Sunday, August18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Villa Pancho, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 8:04PM Sunday August 18, 2019 1:43 AM CDT (06:43 UTC) Moonrise 9:14PMMoonset 8:37AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 1013 Pm Cdt Sat Aug 17 2019
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds near 15 knots diminishing to south 10 to 15 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots and gusty in the afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay building to choppy in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Choppy on the bay subsiding to a moderate chop after midnight.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Monday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay subsiding to a light chop after midnight.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. A light chop on the bay building to a moderate chop in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay subsiding to a light chop after midnight. Slight chance of showers.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. A light chop on the bay building to a moderate chop in the afternoon. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay subsiding to a light chop after midnight. Chance of showers.
GMZ100 Synopsis For Baffin Bay To Rio Grande Out 60 Nm- 1013 Pm Cdt Sat Aug 17 2019
Synopsis..High pressure centered near the bahamas with ridge extending to the central gulf of mexico will interact with inland thermal troughing from west texas through the sierra madre through Monday, maintaining moderate southeast winds and moderate seas dominated by wind waves. Conditions improve gradually Tuesday and Wednesday as the ridge repositions over the eastern gulf and extends to the texas coast. A disorganized tropical wave in the southwestern gulf Thursday may reduce winds and seas further while increasing chances and coverage of showers and Thunderstorms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Villa Pancho, TX
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location: 25.88, -97.52     debug


Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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Fxus64 kbro 180524 aac
afdbro
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service brownsville tx
1224 am cdt Sun aug 18 2019

06z aviation update...

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation Vfr conditions will prevail through this TAF cycle.

Can't rule out a few low clouds through the morning hours,
however, flight categories should remain unchanged. The only story
will be the strong gusty winds during the daylight hours. Expect
southerly winds to increase to 20-25kts in gusts before decreasing
shortly after sunset.

Prev discussion issued 654 pm cdt Sat aug 17 2019
discussion... Updated for latest 00z aviation and included a fire
weather discussion below.

Aviation... Once again... Mainly a wind forecast for the next 24
hours. With "valley wind machine" pattern underway, one thing to
keep an eye on is possible brief MVFR ceiling development,
especially around mcallen miller airport, after 06z and through
just before daybreak. For now, have covered with scattered at
~1800 feet. Otherwise, just a few-scattered MVFR cumulus fractus
elsewhere later tonight, then perhaps a brief period (like today)
of broken lowVFR ceilings between 9 am and noon before conditions
mix out... Likely fewVFR.

As for winds, mid to late evening diminishing but still at 10
knots in general overall through the wee hours, then a quick
pickup to near 20 knots by late morning with gusts near 30 knots
soon after as pressure gradient maximizes Sunday.

52 bsg
fire weather... Had a spot request for a small wildfire in
southwest starr county late this afternoon... And the latest
observed dryness conditions (based on 100 hour fuels) were in the
critically dry level with extremely dry just to the east in
southern hidalgo county. Afternoon humidity fell below 25 percent
nearby at the falcon lake mesonet site, with frequent 20 foot
gusts to 20 mph (though sustained winds were closer to 8 to 10
mph). With a slight increase in wind Sunday afternoon but with
similar rh and forecast critically dry or worse fuel conditions, a
fire danger statement may be needed for areas along west of i-69c
(western brooks hidalgo through the rio grande plains). 52 bsg
prev discussion... Issued 253 pm cdt Sat aug 17 2019
short term (now through Sunday night): no big changes are
expected in the short term. A mid level ridge will continue to
provide subsidence over the region through the weekend. At the
surface, broad high pressure across the gulf of mexico will
interact with low pressure across northern mexico. This will
support breezy conditions over the eastern half of the forecast
area for the rest of this afternoon and again on Sunday.

Temperatures currently range from the mid to upper 90s along the
coast to a few degrees above 100 across the western portions. The
combination of hot temperatures and high dewpoints continue to
produce heat indices this afternoon between 106 and 110 degrees.

However, can't rule out a few hours of heat index values up to 113
degrees over portions of the rio grande valley into the falcon
lake region.

A another warm and humid night is expected with winds diminishing
somewhat overnight. Low temperatures tonight will be mainly in the
low 80s under partly cloudy skies. The mid level ridge builds over
texas on Sunday which will allow for another hot and rain-free day.

