Saturday, January25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Chokoloskee, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 6:05PM Saturday January 25, 2020 2:26 PM EST (19:26 UTC) Moonrise 7:51AMMoonset 6:53PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ657 Expires:202001260330;;494933 Fzus52 Kmfl 251431 Cwfmfl Coastal Waters Forecast For South Florida National Weather Service Miami Fl 931 Am Est Sat Jan 25 2020 Atlantic Coastal Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Out To 60 Nm And Gulf Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Out 20 Nm And Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Out 60 Nm...including The Waters Of Biscayne Bay And Lake Okeechobee. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves...along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves. Gmz656-657-260330- Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- 931 Am Est Sat Jan 25 2020
Rest of today..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots nearshore and north northwest 10 to 15 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet. Period 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tonight..North winds 5 to 10 knots nearshore and north 10 to 15 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet. Period 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday..North winds 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday night..NEarshore, north northeast winds 5 knots. East after midnight. Offshore, north northeast winds around 5 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Monday..West southwest winds 5 to 10 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely.
Monday night..North northeast winds around 5 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms late in the evening.
Tuesday..North northwest winds 5 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 5 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 5 knots becoming south southwest around 5 knots in the afternoon, then becoming northwest. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 931 Am Cst Sat Jan 25 2020
Synopsis..Light to at times moderate offshore flow today will transition to a moderate east to southeast Sunday into Sunday night as a weakly organized surface low moves east over the central gulf of mexico. Light to at time moderate offshore flow follows beginning later Sunday night and lasting into mid week, when a second surface low passes south of area coastal waters. This low will bring moderate to at times strong easterly flow to mainly open waters late Tuesday night through Wednesday. Seas generally 4 feet or less expected into mid week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chokoloskee, FL
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location: 25.8, -81.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 251743 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1243 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

Aviation. Prevailing dry and VFR conditions throughout the period. There have been brief patchy MVFR cigs, but going with SCT low level clouds as vis satellite trends show breaking of clouds. Northwesterly winds the rest of the afternoon and evening, with L/V winds overnight.

Prev Discussion. /issued 942 AM EST Sat Jan 25 2020/

Update . Fog has dissipated this morning across the interior and west coast. A cold front continues to move through the region today. While the front will be mainly a dry front meso models continue to show the chance of a few showers possible in Miami-Dade this afternoon. Therefore, have increased POPs in this area for this afternoon. Otherwise, no major changes to the current forecast.

Prev Discussion . /issued 256 AM EST Sat Jan 25 2020/

DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT INTERIOR/WEST COAST UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING .

HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BEACHES OF PALM BEACH COUNTY .

Short Term . Fog is developing early this morning over the interior and west coast metro areas. The fog should continue to develop and should become dense in some areas through rest of the early morning hours with visibilities falling down to 1/4 of a mile or less. The fog should also spread into the east coast metro areas toward sunrise reducing the visibilities. Therefore, a dense fog advisory has been issued for the interior and west coast metro areas early this morning until 8 AM EDT. The east coast will also be monitor for possible dense fog and if the dense fog does form towards sunrise then a short fused dense fog advisory will be needed.

The fog should burn off through the morning hours, as a cold front over Central Florida continues to move southward and through South Florida during the day hours today. The passage of the cold front will allow for a northerly wind flow which in turn will allow for drier and cooler weather to work into the region from the north for tonight into Sunday.

Highs today will be in the 70s over most areas, except around 80 over the southern interior areas of South Florida. Lows tonight will fall into the 40s over most areas, except lower to mid 50s east coast metro areas and around 40 west of Lake Okeechobee. The winds will be light tonight, so no wind chill issued over South Florida. Highs on Sunday will be only getting up into the lower to mid 70s, except around 70 west of Lake Okeechobee.

Long Term .

Monday through Tuesday Morning .

A complex and progressive pattern remains established through late week as broad troughing, and a series of shortwaves encompass the CONUS. With that said, the forecast continues to be challenging for the beginning of the week with respect to a surface low that is forecast to develop over the Gulf of Mexico late Sunday/early Monday. The generation of the low will be in response to the first shortwave perturbation of the period. As the system closes in on the Florida peninsula, a remnant boundary to our south is progged to lift northward, increasing instability across South Florida. Uncertainty in timing has arisen with the latest GFS and ECMWF guidance slowing the forward propagation of the system as it reaches our area. This has resulted in rain chances to begin increasing early Monday and continuing through early Tuesday.

Moreover, incessant variability from run to run regarding the system's intensity has compounded uncertainty in the forecast. Although the ECMWF has maintained some congruity, the GFS is now much weaker than previously suggested. This seems to be due to the shortwave's deamplification as it approaches the area. Despite this, when comparing forecast soundings at various locations, there remains a non-zero chance for stronger convection that may be capable of producing isolated wind gusts, lightning, and minor localized flooding. Therefore, PoPs maintain scattered to numerous coverage across the area, especially for the Gulf and Atlantic waters. At this time, have kept the mention of isolated thunderstorms in the event there is adequate instability, moisture, and shear across the region, which are reflected in forecast soundings. As always, will continue to monitor over the upcoming weekend as the finer details should come into better focus.

