LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024

As we move into the new week, the wave will progress across the US east coast assisting the frontal boundary further through the southeastern US. This will keep the deep layer moisture in our portion of the state, with a considerable increase as we move into Monday. Precipitable water values will rise to 120% of normal, with long term ensembles forecasting PWAT values reaching 2.2 - 2.4" on Monday and Tuesday. With this moisture and veering steering flow, convective activity will remain widespread, rather than the usual easterly flow, with an especially high rainfall totals forecast for Monday and Tuesday. Convective initiation is likely across the interior of the state, but outflow generated convection will likely drift towards the coasts. Model guidance continues to forecast widespread activity, with higher PoPs (60-70%) & QPF values, present early in the new week. The WPC has a majority of South FL at a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Monday and Tuesday.
While a Saharan dust layer continues to remain visible on satellite imagery across the west-central Atlantic, forecasts keep the core of this plume passing to our south early next week with little to no impact likely on the atmospheric moisture and convective activity.

As we move into mid-week, a stronger easterly flow returns with a building ridge, thus bringing the region back into the easterly summer regime for the latter half of the week. Thus, we will return to early coastal showers along the east coast, followed by interior/Gulf breeze driven SW FL late afternoon showers.

With plenty of low-level moisture, combined with near normal low to mid 90 degree temperatures, heat indices and other heat metrics will remain in an elevated state into next week. This will keep South Florida flirting with potential for heat advisory conditions. Daily product issuance will be dependent on the timing of daily convection and coverage.



AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the morning, although a brief restriction due to isolated showers will be possible at the east coast terminals. Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon, although confidence is not high in whether they will impact the terminals or remain inland. Light and variable winds overnight will trend E-SE at the east coast terminals, and W-SW at KAPF by this afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 115 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Gentle southeasterly winds will prevail over the Atlantic waters through the upcoming weekend, while winds over the Gulf waters will likely shift to the SW during the afternoons in response to the Gulf breeze circulation. Seas will generally decrease to 2 feet or less through the weekend, outside of any thunderstorms which could produce locally higher seas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 93 80 94 79 / 40 20 60 20 West Kendall 93 77 95 77 / 50 20 60 20 Opa-Locka 93 79 95 79 / 50 20 60 20 Homestead 91 79 92 79 / 40 20 50 20 Fort Lauderdale 90 79 92 79 / 40 20 60 20 N Ft Lauderdale 92 79 92 79 / 40 20 60 20 Pembroke Pines 95 78 96 78 / 50 20 60 20 West Palm Beach 93 78 93 78 / 50 20 60 30 Boca Raton 93 78 94 79 / 40 20 60 30 Naples 92 78 92 79 / 50 30 40 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ071>074-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.