Tuesday, January21, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Villa Pancho, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 6:06PM Tuesday January 21, 2020 1:51 PM CST (19:51 UTC) Moonrise 4:30AMMoonset 3:23PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 940 Am Cst Tue Jan 21 2020
.small craft should exercise caution...
Rest of today..East winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay building to choppy in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay. Chance of rain showers after midnight.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay. Chance of rain showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Choppy on the bay subsiding to a light chop after midnight. Chance of showers in the evening, then slight chance of showers after midnight.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 10 knots shifting north in the afternoon. A light chop on the bay.
Thursday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Friday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay subsiding to a light chop in the afternoon.
Friday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. A light chop on the bay.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. A light chop on the bay building to a moderate chop in the afternoon. Chance of showers.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay subsiding to a light chop after midnight. Chance of showers.
GMZ100 Synopsis For Baffin Bay To Rio Grande Out 60 Nm- 940 Am Cst Tue Jan 21 2020
Synopsis..Adverse marine conditions are expected along the lower texas coast through the midweek due to the interaction between high pressure and low pressure and the eventual passage of a cold front. Cautionary wording for the bay waters and small craft advisories for the gulf waters are likely to be needed through at least Thursday. Improved winds and seas are anticipated towards the end of the week and into the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Villa Pancho, TX
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location: 25.88, -97.52     debug


Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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FXUS64 KBRO 211738 AAB AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1138 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2020

. 12z Aviation Update .

DISCUSSION. Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION. VFR conditions are anticipated through the afternoon and evening. No issues expected for the local terminals until overnight tonight when stratus builds down toward the surface leaving MVFR CIGS for all three sites. Southerly winds will also be on the increase during the day Wednesday with a few gusts in excess of 20 knots, especially for the coastal terminals (HRL and BRO).

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 330 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2020/

SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): Dry weather today and early tonight will be the result of 500 mb high pressure centered just south of the Baja Peninsula. This feature will then be rapidly suppressed late tonight through Wednesday as a mid-level trough transitions through the Central Plains. Isolated to scattered showers will develop late tonight, with more scattered to numerous convection anticipated on Wednesday. In both cases, the highest precipitation chances will occur over the northern half of the northern four counties of the BRO CWFA. Temperature-wise, while a persistent onshore flow will produce above normal values for tonight, daytime highs will be at more near normal levels courtesy of significant cloud cover throughout the entire forecast period and appreciable rain chances on Wednesday.

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday): Showers, and perhaps a rumble of thunder or two, associated with an H5 trough over the Plains/Texas will be exiting west-to-east across Deep South Texas Wednesday evening/night. At the surface, low pressure will develop over the high Plains Wednesday evening and move southeastward, dragging a southern moving cold front across Texas during the day on Thursday; the cold front is forecast to push through the BRO CWA Thursday afternoon or evening. Forecast models keep the region dry ahead of and behind the front due to subsidence on the back side of the H5 trough, with the RGV being upstream of the main trough axis. Northwesterly to zonal flow aloft and surface high pressure over Texas will continue through the day on Friday, maintaining dry and benign weather conditions.

Long-range models are actually in pretty good agreement with the overall pattern beyond Friday. Precipitation chances will increase again beginning early Saturday morning and continue through the day on Sunday, as a trough over the Desert Southwest and a Baja low/trough develop. These two troughs appear to coincide with each other and move towards Southern Texas on Saturday. Both the extended MOS guidance and long-range operational models are fairly aggressive with precipitation chances and development this weekend (50-70%). However, with the recent inconsistencies of the model guidance, only went with 20-30% PoPs Saturday morning through Sunday evening, for now. Will continue to monitor these trends and increase PoPs in later updates, if necessary. Both the latest GFS and ECM are in agreement that mid-level ridging will occur on Monday, resulting in drier conditions and warmer temperatures.

Temperatures will start off abnormally warm on Thursday, ahead of the cold front, with highs climbing into the upper 70s/lower 80s in most locations. Friday morning temperatures will rapidly cool behind Thursday's front, dropping into the upper 40s in the Northern Ranchlands and lower-mid 50s across the Rio Grande Valley. Near seasonal normal temperatures are expected Friday afternoon, with high temperatures near 70 degrees expected. A warming trend will commence starting Saturday, with highs reaching the upper 70s to near 80 degrees by Monday afternoon. Lows will remain generally cool, in the 50s to lower 60s, this weekend.

MARINE (Now through Wednesday): Buoy 42020 reported east-northeast winds around 12 knots gusting to around 14 knots with seas slightly under 5 feet with a period of 8 seconds at 250 CST/850 UTC. Strong winds and rough seas will occur along the Lower Texas Coast during the period due to an enhanced pressure gradient over the entire Gulf of Mexico. Small Craft Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory are likely to be needed, especially for the Gulf of Mexico waters from 0 to 60 nautical miles offshore.

(Wednesday Night through Sunday): Adverse marine conditions will continue at the start of the long term marine period due to moderate to strong southerly flow and moderate to high seas. Marine conditions will gradually improve through the day on Thursday as winds turn out of the north ahead of an approaching cold front, forecast to pass over the waters Thursday afternoon or evening. Convection may be possible along the front as it moves through. The strongest storms may produce cloud-to-water lightning, brief heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and locally rough seas. Behind the front on Friday, light to moderate winds and seas are expected. The pressure gradient does increase some this weekend, increasing winds and seas to or near Exercise Caution levels.

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. TX . None. GM . Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Wednesday for GMZ150-155-170-175.



This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Aviation Update . Frye-55


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PTIT2 - 8779770 - Port Isabel, TX 20 mi51 min E 12 G 18 65°F 65°F1028.1 hPa (-2.0)
BZST2 23 mi51 min E 19 G 20 64°F 65°F1026.3 hPa (-2.0)
PCGT2 - 8779748 - South Padre Island CGS, TX 23 mi51 min E 12 G 17 65°F 1027.3 hPa (-2.0)
PMNT2 47 mi51 min 62°F 67°F1028.3 hPa (-2.0)

Wind History for Port Isabel, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brownsville, Brownsville / South Padre Island International Airport, TX5 mi2 hrsESE 1010.00 miOvercast67°F48°F51%1029 hPa
Port Isabel, Port Isabel-Cameron County Airport, TX22 mi2 hrsESE 1510.00 miOvercast67°F48°F53%1029 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBRO

Wind History from BRO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE13
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NE11N11NE7N4N4N4N4CalmN3N4N5N3NW3N4N4CalmNE4E6E10E11
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1 day agoN13
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N7N5N5N6NW8NW7NW6NW8NW10NW7NW7NW9N7N8N9N10NE11NE16
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2 days agoSW6SW10S13S12--SE3SE3CalmN13
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Tide / Current Tables for Matamoros, Tamaulipas, Mexico
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Matamoros
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:30 AM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:29 AM CST     -0.75 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:17 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 03:22 PM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:24 PM CST     1.30 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:04 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.40.2-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.7-0.6-0.4-0.10.30.60.91.11.21.31.31.21.21.11.110.9

Tide / Current Tables for Port Isabel, Texas
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Port Isabel
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:29 AM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:42 AM CST     -0.62 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:16 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 03:21 PM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:56 PM CST     1.35 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:03 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.50.30-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.3-0.10.20.50.81.11.21.31.31.31.31.21.11.11

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Brownsville, TX (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Brownsville, TX
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.