Friday, October18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Aventura, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 6:51PM Friday October 18, 2019 7:40 PM EDT (23:40 UTC) Moonrise 9:28PMMoonset 10:31AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ651 Coastal Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl From 20 To 60 Nm Excluding The Territorial Waters Of Bahamas- 404 Pm Edt Fri Oct 18 2019
.small craft should exercise caution...
Tonight..South southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Showers likely in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..South southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Chance of showers
slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon
Sunday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop.
Monday..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..East southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop.
Tuesday..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Slight chance of light showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of light showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..East northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Chance of light showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 404 Pm Edt Fri Oct 18 2019
Synopsis.hazardous marine conditions are expected for the gulf waters through Saturday night as tropical storm nestor tracks from the central gulf towards the florida panhandle. A small craft advisory is in effect for all gulf waters from this evening through Saturday night due to elevated winds and seas. Cautionary conditions are also expected for the atlantic waters during this time. Showers and Thunderstorms, some potentially strong, will increase in coverage for tonight into the weekend across all local waters.
Gulf stream hazards..Shower and Thunderstorm chances increase for today into the weekend. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of oct 17, 2019 at 1200 utc... 3 nautical miles northeast of fowey rocks. 7 nautical miles east of port everglades. 5 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 3 nautical miles east of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aventura, FL
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location: 25.95, -80.14     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 182336
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
736 pm edt Fri oct 18 2019

Aviation
MainlyVFR conditons will prevail through this evening. There
could be some shower development especially at kapf and kpbi,
however, most of the activity should remain north and west of the
east coast terminals. During the overnight hours, patchy fog could
develop across portions of the interior and west coast sections.

More shower and thunderstorm activity will redevelop across the
area during the overnight hours and periods of MVFR are possible
during this time frame.

Update
Updated the forecast based on current radar trends. Most of the
shower and thunderstorm activity is located across the lake
okeechobee region this evening and this will continue to spread
northeastward. Tropical storm nestor is located over the central
portion of the gulf of mexico and it will continue to bring
impacts across northern florida during the overnight hours and
through Saturday morning. At the same time, a dissipating cold
front near the lake okeechobee region will continue to gradually
move northward and it will keep south florida in the warm sector.

Shower and thunderstorm coverage will continue to increase during
the overnight hours and into Saturday morning. At the same time,
wind shear will become enhanced tonight, which will allow for
enough favorable support for the possibility of some strong
thunderstorms and even possible tornadic activity with the best
chances over the lake okeechobee region.

Prev discussion issued 320 pm edt Fri oct 18 2019
short term...

tonight-Saturday: the latest forecast for nestor over the central
gulf of mexico brings its impacts across northern florida
sometime between the overnight hours and through Saturday morning.

Meanwhile, a decaying frontal boundary near the lake okeechobee
region will gradually migrate northward during the next couple of
days and keep soflo on the warm sector. This overall synoptic
scenario will allow for shower and storm coverage to gradually
increase through the overnight hours and into Saturday morning.

Expect wind shear to become enhanced tonight, which combined with
the aforementioned factors, may provide enough favorable support for
some strong cells and even possible tornadic activity across the
soflo, with best chances over northern areas.

With increasing cloud cover through Saturday afternoon, expect some
lower daytime temps compared with previous days. Daytime highs
should remain in the mid-upper 80s tomorrow.

Long term...

Saturday night and Sunday...

tropical storm nestor is forecast to track from southeast georgia
on Saturday towards eastern north carolina on Sunday while
interacting with a mid-latitude trough. The leading edge of the
attendant warm advection wing should stretch from coastal georgia
towards the northwest bahamas, with a cold front located across
the eastern gulf of mexico. A southwest to northeast oriented
low-level jet should bring an area of focused warm moist
advection from the gulf coast towards the lake okeechobee region,
supporting a broken line of showers and thunderstorms early
Saturday evening. Their intensity and coverage should wane through
the night as the dynamic system departs and the low-level wind
field correspondingly weakens. A few strong thunderstorms are
possible during the early evening before the environment becomes
less conducive for this threat through the night. Given the warm
advection regime overnight lows will be quite mild ranging from
the lower 70s for the lake region to the lower 80s along the
atlantic coast.

Ridging begins building aloft of Sunday as nestor pulls away from
the region. South to southwest low-level flow will maintain a
decent moisture feed into south florida with a pinned atlantic
sea breeze convergence zone aiding in convective initiation. The
greatest coverage of showers and storms is expected across
northeast portions of our area (palm beach county) given this
regime, although scattered showers and a few storms are possible
elsewhere. Expect less in the way of coverage and intensity with
thunderstorms on Sunday given the warming temperatures and building
heights aloft. Warm readings will persist with highs mostly in
the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Monday through Friday...

seasonal and benign conditions are expected into Tuesday. Rain
chances increase by mid week as a cold front approaches the area. By
late week the front is forecast to stall somewhere in the
vicinity of the florida straits. Slightly cooler temperatures are
possible by week's end along with shower chances given the front
in the vicinity.

