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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 324 Pm Cst Tue Dec 5 2023
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Light chop on the bay.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Light chop on the bay becoming a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Light chop on the bay.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Light chop on the bay becoming a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Thursday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Gusts to 30 knots in the afternoon. Choppy on the bay.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Saturday..South winds around 15 knots becoming west in the afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay.
Saturday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Choppy on the bay.
Sunday..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast in the afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Light chop on the bay.

GMZ100 324 Pm Cst Tue Dec 5 2023
Synopsis..High pressure will prevail across the gulf of mexico through late week, maintaining light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas. A cold front this weekend brings the next round of hazardous marine conditions with gusty northerly winds and building seas Saturday.

FXUS64 KBRO 052337 AAA AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 537 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 220 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

Key Messages:

-High pressure builds across Deep South Texas.

-Seasonal temperatures.

Current radar continues to show light showers south of the border moving northeast into the southern coastal waters. Will continue to see this activity through this evening, with a few light showers/sprinkles possibly sneaking into Cameron county, though chances remain less than 20 percent.

Looking at the bigger picture, a mid/upper level ridge is beginning to build across Deep South Texas and a surface high at the surface will traverse southeast from the Central Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley through the period. This will allow drying out across the region tonight through Wednesday. Winds will remain light becoming more easterly by Wednesday evening.

Temperatures will remain near seasonal norms with daytime highs in the mid 70s and overnight lows in the mid 50s across the Ranchlands to low 60s across the lower Valley.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 220 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

Key Messages:

- Temperatures will continue to gradually warm into the low 80s through Saturday.

- A cold front will arrive late Saturday and bring cooler temperatures Sunday through early next week.

- Breezy winds will result in adverse beach and marine conditions beginning on Friday.

By the start of the long term period, low level southerly flow will prevail across Deep South Texas as a shortwave embedded within southwesterly flow aloft translates across the state of Texas. Limited moisture content should keep the region rain-free on Thursday, although higher moisture content over the Gulf waters may result in isolated to scattered showers. As this system translates east, a more potent upper level trough will swing across the Central Plains Friday and Saturday. A surface low and attendant cold front will develop as the upper level trough deepens, which will result in breezy southerly winds across Deep South Texas as the pressure gradient tightens. Sustained southerly winds around 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph are expected on Friday and will continue through Saturday ahead of the cold front.
Probabilistic guidance indicates there is a medium chance (30-60%)
that wind gusts exceed 30 mph Friday afternoon, particularly along the immediate coast as strong downward mixing allows higher wind speeds to reach the surface.

Most ensemble and deterministic guidance indicates the cold front will arrive late Saturday afternoon, with breezy northerly winds expected with the frontal passage. Probabilistic guidance indicates there is a high chance (70% or higher) of wind gusts exceeding Gale force Saturday evening and night over the Gulf waters, and we'll continue to monitor the potential for a Gale Watch/Warning over the next several days if consistency among guidance persists. Otherwise, the arrival of a cooler airmass will result in below normal tempeatures on Sunday with highs in the low to mid 60s region wide. A quick return to seasonable temperatures is expected by Monday, with highs near normal in the low to mid 70s, as southerly flow returns.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

A brief period of MVFR ceilings are expected to continue for the next few hours before conditions become VFR for the remainder of the TAF period. Light northeasterly winds will continue, as will the low possibility for a brief period of light rain this evening, though it is becoming increasingly unlikely.

MARINE
Issued at 220 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

Tonight through Wednesday night...Favorable marine conditions are expected through the period. Light northerly winds will turn more easterly by Wednesday night. Could see some patchy fog overnight across the Laguna Madre early Wednesday morning with visibility less than 5 nm at times. Seas of 1 to 3 ft are expected through the period with a wave period of 3 to 5 seconds.

Thursday through Monday night...Favorable marine conditions to begin the period, but a tightening pressure gradient will result in increasing winds beginning on Friday as an upper level system digs into the Plains. This system will send a cold front late Saturday into Sunday. SCEC to SCA conditions will be possible beginning on Friday over the Laguna Madre and Gulf waters. More widespread SCA conditions are expected behind the cold front.
Probabilistic guidance indicates there is a high chance (70% or higher) of Gale force wind gusts in wake of the frontal passage, and we will continue to monitor the potential for a Gale Watch/Warning for Saturday night. Conditions should begin to improve early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 65 76 62 76 / 20 0 0 10 HARLINGEN 60 76 59 77 / 10 0 0 10 MCALLEN 61 77 59 75 / 10 0 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 60 74 58 75 / 0 10 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 68 72 67 72 / 20 0 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 63 74 61 75 / 10 0 0 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Matamoros
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Tue -- 12:18 AM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:02 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:11 PM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 02:44 PM CST     0.43 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:38 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:48 PM CST     1.05 feet High Tide
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Matamoros, Tamaulipas, Mexico, Tide feet

Port Isabel
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Tue -- 12:17 AM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:01 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:10 PM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 03:03 PM CST     0.51 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:37 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:55 PM CST     1.20 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Isabel, Texas, Tide feet

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Brownsville, TX,