High temperatures on Sunday should be a degree or two higher than
today with the 500mb ridge nearly overhead. High temperatures will
range from the mid to upper 90s along the coast to around 105
degrees across the west. Heat index values of 107 to 112 degrees
will be likely across the area on Sunday due to a slight uptick in
moisture. Therefore, a heat advisory may be needed for portions of
deep south texas and the rio grande valley Sunday afternoon.

Long term (Monday through Saturday): 500mb subtropical ridge
across northwest texas Monday will continue to provide subsidence
across south texas through Tuesday. Low to mid level moisture is
expected to increase across portions of the western gulf of mexico
Wednesday into Thursday as a 500mb low inverted trough moves across
the southwest gulf of mexico Thursday. This will provide a slight
chance to chance of showers and thunderstorms... Mainly across the
coastal sections of the cwa... Wednesday into Thursday. At the very
least... The increase in cloud cover will allow high temperatures
to decrease a degree or two providing some relief to the oppressive
heat that has been entrenched across the area. The rest of the
forecast period is dependent on the development of a closed 500mb
low across the northwest gulf of mexico Friday. The ecmwf
continues to prog this feature and lifts it northward towards the
upper texas coast Saturday. If the ECMWF model solution is
correct... Subsidence will likely increase across southwest texas
Friday into Saturday which would limit seabreeze convection
across the rio grande valley and northern ranchlands. Will
mention a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across the
cwa through the rest of the week into the weekend for now as
higher rain chances will likely remain offshore the lower texas
coast towards the upper texas coast.

Marine (now through Sunday night): broad high pressure across
the gulf will support moderate onshore flow and low to moderate
seas through the period. Winds will gradually decrease this
evening across the bays, however, a slight uptick is expected
across the gulf waters after sunset. Small craft exercise caution
conditions will be likely on the on laguna madre and portions of
the gulf waters on Sunday.

Monday through Thursday... Light to moderate southeast winds will
prevail across the coastal waters with surface high pressure
across the eastern gulf of mexico. The pressure gradient will
remain unchanged across the lower texas coast Tuesday before
weakening on Wednesday. Light to moderate southeast winds will
prevail across the lower texas coast Tuesday before diminishing
Wednesday. Light southeast winds should prevail across the western
gulf of mexico Wednesday into Thursday.

Bro watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov rgv
aviation update... Frye-55


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PTIT2 - 8779770 - Port Isabel, TX 20 mi61 min SSE 11 G 13 83°F 84°F1011.8 hPa
BZST2 23 mi61 min SSE 6 G 8.9 80°F 79°F1011.1 hPa
PCGT2 - 8779748 - South Padre Island CGS, TX 23 mi61 min SSE 8 G 8.9 81°F 1012 hPa
RLIT2 29 mi61 min SSE 14 G 16 85°F 88°F1011.1 hPa
PMNT2 47 mi61 min 85°F 89°F1011.7 hPa

Wind History for Port Isabel, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brownsville, Brownsville / South Padre Island International Airport, TX5 mi1.8 hrsSSE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy85°F80°F85%1010.9 hPa
Port Isabel, Port Isabel-Cameron County Airport, TX22 mi1.8 hrsSSE 1110.00 miA Few Clouds84°F77°F80%1011.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBRO

Wind History from BRO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10S8--S5SE5S5--S12S13S16
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1 day agoS6----SE4Calm----S9S11S14
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2 days agoS5S5S5S6S5NE3CalmCalmS6SE7SE7SW7W3W3SE14E12----SE12SE9SE9SE8S8--

Tide / Current Tables for Matamoros, Tamaulipas, Mexico
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Matamoros
Click for Map
Sun -- 07:04 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:12 AM CDT     1.49 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:37 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:53 AM CDT     1.26 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:09 PM CDT     1.50 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:03 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:14 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.70.811.21.31.51.51.51.41.31.31.31.31.31.41.51.51.51.41.31.10.90.8

Tide / Current Tables for Port Isabel, Texas
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Port Isabel
Click for Map
Sun -- 07:02 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:30 AM CDT     1.06 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:36 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 12:04 PM CDT     0.90 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:40 PM CDT     1.04 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:02 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:12 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.20.30.50.70.911.11.1110.90.90.9111110.90.80.70.50.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Brownsville, TX (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Brownsville, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.