Tuesday, October22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Villa Pancho, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:31AMSunset 6:57PM Tuesday October 22, 2019 8:38 AM CDT (13:38 UTC) Moonrise 12:32AMMoonset 2:21PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 351 Am Cdt Tue Oct 22 2019
.small craft should exercise caution...
Today..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay.
Tonight..East winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Choppy on the bay subsiding to a moderate chop after midnight.
Wednesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. A light chop on the bay building to a moderate chop in the afternoon. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Thursday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots after midnight. A light chop on the bay building to choppy after midnight. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Friday..North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Choppy on the bay building to rough in the afternoon. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Saturday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest after midnight. A light chop on the bay subsiding to smooth after midnight.
GMZ100 Synopsis For Baffin Bay To Rio Grande Out 60 Nm- 351 Am Cdt Tue Oct 22 2019
Synopsis..Moderate to strong winds and building seas will continue through mid morning over the near shore gulf waters and through this afternoon on the offshore gulf waters. Marginal improvement will occur Wednesday and Thursday, but a strong front will arrive Thursday night into Friday morning, bringing adverse marine conditions for Friday through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Villa Pancho, TX
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location: 25.88, -97.52     debug


Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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Fxus64 kbro 221125 aaa
afdbro
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service brownsville tx
625 am cdt Tue oct 22 2019

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation Light north-northeast winds with a few passing high
clouds prevail across deep south texas this morning.VFR
conditions will continue for the next 24 hours as surface high
pressure builds across the region. Light winds will increase late
this morning with some gusts around 20 knots in the afternoon.

Light northeast to east winds are expected tonight.

Prev discussion issued 438 am cdt Tue oct 22 2019
short term (today through Wednesday): near normal temperatures will
prevail across deep south texas through the period. Dry northwest
flow aloft and surface high pressure across east texas will provide
subsidence across the CWA today. High temperatures this afternoon
will range from the lower 80s near the coast to the mid to upper 80s
inland as northeast winds continue. Winds will diminish and turn to
the east tonight as surface high pressure across east texas moves
eastward across the lower mississippi river valley. Low temperatures
tonight will generally fall in the 60s at most locations under clear
skies. High temperatures on Wednesday should reach the mid to upper
80s, some locations near falcon lake may reach the lower 90s. Low to
mid level moisture moves into the area on Wednesday resulting in an
increase in clouds Wednesday afternoon.

Long term (Wednesday night through Monday): the long term will
begin with increasing rain and thunderstorm chances into Thursday
as the return of southeasterly winds helps to bring an influx of
tropical moisture northward along the western gulf coast due to
an inverted surface trough over the bay of campeche. Pwats are
modeled to climb in excess of 2 inches. Pockets of locally heavy
rainfall will be possible with modest to moderate instability.

Not expecting a repeat of the weather that we had seen on Monday
morning as instability is modeled to remain lower and the low-
level jet remains weaker (no significant mid-latitude cyclone
over the central plains). The highest QPF and rain chances will
be expected to again favor along the coast but I do think more
areas to the west and north will receive some rainfall during
this event. Thursday will trend of around to slightly above
average temperatures.

Uncertainty then increases from Thursday night into the start
of the weekend as the mid-range models continue to show
significant differences in the upper level pattern and the
evolution of the next cold front across the region. The late range
nam solution along with the GFS show an open, positively tilted
upper level trough over the plains, with the axis moving across
the valley Friday night. Whereas, the ecmwf, continues to develop
a closed upper level low over the rockies by Thursday night and
digging southward into west texas and the texas panhandle for
Friday through Friday night before exiting northeastward from
Saturday into Saturday night. The exact timing of the next cold
front remains highly dependent on which model solution verifies.

Like the previous inherited forecast, I elected to continue to
lean more with the quicker GFS nam solution, which brings the
cold front across the CWA early Friday morning. The ECMWF is
much slower with a passage across the valley until Friday
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front,
especially along and just ahead of the boundary during late
Thursday night into Friday morning. Once again, the models do
vary on the amount of rainfall expected with the front. Breezy
to brisk northerly winds will push into the region behind the
front and will help to usher much cooler air into the region.

