Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chokoloskee, FL

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 246 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025

For the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend, the weather pattern across South Florida remains very similar featuring mostly dry conditions during this time frame. The mid level flow splits off as a weakening northern stream trough passing through the Southeast and into the western Atlantic Friday night into Saturday. At the surface, the main synoptic feature will be the large area of high pressure over the western Atlantic holding strong across the region keeping any fronts well off to the north. This will allow for a general easterly wind flow to prevail through the rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend. However, the pressure gradient will gradually weaken across South Florida over the upcoming weekend. This will allow for these easterly winds to subside during this time frame. There will be just enough lower level moisture to support the possibility of an isolated shower or two from time to time along the breeze.
However, any shower activity will be low topped and short-lived due to plenty of subsidence and dry air aloft. High temperatures for the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend will generally range from the lower 80s along the east coast to the lower 90s across the interior portions of Southwest Florida.

Heading into early next week, the latest global and ensemble guidance suite tries to hint at the possibility of a bit of a moisture surge as a weakening frontal boundary tries to push into the region from the north. The uncertainty in this portion of the forecast remains high as guidance remains in disagreement with how far south the front actually pushes as it will be in a weakening state as it approaches. Depending on how far south this front actually pushes, this may help to increase the shower and thunderstorm chances across portions of the region during this time frame. The latest forecast takes a blend of the models and increases the chances of showers heading into Monday. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures early next week will rise into the lower 80s across the east coast to the lower 90s across the interior portions of Southwest Florida.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 702 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025

VFR conditions expected for all sites for the 00Z TAF period.
Winds overnight will be lighter, with the gusty conditions expected to wrap up by 01Z, at the east coast sites. E/NE winds, around 10KT, continue overnight before strengthening around 14Z.
Sea breeze for KAPF at 18Z and easterly gusts to 20KT for the east sites. VCSH may be needed at KTMB/KMIA in the late afternoon hours.

MARINE
Issued at 1137 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025

In general, a moderate easterly breeze will remain in place across the local waters through the end of the week. These winds could become fresh at times especially heading into Thursday and Friday across the Atlantic waters. Across the Gulf waters, winds will become west northwest each afternoon due to the Gulf breeze. Seas across the Atlantic waters will range from 2 to 4 feet through the end of the week while seas across the Gulf waters remain at 2 feet or less. Winds are expected to decrease during the upcoming weekend as high pressure weakens over the Atlantic and weakens the local pressure gradient.

BEACHES
Issued at 1137 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025

The moderate and persistent east winds will keep the high risk of rip currents at the Atlantic beaches through the end of the week, and possibly into Saturday as days of onshore winds have likely caused plenty of breaks in the sandbar which promote rip current formation. Some decrease in rip currents is possible on Sunday as east winds should relax some by that point in time.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1137 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Lowest relative humidity values this afternoon and Thursday will approach 35 percent over interior SW Florida due to a combination of dewpoints in the lower 60s and high temperatures in the lower 90s. SPC has interior SW Florida in an elevated fire weather risk both days, which makes sense given the marginally low humidity levels and dry fuels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 73 83 73 83 / 0 20 10 10 West Kendall 68 86 69 85 / 0 20 10 10 Opa-Locka 71 85 71 84 / 0 10 10 10 Homestead 71 83 72 83 / 0 20 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 73 81 72 81 / 0 10 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 72 82 72 81 / 0 10 10 10 Pembroke Pines 73 86 73 86 / 0 10 10 10 West Palm Beach 70 83 70 82 / 0 10 0 10 Boca Raton 71 83 71 83 / 0 10 10 10 Naples 66 88 67 89 / 10 0 10 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.