Sunrise 6:38 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 12:25 PM   Moonset 1:12 AM

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GMZ657 Expires:202405151700;;239520 Fzus52 Kmfl 150801 Cwfmfl
coastal waters forecast for florida national weather service miami fl 401 am edt Wed may 15 2024
atlantic coastal waters from jupiter inlet to ocean reef out to 60 nm and gulf coastal waters from east cape sable to chokoloskee out 20 nm and chokoloskee to bonita beach out 60 nm - .including the waters of biscayne bay and lake okeechobee.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with the occasional height of the average highest 10 percent of the waves.
gmz656-657-676-151700- coastal waters from chokoloskee to bonita beach fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from east cape sable to chokoloskee fl out 20 nm- waters from chokoloskee to bonita beach fl from 20 to 60 nm- 401 am edt Wed may 15 2024
.small craft should exercise caution - .
Today - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt near shore - .except sw 10 to 15 kt well offshore. Well offshore, gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and around 3 ft well offshore. Wave detail: S sw 3 ft at 6 seconds and S 2 ft at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Tonight - W sw winds 10 to 15 kt near shore - . Except sw 10 to 15 kt well offshore. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and around 3 ft well offshore. Wave detail: sw 3 ft at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms through the night. Thu - W sw winds 5 to 10 kt. NEar shore, gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: W sw 2 ft at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers in the morning. A slight chance of tstms. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Thu night - NEar shore, W nw winds 5 to 10 kt becoming W sw after midnight. Well offshore, W winds 5 kt becoming S se after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and around 2 ft well offshore. Wave detail: W sw 2 ft at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Fri and Fri night - S se winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Sat - S sw winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt near shore. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Wave detail: S sw 2 ft at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Sat night - S sw winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 0 to 1 foot near shore and around 2 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers in the evening. A slight chance of tstms through the night. A chance of showers after midnight. Sun - W sw winds around 10 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of tstms in the morning. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.

GMZ600 339 Am Cdt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis - A weak pressure pattern supports light wind flow and lowering sea states for the middle of the week. Onshore flow returns and becomes well established by the end of the week continuing into Saturday, resulting in a gradual build in seas to a range of 3 to 6 ft. Marine weather to become more unsettled by late in the week with approach of next weather maker.

FXUS62 KMFL 151121 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 721 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 136 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

A frontal boundary spurred forward by a southern stream mid-level trough could enter south central Florida by Thursday, briefly allowing a window for some increased shower and thunderstorm chances. The weak front lacks the support for more widespread activity which could provide more substantial relief from the heat but the available moisture, cooler air aloft, and lift from sea breeze boundaries and collisions could again allow for some stout convection on Wednesday at the least.

Temperatures aloft will cool to around -9 to -8 deg C on Wednesday into Thursday which could support a few strong to severe thunderstorms across the Lake Okeechobee region Wednesday afternoon and evening. A mitigating factor for more widespread convection south of the Lake Okeechobee region is the presence of the low level jet and other supporting dynamics aloft remaining either in northern or central Florida on Wednesday. The trough axis should enter the Atlantic by Thursday though some southward amplification is possible which will need to be monitored in case it provides support for additional stout convection on Thursday coincident with peak heating though mid-level temperatures may warm a degree or two for Thursday compared to earlier days.

Surface temperatures and dewpoints will continue to run on the warm side with heat index values in the triple digits each day.
Significant portions of the east coast metropolitan areas could flirt with 104 to 108 degree heat index values on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons which could necessitate a Heat Advisory for some areas. Things are not much better in Southwest Florida where 100 to 106 degree heat index values are widespread. Anyone sensitive to heat should plan to avoid extended exposure to the outdoors during the peak heating of the day and anyone partaking in outdoor activities or labor should ensure to take cooling rest breaks and remain hydrated.

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 136 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

The main story through this forecast period will be the potential for hazardous heat which will linger through most of the weekend.
Most of South Florida could experience heat necessitating at least a Heat Advisory through Saturday and this potential will be monitored through the week. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to be in the 90s area-wide each afternoon. Lower to mid 90s will be more likely for coastal areas with portions of interior South Florida potentially approaching the upper 90s or low 100s. Overnight low temperatures along the east coast metro mid to late week could struggle to fall below 80 degrees and even portions of the Naples metro may not fall below the upper 70s.
This could lead to a period of several days where relentless sunshine, building heat, and a lack of relief overnight could lead to escalating heat illness risk.

By the weekend, the mid-level low begins to exit into the Atlantic off the Mid-Atlantic states with the potential for a southward advancement of the associated front. If the front is able to move into the area, it could provide a small bit of relief from the heat late in the period. If the front stalls to the north, the excessive heat risk could linger through the end of the forecast period as southerly flow continues. Guidance is beginning to trend towards the amplification of the mid-level trough along the Atlantic coast of Florida late in the period that could potentially provide extra support to push the boundary through the area to close out the extended forecast period early next week.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 718 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

VFR conditions will generally prevail throughout the forecast period. Southerly winds early this morning will increase out of the SW by late morning across all terminals, and will be gusty at times through the afternoon hours. Shower and thunderstorm activity may increase late in the afternoon mainly near KAPF and KPBI as a weakening frontal boundary approaches from the northwest.

MARINE
Issued at 136 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Advisory level wind flow will become southwesterly and remain elevated as the pressure gradient remains tight with low pressure passing through the Southeast. Cautionary conditions should continue into the end of the week until the low completely passes.

BEACHES
Issued at 136 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

A moderate rip current risk will linger today as winds only slowly subside and onshore flow in the seabreeze zone continues.
The risk for rip currents should lessen towards the end of the week as the low across the Mid-Atlantic moves further away.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 95 79 95 77 / 30 40 50 10 West Kendall 96 76 96 74 / 30 40 50 0 Opa-Locka 96 79 96 76 / 30 30 50 10 Homestead 94 79 94 76 / 30 40 40 10 Fort Lauderdale 94 79 93 76 / 40 30 50 10 N Ft Lauderdale 95 79 94 76 / 40 30 50 10 Pembroke Pines 97 79 98 77 / 30 30 50 10 West Palm Beach 95 76 93 73 / 50 30 50 10 Boca Raton 96 77 96 75 / 40 30 50 10 Naples 90 79 90 77 / 30 30 30 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ650-651- 670-671.

GM...None.

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Chokoloskee
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Wed -- 02:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:53 AM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 10:10 AM EDT     2.32 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:23 PM EDT     1.14 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:50 PM EDT     2.47 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chokoloskee, Florida, Tide feet

Round Key
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:51 AM EDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 08:50 AM EDT     3.10 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:21 PM EDT     1.89 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:30 PM EDT     3.30 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Round Key, Florida, Tide feet

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