Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chokoloskee, FL

UPDATE
Issued at 226 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop mainly across the interior as well as Southwest Florida through the early evening hours. With the gusty east southeasterly wind flow in place, some isolated shower activity cannot be ruled out across a portion of the east coast through the late afternoon hours. The latest KMFL 18z sounding shows PWAT values of 1.82 inches, however, there is a noticeable pocket of drier air between 400mb and 850mb. This drier air pocket will help to limit the strong thunderstorm activity, however, an isolated strong thunderstorm or two cannot be completely ruled out over Southwest Florida later this afternoon. With DCAPE values ranging between 800 to 1000 J/kg, this will be supportive of the potential for gusty winds with the stronger thunderstorms over Southwest Florida this afternoon. Most of the convection will gradually diminish later this evening due to the loss of diurnal heating. The exception to this will be over the Atlantic waters as well as a portion of the east coast metro areas, where isolated shower and thunderstorm activity may redevelop later this evening and into overnight hours. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the lower 70s across interior portions of Southwest Florida to around 80 along the immediate east coast.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 429 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Very little adjustments to ongoing forecast philosophy for the short term forecast as ensembles and high-res models keep sfc ridging in place across the midwest Atlantic and into the northern half of the Florida peninsula today. Also, a mid/upper lvl ridge will also be firmly in control of the region and helps in limiting available instability for deep convection.

The overall synoptic scenario will result in continuing ESE winds prevailing across SoFlo and pushing the east coast sea breeze further inland and into the western portions of the CWA The weaker afternoon Gulf breeze is expected to again remain pinned down against the west coast, where the highest POPs/Wx coverage will reside. However, one key change from previous forecast trends is a slightly better intrusion of mid lvl drier air, which along with the aforementioned ridging aloft, should bring max POPs/Wx down a bit. NBM has now 40-50% along the west coast later this afternoon, while most Atlantic metro areas seems to remain in the 15-25% range. These values look reasonable given the current model trends. In general, expect scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms this afternoon favoring interior and west coast areas, with main hazards being periods of lightning strikes, gusty winds and heavy downpours. Even drier air seems to filter into the area on Monday, knocking down POPs into the 20-30 percent for the west coast, and keeping the Atlantic coast areas in the teens.

Temperatures each day will continue to rise into the upper 80s (along the East Coast) and up into the mid 90s (across southwest FL), with heat indices peaking in the mid-upper 90s across the East Coast, and up into the triple digits across southwest FL.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 429 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Forecast philosophy for the long term remains unchanged with an upper lvl ridge dominating the region, and sfc high pressure dominating the central/western Atlantic and much of Florida to start the forecast period on Tuesday. Generally easterly to southeasterly flow will prevail, with a pattern of early afternoon east coast sea breeze generating isolated showers over the Atlantic metro areas. Scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms will then develop Tuesday afternoon over interior and west coast areas as the sea breeze pushes inland.

Starting Wednesday, model solutions show fair consensus in bringing a surge in moisture as the ridge over the Atlantic pushes southward and enhances moisture advection across SoFlo. This is due to flow veering to a more S flow, tapping into the pool of deeper moisture over the western Caribbean and the SE Gulf waters. Model PWATs remain near or above climatological normals, around 1.6 inches, and POPs coverage becoming widespread for Thursday and Friday. Max POps/Wx jump to 70-75% for much of the area through the end of the week, with increasing confidence in this active scenario as model solutions become more consistent.

Afternoon temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will remain hot with upper upper 80s to low 90s, and up into the mid 90s over interior areas and the west coast. Then a modest relief is expected from Thursday and through the weekend as cloud cover and shower coverage increases, with highs cooling down a couple of degrees. Overnight lows also look to remain elevated through the period.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.
There could be some isolated shower activity near the east coast terminals as well as KAPF through the evening hours. ESE winds will range between 10 to 15 kts tonight with gusts of 20 to 25 kts possible across the east coast terminals during the evening hours.
Gusty ESE winds continue on Monday across most of the terminals.
These winds will become more southerly across KAPF on Monday afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops.

MARINE
Issued at 429 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Mainly moderate east to southeasterly breeze will persist across most of the local waters through the middle of the week. Some periods of afternoon gusty winds are possible over the Atlantic waters during the next couple of days. The exception to this will be across the Gulf waters, where winds may become west southwest each afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible each day through the middle of the week, then numerous showers and storms possible for the second half of the week over both the Atlantic and Gulf waters.

BEACHES
Issued at 419 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Strong onshore flow and will continue to keep a high risk of rip currents across the Atlantic coastline through at least Tuesday evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 78 89 78 89 / 20 10 20 10 West Kendall 75 90 76 90 / 30 10 20 10 Opa-Locka 77 90 78 90 / 20 10 20 20 Homestead 78 89 79 90 / 30 10 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 79 87 80 88 / 20 10 20 20 N Ft Lauderdale 78 87 79 87 / 20 10 20 20 Pembroke Pines 79 91 79 91 / 20 10 20 20 West Palm Beach 79 88 80 88 / 10 10 20 20 Boca Raton 80 87 80 88 / 20 10 20 20 Naples 76 92 77 91 / 20 20 10 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.