afternoon hours. From a synoptic standpoint, the mid-level trough will advect north eastward into the North Atlantic with the rebuilding of mid-level ridging occurring across the Gulf of Mexico, Florida, and the western Atlantic during the early week period. Warmer values aloft and a relatively quiet synoptic pattern will once again allow for the primary driver of our weather pattern remaining in the mesoscale domain with the best ascent and vertical motion occurring along boundary collisions.
While parameters don't necessarily point to strong convection, given the ample CAPE in play each afternoon, gusty winds and frequent lightning will remain possible with the most robust thunderstorm activity. Deep tropical moisture will also continue to lead to efficient rainfall rates which could result in localized flooding. High temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to low 90s across the region with overnight temperatures remaining in the 70s across most of the area.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 102 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Mainly VFR this morning with light northerly winds. Winds later today become E/NE around 10 kts subsiding to around 5 kts late in the evening. SCT showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds.

MARINE
Issued at 201 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Beginning today northerly swell from Tropical Storm Ophelia will arrive across our northern Atlantic waters. This will result in hazardous conditions across the Atlantic waters off Palm Beach as seas build to 5 to 7 feet this morning. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the northern Atlantic waters (nearshore and offshore Palm Beach) from through 8pm this evening. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will also be possible through the weekend, and may result in locally hazardous conditions.

BEACHES
Issued at 201 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

A High Risk of Rip Currents continues for the Palm and Broward county beaches today with a moderate risk for Miami-Dade. An elevated risk of rip currents is likely to persist for the Atlantic beaches through the remainder of the weekend as easterly winds persist and a northerly swell builds in from Tropical Storm Ophelia.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 88 75 89 78 / 60 70 70 50 West Kendall 88 73 89 76 / 70 70 70 50 Opa-Locka 87 74 88 77 / 60 70 70 50 Homestead 86 74 88 77 / 60 70 70 50 Fort Lauderdale 87 75 87 77 / 60 70 70 50 N Ft Lauderdale 86 75 88 78 / 60 60 70 50 Pembroke Pines 86 74 88 77 / 60 70 70 50 West Palm Beach 88 75 87 77 / 50 60 80 50 Boca Raton 87 75 88 77 / 60 60 70 50 Naples 91 75 90 77 / 50 50 80 50

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ650-670.

GM...None.

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Dinner Key Marina
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Sat -- 12:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:40 AM EDT     2.08 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:45 AM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:47 PM EDT     2.18 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:30 PM EDT     0.87 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Dinner Key Marina, Florida, Tide feet

Miami Harbor Entrance
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Sat -- 12:30 AM EDT     1.47 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 12:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:09 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:23 AM EDT     -1.23 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:37 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:09 PM EDT     1.73 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:10 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:26 PM EDT     -0.87 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:15 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Miami Harbor Entrance, Florida Current, knots

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