Based on the current forecasted timing of the front, expect
for temperatures on Friday to only top out in the low to mid
70s. Rain chances linger into Friday evening near the coast
before coming to an end Friday night as drier air ushers over
the region with clearing skies. With diminishing cloud cover
and wind speeds, overnight lows are to drop into the low to
middle 50s for most on Saturday morning.

Great weather will be expected this weekend as temperatures
remain below average under mostly sunny skies. Anticipate cool
starts each morning with temperatures then warming up into the
middle to upper 70s on Saturday and the low to middle 80s on
Sunday. Anticipate near to slightly above average temperatures
to return Monday. Monday remains generally rain free but could
not rule out some stray showers (silent 10 pops) over eastern
portions of the region.

Coastal areas could see possible wave run-up and minor coastal
flooding during astronomical high tide cycles through the end
of the week and into the start of the weekend with increased
surf conditions. The risk for rip currents will also remain
a concern into the start of the weekend as well.

Marine (now through Wednesday): buoy 42020 reported northeast winds
around 19 knots gusting to around 25 knots with seas of 5.9 feet
with a period of 6 seconds at 03 cdt 08 utc. Moderate to strong
northeast winds will prevail across the western gulf of mexico today
as high pressure builds across east texas this afternoon. The
pressure gradient slightly weakens tonight as surface high pressure
moves eastward across the northern gulf allowing winds to veer to
the east. Marine conditions will continue to be adverse as moderate
easterly winds and moderate to high seas are expected through
Wednesday. Additional small craft advisories will likely be needed
tonight and Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Monday: elevated to adverse marine
conditions continue Wednesday night into Thursday with light to
moderate to high seas and moderate southeasterly breezes. Marine
conditions then deteriorate further late Thursday night into
Friday with the passage of the next cold front. High seas and
brisk north winds will quickly develop behind the front including
gusts of near gale force. Adverse marine conditions continue into
Saturday night before gradually improving Sunday into early next
week. Anticipate for small craft advisories will likely be needed
for much of the period through at least Saturday.

Bro watches warnings advisories
Tx... Coastal flood advisory until 8 am cdt this morning for txz256-
257-351.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 7 pm cdt this evening for gmz170-175.

Small craft advisory until 10 am cdt this morning for gmz150-155.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov rgv
63


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PTIT2 - 8779770 - Port Isabel, TX 20 mi56 min NNE 15 G 19 78°F 81°F1016.8 hPa
BZST2 23 mi56 min NE 22 G 25 79°F 81°F1015.9 hPa
PCGT2 - 8779748 - South Padre Island CGS, TX 23 mi56 min NE 15 G 20 79°F 1016 hPa
42044 - PS-1126 TABS J 33 mi98 min 1015.8 hPa (+1.1)
PMNT2 47 mi56 min 76°F 79°F1017.3 hPa
42045 - PI-745 TABS K 59 mi98 min NE 21 G 27 68°F 82°F1015.3 hPa (+0.8)

Wind History for Port Isabel, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brownsville, Brownsville / South Padre Island International Airport, TX5 mi45 minNNE 1110.00 miOvercast78°F70°F76%1016.7 hPa
Port Isabel, Port Isabel-Cameron County Airport, TX22 mi45 minNE 1410.00 miFair77°F69°F77%1016.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBRO

Wind History from BRO (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Matamoros, Tamaulipas, Mexico
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Matamoros
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:26 AM CDT     2.03 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:32 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:32 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 03:21 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:46 PM CDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:56 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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22221.91.81.71.71.61.51.41.31.10.90.80.60.50.50.50.70.91.11.41.6

Tide / Current Tables for Port Isabel, Texas
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Port Isabel
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:30 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:58 AM CDT     1.88 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:31 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 03:20 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:57 PM CDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:54 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.91.91.91.81.71.71.61.51.41.31.110.80.60.50.40.30.40.50.711.21.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Brownsville, TX (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Brownsville, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.