Tuesday through Wednesday .

Mostly dry conditions resume through the middle of the week as the system journeys further into the Atlantic. While high pressure briefly returns, a synoptic pattern comparable to the one at the start of the week is progged to set up. This means increasing rain chances are possible across the region as another, albeit weak shortwave crosses the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. But to no surprise, there are model discrepancies with this system. Currently, the GFS has the low and associated moistures passing north of the region, whereas the ECMWF dampens the low over the Gulf before it has a chance to reach the state. Thus, have split the difference and kept a slight chance of rain in the forecast, mostly over the Gulf and Atlantic waters.

Thursday through Saturday .

Modest confidence returns for the tail end of the period as both the GFS and ECMWF reveal yet another area of unsettled weather approaching Florida ahead of the next, deeper amplifying southern stream trough. Per usual, coverage and intensity this far out in time is subject to change, and for that reason, have not strayed from guidance.

Temperatures for the extended period will remain close to seasonal averages with daytime maxima in the 70s across South Florida, and overnight lows in the 50s to 60s near the east coast.

Marine . The winds will swing from a light southerly flow early this morning to a light northerly flow today as a cold front moves through the local waters. The winds will remain light from the northerly direction tonight into Sunday before going southerly on Monday around 10 knots ahead of a another cold front.

A Small to Moderate northeast swell will continue to affect the Atlantic waters of Palm Beach county this weekend into early next week. This will keep the Atlantic Seas of Palm Beach County around 2 to 4 feet, while rest of the Atlantic waters will remain at 2 feet or less. The Gulf seas of South Florida will also remain at 2 feet or less through early next week.

Beach Forecast . Small to moderate northeast swell will continue to affect the Atlantic waters of Palm Beach County today into Sunday. Low tide will also be occurring this afternoon along the east coast beaches of South Florida. The combination of the northeast swells and low tide will lead to a High Risk of Rip Currents for the beaches of Palm Beach County through Sunday. Therefore, the High Risk of Rip currents will be extended through Sunday evening for the beaches of Palm Beach County. A Moderate Risk will also be up for the beaches of Broward County through Sunday.

Fire Weather . The drier air on Sunday over South Florida will allow for the relative humidity to fall down into the upper 20s to lower 30s over the interior and west coast metro areas with the east coast metro areas falling into the mid to upper 30s. However, the 20 foot winds will remain below 15 mph over all of South Florida on Sunday. Therefore, NO fire weather concerns are expected on Sunday over South Florida.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 51 70 58 74 / 0 0 10 40 Fort Lauderdale 55 72 61 75 / 0 0 10 50 Miami 55 73 60 76 / 10 0 10 50 Naples 49 71 55 72 / 0 0 10 50

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168.

AM . None. GM . None.

Aviation . 33/Kelly


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WPLF1 - Watson Place, FL 8 mi86 min 67°F
LMRF1 - Lostmans River, FL 19 mi86 min 67°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 22 mi86 min 68°F
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 26 mi101 min NNE 5.1 75°F 1020 hPa55°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 29 mi86 min 67°F
HREF1 30 mi86 min 68°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 33 mi86 min 68°F
SREF1 33 mi86 min 66°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 34 mi86 min 65°F
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 34 mi56 min NW 9.9 G 11 66°F 67°F1018.3 hPa
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 34 mi146 min 68°F
CWAF1 39 mi146 min 68°F
NRRF1 39 mi86 min 68°F
LRIF1 43 mi86 min 70°F
WWEF1 45 mi146 min 66°F

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Naples, Naples Municipal Airport, FL33 mi33 minWNW 810.00 miFair74°F55°F54%1017.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPF

Wind History from APF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW12SW8SW8W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW6N7N8N8N7NW7NW8
1 day ago3W10W7NW3CalmN4E6E7E7E4E4E3CalmNE5E6CalmE3NE5E5NE5SE5SE10S11SW9
2 days agoN9
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Tide / Current Tables for Chokoloskee, Florida
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Chokoloskee
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:56 AM EST     3.01 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:51 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:49 AM EST     -0.49 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:15 PM EST     2.66 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:03 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:53 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:29 PM EST     0.46 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.22.832.92.51.91.30.6-0-0.4-0.5-0.10.61.52.32.62.62.21.71.20.70.50.51

Tide / Current Tables for Pavilion Key, Florida
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Pavilion Key
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:45 AM EST     4.03 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:50 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:59 AM EST     -0.63 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:04 PM EST     3.55 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:03 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:54 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:39 PM EST     0.59 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.943.73.12.21.20.3-0.4-0.6-0.30.41.52.53.33.53.32.71.91.10.70.611.82.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.