Sunrise 6:37 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 2:59 PM   Moonset 2:40 AM

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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 1000 Am Edt Sat May 18 2024
Rest of today - S sw winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and 2 to 3 ft well offshore. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Tonight - S sw winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and 2 to 3 ft well offshore. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers late in the evening. A slight chance of tstms through the night. A chance of showers after midnight. Sun - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and around 3 ft well offshore. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of tstms in the morning. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms. Sun night - W winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and around 3 ft well offshore. Wave detail: W sw 2 ft at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters smooth. A chance of showers late in the evening. A chance of tstms through the night. Showers likely after midnight. Mon - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and 2 to 3 ft well offshore. Wave detail: W sw 2 ft at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Mon night - N nw winds 5 to 10 kt becoming N ne in the morning. Seas 2 ft or less nearshore and 2 to 3 ft offshore. Wave detail: nw 1 foot at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Tue - NE winds 5 kt becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas less than 2 ft. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of tstms in the morning. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms. Tue night - NEarshore, N nw winds around 5 kt becoming E ne 5 kt after midnight. Offshore, E ne winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of tstms late in the evening. A chance of showers through the night. A slight chance of tstms after midnight. Wed - E winds 5 kt becoming se around 5 kt in the afternoon, then becoming w. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of showers in the morning. A chance of showers and tstms.

GMZ600 937 Am Cdt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis - A light to moderate southwesterly to westerly flow prevails through tonight, becoming light and variable early next week. A light southerly to southeasterly flow is established Tuesday afternoon and continues through Wednesday night.

FXUS62 KMFL 181813 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 213 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

New LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 114 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

A hot and humid day is on tap across much of South Florida as a mid- level ridge continues to slide across the area, being pushed along by a shortwave moving along the northern Gulf states. The ridge will continue to keep conditions mostly dry, however, scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible for coastal locations, primarily on the Atlantic side as the sea breeze boundary pushes inland in the afternoon and early evening hours. Steep low-level lapse rates and enhanced shear along the sea breeze could support stronger storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and small hail, although is viewed as unlikely.

With south-southwest flow and warming air mass from the overhead ridge, high temperatures today will peak in the mid to upper 90s across much of South Florida, with heat index values up to 110 possible. Heat Advisories have been issued for all counties due to the hazardous conditions. Anyone sensitive to heat should plan to avoid extended time outside, and if you are required to be outside, take cooling breaks and stay hydrated.

On Sunday, the aforementioned shortwave and associated frontal boundary will slowly spread over the Florida Peninsula, kicking the ridge offshore into the Atlantic. This will lead to greater instability and better chances for showers and thunderstorms across the area, especially during the afternoon and evening hours when the sea breeze develops. The extra instability assisted by the shortwave along with the trough ushering in cooler temps aloft (-8 to -10 deg C) could enhance severe thunderstorm potential. Strong to damaging wind gusts due to storm strength or downbursts plus small to large hail will all be possible. Conditions will be monitored tonight for adequate assessment of the hazards with any convective storms tomorrow. Overall, the highest chances for showers and storms will be in northern portions of South Florida as low level flow will be southerly. PoPs around 60-70% are forecasted for Hendry, Glades, Palm Beach and Broward counties with mostly 40-50% PoPs elsewhere further south. Additionally, even with the increased cloud cover and a slightly cooler air mass compared to Saturday, heat will yet again be a concern as south- southwest flow persists over South Florida for much of the day ahead of the frontal boundary. High temperatures will be in the low to mid-90s, with heat index values ranging from 103-108. Heat advisories may be needed yet again for certain areas.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

The upper level trough will slowly move eastward across the area in the early to mid week time frame. Several impulses will move across the area which will keep elevated chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast each day, with PoPs peaking during the afternoon and early evening hours each day. The trough will finally start to make some progress late in the week pulling away from FL which will reduce rain/storm chances overall, however widely scattered diurnal sea-breeze driven storms will still be possible through Friday.

Temperatures will remain above normal next week, however a more easterly flow will provide a bit of relief for the east coast metro.
Still looking at highs each day in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the east coast metro and low to mid 90s for the Interior and SW FL.
Overnight lows will be closer to climatological lows ranging from around 70 near the lake, to low/mid 70s elsewhere.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 114 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the period.
Restrictions due to scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon over the east coast terminals between 18 to 00Z. SE winds are expected on the east coast for the afternoon sustained 10-15kts with gusts to 20kts while winds will become SW at KAPF.
Winds become variable overnight for a while but then increase out of the SW late in the night as a disturbance approaches the general vicinity. In addition, the disturbance could spark some local shower development in the late night and early morning tomorrow, thus VCSH has been introduced in the morning after 08Z.

MARINE
Issued at 114 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Mainly benign conditions over the weekend with light to moderate southwesterly to southerly flow. There will be scattered showers and thunderstorms this weekend, mainly over the Atlantic waters, which

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 81 93 77 91 / 20 70 40 70 West Kendall 78 95 74 93 / 10 60 40 60 Opa-Locka 80 95 76 92 / 20 70 40 70 Homestead 80 94 77 91 / 20 50 50 60 Fort Lauderdale 80 91 76 89 / 20 70 50 70 N Ft Lauderdale 79 93 75 90 / 20 70 50 70 Pembroke Pines 80 95 77 93 / 20 70 40 70 West Palm Beach 76 92 73 89 / 20 70 50 70 Boca Raton 78 93 74 90 / 30 70 50 70 Naples 79 91 77 89 / 20 50 40 50

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168- 172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.

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Everglades City
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Sat -- 12:00 AM EDT     2.14 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:55 AM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:28 PM EDT     2.55 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:46 PM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Everglades City, Barron River, Florida, Tide feet

Indian Key
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Sat -- 03:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:49 AM EDT     1.15 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:00 AM EDT     3.82 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:40 PM EDT     0.88 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:32 PM EDT     3.41 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Indian Key, Florida, Tide feet

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Miami, FL,