Aviation(18z tafs)...

based on radar trends and satellite coverage, vcts mention has
been moved to 20z and after as convection hasn't materialized
through 17z. But periods of MVFR are still possible for the later
part of this afternoon as winds remain generally sse and low
level moisture gradually increase. A good deck of mid upper lvl
clouds might hinder sfc heating for the remainder of this
afternoon, so there is not enough confidence for other than vcts
after 20z for now. Next chance at thunderstorm activity will be
Saturday after 08z as the potential tropical cyclone over the gulf
moves into northern florida. This system also tightens pressure
gradients Saturday afternoon with possible periods of breezy and
gusty S ssw winds.

Marine...

hazardous marine conditions are expected for the gulf waters through
Saturday night as tropical storm nestor tracks from the central gulf
towards the florida panhandle. A small craft advisory is in effect
for all gulf waters from this evening through Saturday night due to
elevated winds and seas. Cautionary conditions are also expected for
the atlantic waters during this time. Showers and thunderstorms,
some potentially strong, will increase in coverage for tonight into
the weekend across all local waters.

Beaches...

hazardous beach conditions are anticipated along the gulf coast as
tropical storm nestor tracks from the central gulf towards the
florida panhandle over the weekend. There is a high risk for rip
currents through Sunday, with minor coastal flooding possible
through the first half of Sunday as well.

Climate...

location date forecast hi-min record
naples 19 oct 76 78 in 1968
west palm beach 19 oct 77 80 in 2018
fort lauderdale 19 oct 79 79 in 2013
miami 19 oct 78 79 in 1970
naples 20 oct 76 76 in 2013
west palm beach 20 oct 76 78 in 2017
fort lauderdale 20 oct 78 79 in 1993
miami 20 oct 78 80 in 1969
preliminary point temps pops...

west palm beach 77 86 76 88 70 70 50 60
fort lauderdale 79 86 79 88 60 60 50 50
miami 78 87 78 89 60 50 50 40
naples 76 86 76 88 50 70 70 40
mfl watches warnings advisories...

fl... High rip current risk from 8 pm edt this evening through Sunday
evening for flz069.

Am... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 2 am edt Sunday
for gmz656-657-676.

Tonight Saturday and aviation... Ar

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 77 86 76 88 60 60 40 60
fort lauderdale 80 87 79 88 40 50 50 50
miami 78 88 78 89 40 50 40 40
naples 77 86 76 88 60 70 60 40

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk through Sunday evening for flz069.

Am... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Sunday for gmz656-657-676.

Update... 55 cwc
aviation... 55 cwc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PEGF1 9 mi58 min 1011.7 hPa
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 15 mi58 min SE 9.9 G 12 86°F1011.5 hPa
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 25 mi40 min SSE 15 G 16 83°F 84°F1012 hPa (-0.0)
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 46 mi52 min SE 9.9 G 13 82°F 84°F1012.9 hPa
MDKF1 48 mi100 min 87°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hollywood, North Perry Airport, FL6 mi47 minSSE 810.00 miFair84°F73°F72%1012.2 hPa
Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport, FL8 mi47 minSSE 1110.00 miOvercast83°F75°F77%1011.5 hPa
Miami, Opa Locka Airport, FL8 mi47 minS 910.00 miFair83°F75°F77%1012.1 hPa
Miami, Miami International Airport, FL12 mi47 minVar 510.00 miOvercast83°F73°F72%1011.9 hPa
Fort Lauderdale, Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport, FL17 mi47 minSE 610.00 miFair83°F75°F77%1011.9 hPa
Pompano Beach, Pompano Beach Airpark, FL21 mi47 minSE 710.00 miA Few Clouds84°F75°F77%1011.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHWO

Wind History from HWO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3E8SE11SE10E9SE8SE9SE8SE8
1 day agoW9W9SW8SW7W7SW6W4W5W3W3W3SW5SW5W7W7W9W8W6SW9W10W8W17
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2 days agoE5E8E6E5SE5SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6--SW6SW7SW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Dumfoundling Bay, Florida
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Dumfoundling Bay
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:49 AM EDT     2.50 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:35 AM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:31 PM EDT     2.62 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:07 PM EDT     0.93 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:27 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.42.52.421.61.20.80.50.50.81.31.82.32.62.62.42.11.71.310.911.31.8

Tide / Current Tables for Miami Harbor Entrance, Florida Current
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Miami Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:58 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:16 AM EDT     -1.59 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 07:09 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:53 AM EDT     2.10 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 11:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:39 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:48 PM EDT     -1.36 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:43 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:14 PM EDT     1.73 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 10:27 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.9-0-1.1-1.6-1.5-1.2-0.7-0.10.81.82.11.81.50.7-0.4-1.2-1.3-1.2-0.9-0.50.21.21.71.6

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.