Thursday, April9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Villa Pancho, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 7:51PM Thursday April 9, 2020 6:00 PM CDT (23:00 UTC) Moonrise 8:54PMMoonset 7:33AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 337 Pm Cdt Thu Apr 9 2020
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay subsiding to a light chop after midnight. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots shifting northwest in the afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay.
Sunday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots after midnight. A light chop on the bay building to a moderate chop after midnight.
Monday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay.
Monday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay subsiding to a light chop after midnight.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. A light chop on the bay building to a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
GMZ100 Synopsis For Baffin Bay To Rio Grande Out 60 Nm- 337 Pm Cdt Thu Apr 9 2020
Synopsis..The cold front continues to push south into Friday with northerly winds and building seas, especially offshore into Friday night. Thunderstorms are expected through tonight, with frequent lightning and damaging winds possible. The front lifts north as a warm front on Saturday before another weak cold front returns Saturday night into Sunday. Marine conditions, especially offshore may remain adverse through most of the period. Small craft caution conditions are likely and small craft advisories may be needed at times.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Villa Pancho, TX
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location: 25.88, -97.52     debug


Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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FXUS64 KBRO 091900 AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 200 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020

. Severe Weather Expected Late This Afternoon through the Overnight .

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): Busy short term period expected as low pressure develops across northeastern Texas and a cold front approaches Deep South Texas. The 500mb ridge continues to weaken into this evening and a shortwave arrives across the western counties late this afternoon into this evening and dives southeast toward the lower valley into Friday morning. Temperatures have already reached the low 90s across the RGV with dewpoints ranging from 71-73. Model soundings show CAPE values above 3500-4000 j/kg across the western counties and upper RGV, with bulk shear eventually reaching between 40-50 kts. Lapse rates steepen into this evening as well to near or above 7 degrees C/km. This would help support supercell thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail, potentially above 2 inches.

Overall the most severe convective parameters continue to fall in line with the current SPC enhanced risk, with slight risk edging through most of the mid and lower RGV and marginal risk mainly along the coast. To help with afternoon CAM initialization and get a newer peek at the strength of the coastal cap, an 18Z balloon was released at BRO. Low level shear remains light, but the cap is diminishing. There may be little to stop storms from progressing further southeast across the valley into tonight.

The cold front is expected to gradually head south into Friday before stalling and expected to return north as a warm front into Saturday. The 500mb low across southern California continues to deepen, strengthening the southwesterly flow aloft into Friday night, and sending another shortwave across South Texas. Thunderstorm chances through Friday and into Friday night, with near normal temperatures. The best chance for any severe weather into Friday night remains mainly north of the ranchlands.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday): A warm front will continue to advance north into central Texas on Saturday. This allows for humid southerly flow and very warm temperatures to return across Deep South Texas. A slight chance for a few lingering showers may commence near the coast and across the northern ranchlands for Saturday morning.

Our attention then turns to a sharp upper level trough moving into Texas Saturday night into Sunday. This helps to propel a pacific cold front across the region from late Saturday night into early Sunday. We will keep an eye on the convective potential in regards to this front. Latest model guidance concentrates the activity to the north of the CWA as model soundings show a fairly strong capping inversion over our region. However, environmental conditions would support possible severe weather, if the capping inversion, were able to erode. The Storm Prediction Center does highlight a slight risk of severe weather just north of the CWA on Day 3. Behind the frontal passage, much drier air advances across the region under moderate northwesterly flow, which could produce potential elevated to critical fire weather concerns Sunday afternoon across portions of the region.

Northern stream shortwave energy phasing with the potent trough in the southern plains will then propel a polar cold front or at least stronger surface high pressure southward across the state and into the region from Sunday night into Monday morning. Much cooler and pleasant temperatures are expected behind this front through early next week. Models indicate little, if any, signal for rainfall with this frontal passage. Models then show a possible reinforcing cold front or another surge of surface high pressure from mid-to-late week. This keeps the cooler temperatures and comfortable conditions in place across the region. A few showers could develop within the cooler airmass towards mid-to-late week.

.MARINE (Now through Friday Night): Favorable marine conditions continue into Friday as a cold front works southward across Deep South Texas. Thunderstorms with frequent lightning and damaging winds are possible by tonight into early Friday. The frontal boundary slows and stalls across the coastal waters, elevating winds and building seas, especially across offshore Gulf of Mexico waters Friday afternoon into Friday night. Small Craft Caution to borderline Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible Friday night.

Saturday through Tuesday night: Southerly winds return Saturday with the warm front advancing northward. A series of cold fronts from early Sunday into next week will lead to moderate to elevated winds and seas throughout the long term period. For much of the period, mariners can expect small craft exercise caution to small craft advisory conditions.

FIRE WEATHER (Sunday). Elevated to critical erratic fire behavior will be possible on Sunday afternoon following a cold front thanks to a dry northwesterly flow. The relative humidities will fall into the 10 to 20 percent range with 20 foot winds of 15 to 20 knots. A Red flag warning could be warranted given these conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 73 80 73 86 / 50 20 20 10 BROWNSVILLE 73 82 74 88 / 50 20 30 10 HARLINGEN 72 81 72 89 / 50 20 30 10 MCALLEN 72 82 73 90 / 50 20 30 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 71 82 71 92 / 70 20 30 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 73 77 74 81 / 40 20 20 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. TX . None. GM . None.

This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Short Term . Hallman/56 Long Term . Brady/62 IDSS . Caceres/63 Coordinator . Castillo/61 Aviation . Schroeder/53


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PTIT2 - 8779770 - Port Isabel, TX 20 mi91 min ESE 15 G 19 80°F 79°F1008.1 hPa
BZST2 23 mi91 min SE 12 G 13
PCGT2 - 8779748 - South Padre Island CGS, TX 23 mi91 min SE 11 G 15 79°F 1007.4 hPa
RLIT2 29 mi91 min ESE 15 G 19 82°F 87°F1006.4 hPa
PMNT2 47 mi91 min 82°F 82°F1007.6 hPa

Wind History for Port Isabel, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brownsville, Brownsville / South Padre Island International Airport, TX5 mi68 minSE 1110.00 miA Few Clouds89°F72°F57%1006.5 hPa
Port Isabel, Port Isabel-Cameron County Airport, TX22 mi68 minSE 159.00 miFair86°F73°F67%1006.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBRO

Wind History from BRO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9SE11SE11SE7S7S6S5CalmCalmSE4S5CalmS3CalmCalmSE6S6SE9S10S14SE14SE13SE11SE11
1 day agoSE10SE13SE8SE8E6CalmCalmSE5SE6S6SE7S7S7CalmCalmCalmS3SE6S85S7SE9S7SE10
2 days agoSE12SE8SE7E3E5CalmCalmCalmSE3SE4SE5SE4E5E4E4CalmS6S9S8S7SE10SE7SE9SE12

Tide / Current Tables for Matamoros, Tamaulipas, Mexico
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Matamoros
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:18 AM CDT     1.41 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:12 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:32 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:04 PM CDT     0.82 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:45 PM CDT     0.95 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:50 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:54 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:05 PM CDT     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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00.30.60.91.11.31.41.41.31.110.90.80.80.90.90.90.90.70.50.2-0-0.2-0.3

Tide / Current Tables for Port Isabel, Texas
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Port Isabel
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:44 AM CDT     1.48 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:11 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:30 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:56 PM CDT     0.99 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:27 PM CDT     1.04 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:49 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:53 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:19 PM CDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.40.60.91.21.31.51.51.41.31.21.11111110.80.60.40.1-0.1-0.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Brownsville, TX (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Brownsville, TX
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.