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GMZ657 Expires:202312031000;;787839 Fzus52 Kmfl 022101 Cwfmfl
coastal waters forecast for florida national weather service miami fl 401 pm est Sat dec 2 2023
atlantic coastal waters from jupiter inlet to ocean reef out to 60 nm and gulf coastal waters from east cape sable to chokoloskee out 20 nm and chokoloskee to bonita beach out 60 nm...including the waters of biscayne bay and lake okeechobee.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves...along with the occasional height of the average highest 10 percent of the waves.
gmz656-657-676-031000- coastal waters from chokoloskee to bonita beach fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from east cape sable to chokoloskee fl out 20 nm- waters from chokoloskee to bonita beach fl from 20 to 60 nm- 401 pm est Sat dec 2 2023
Tonight..Winds se winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas less than 2 ft. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas less than 2 ft. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sun night..S sw winds 5 kt. Seas less than 2 ft. Period 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Mon..NEarshore, W winds 5 to 10 kt. Offshore, W sw winds 5 kt becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas less than 2 ft. Period 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Mon night..NEar shore, N winds 10 to 15 kt. Well offshore, N winds 10 to 15 kt becoming N ne in the morning. Seas less than 2 ft near shore and 1 to 2 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas less than 2 ft near shore and around 2 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tue night and Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and 2 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt near shore...except N ne 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt well offshore. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Thu and Thu night..E ne winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and 2 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop.

GMZ600 307 Pm Cst Sat Dec 2 2023
Synopsis..Moderate southeast to southerly flow persists into Sunday. A light to moderate offshore flow becomes established Sunday night into early next week in the wake of a cold front.

FXUS62 KMFL 022319 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 619 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 614 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Only change made in the near term forecast was to drag the mention of patchy fog further into western portions of the metro overnight. Was tempted to go areas of fog over the interior and over towards the Gulf coast but half mile probs weren't as high to raise the confidence level, so left as patchy fog for now, but that will be evaluated further once new guidance comes in later tonight.

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 204 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

The region remains situated in the warm sector between a cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico and an area of surface high pressure centered over the western Caribbean. As the weekend continues, a mid-level shortwave trough will push into the Great Lakes with an associated surface low off the northeastern United States coast. The cold front will advance into the peninsula pinching the Caribbean high back. Right now it appears that the moisture will not be sufficient enough to support widespread convection but a sea breeze on Sunday afternoon could develop and move inland of the Atlantic capable of supporting some shower activity. Besides shallow showers, the surface moisture can also support fog formation again overnight into Sunday morning.
Temperatures remain warm with mid to upper 80s on Sunday afternoon.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 204 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

By Monday, a weakening front is expected to pass through our region. Although the southern parts of the area wont experience much change in humidity or temperature (i.e. negative Theta-E advection), northern areas can expect a slight decrease in dewpoints and temperatures following the front. Isolated showers may occur near the lake region, but overall, the fronts passage should be predominantly dry across most areas given how far displaced the sfc. front will be from its mid-lvl/upper-lvl support.

We will see some modest cooling (generally to near to just above seasonal normals) on Tuesday behind the front, with a reinforcing front then expected on Wednesday. Behind this second boundary a brief shot of very dry (PWATs down below 0.4 inches, and dewpoints in the 30s and 40s) and cool air is expected to filter into the area late Wednesday into Wednesday night from the N-NW. Overnight lows Thursday morning may be some of the coolest of the season so far with 40s near the Lake and 50s elsewhere (with the 10kts or so of wind making for a chilly night by SFL standards).

The high to the north should quickly shift east Thursday-Friday resulting in winds veering, and the onshore component of the winds should moderate overnight lows beyond Thursday AM. That being said the cool airmass, characterized by 850 temps < 10C (i.e. < the 10th percentile for early December) will keep high temperatures slightly below normal Wednesday through Friday, with forecast highs generally in the low to mid 70s.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Light SE winds becoming light and VRB late tonight. Started the process of lowering Visbys after 08Z Sunday morning in some of the western metro locations and also APF with patchy fog expected. Fog should dissipate by 12-13Z. Light SW winds early in the day will give way to SE winds around 10 kts across the east coast metro in the afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 204 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Benign conditions are expected over the next few days. Calm seas and slightly breezy winds that will shift more southerly through the weekend. Rain chances return late Sunday to early Monday over the Atlantic waters. Winds will increase and turn northerly behind a series of quick moving cold fronts next week.

BEACHES
Issued at 204 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue through the weekend for the Atlantic beaches.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 74 85 71 85 / 10 10 10 10 West Kendall 71 85 68 85 / 10 10 10 10 Opa-Locka 73 86 70 85 / 10 10 10 10 Homestead 73 84 70 84 / 10 10 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 73 85 71 84 / 10 10 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 73 85 71 84 / 10 10 10 10 Pembroke Pines 72 85 69 84 / 10 10 10 10 West Palm Beach 71 85 69 84 / 10 10 10 10 Boca Raton 73 85 70 85 / 10 10 10 10 Naples 71 83 70 80 / 10 10 10 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.

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Chokoloskee
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Sat -- 03:55 AM EST     2.93 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:29 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:31 PM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:33 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:20 PM EST     2.35 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:25 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chokoloskee, Florida, Tide feet

Round Key
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Sat -- 02:35 AM EST     3.91 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:29 AM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:30 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:00 PM EST     3.14 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:34 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:01 PM EST     1.46 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:26 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Round Key, Florida, Tide feet

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