Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Aventura, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 5:31PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 1:40 PM EST (18:40 UTC) Moonrise 4:32PMMoonset 5:17AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ651 Coastal Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl From 20 To 60 Nm Excluding The Territorial Waters Of Bahamas- 327 Am Est Tue Dec 10 2019
Today..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of light showers.
Wednesday..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots along the coast to east southeast 5 to 15 knots in the gulf stream. Seas around 2 feet. Period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Chance of light showers.
Wednesday night..East winds 5 to 15 knots along the coast to east 10 to 15 knots in the gulf stream. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Chance of light showers.
Thursday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Along the coast, seas 2 to 3 feet. In the gulf stream, seas 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet in the afternoon. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. Chance of showers
Thursday night...east winds 10 to 15 knots along the coast to east 10 to 20 knots in the gulf stream. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet along the coast and 5 to 7 feet with occasional to 9 feet in the gulf stream. North swell 3 feet after midnight. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. Chance of showers in the evening. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet along the coast and 5 to 7 feet with occasional to 9 feet in the gulf stream. North northwest swell around 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers.
Friday night..South winds around 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of light showers.
Saturday..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of light showers.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 327 Am Est Tue Dec 10 2019
Synopsis.. Generally benign boating conditions are expected for the next several days. Conditions deteriorate across the atlantic waters Thursday as northeasterly swell from a deepening low off the conus east coast arrives to our local waters. This swell will cause wave heights to increase to around 6 to 9 feet, with the highest in the gulf stream. The influence from the swell is short-lived, and benign marine conditions are expected for the weekend and into early next week.
Gulf stream hazards..Increasing waves and swell Thursday and Friday. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 10, 2019 at 1200 utc... 19 nautical miles east northeast of fowey rocks. 20 nautical miles east northeast of port everglades. 15 nautical miles east of lake worth. 19 nautical miles east southeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aventura, FL
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location: 25.95, -80.14     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 101738 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL Issued by National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 1238 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

Aviation. General VFR conditions through the afternoon or evening . with a few periods of brief MVFR along the east coast terminals through 20Z. Brisk 12-15kt winds from the southeast will slacken with sunset this evening . generally below 10kts. Lighter winds allow for some patchy fog after midnight . however . no significant visibility concerns at the forecast terminals themselves. Great concern for fog will be over inland areas through 13/14Z.

Prev Discussion. /issued Issued by National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL/

Update . Inherited forecast appears on track as stacked ridging remain in control of south Florida for one final days.

15z water vapor and H4 RAP analysis showing mid and upper level ridging extending from the Bahamas, over south Florida, and then into the SE Gulf of Mexico. The presence of this protective ridge was sampled by the 12Z KMFL RAOB this morning . with a well- defined subsidence inversion located around 825mb. Above this level, the column becomes rather dry . although the overall PW value is not all that low for the time of year.

Closer to the surface we find an Atlantic high pressure ridge axis stretching westward across the central FL peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Our position to the south of this ridge axis is providing a moist southeasterly flow. A sct-bkn shallow cumulus field is expanding across the landmass as diurnal heating warms temperatures through the 70s . on the way to the lower/middle 80s this afternoon.

Generally speaking, the ridging/dry air aloft, and lack of any appreciable forcing for ascent should keep the majority of the region dry through the afternoon/evening hours. The only exception to this may be over the interior northern zones . mainly over and around Lake Okeechobee Despite the fact that it is December. strong diurnal heating . and a weak pressure gradient up toward the lake . in closer proximity to the surface ridge axis is expected to allow for a west-coast sea- breeze to develop and propagate inland. Higher resolution guidance members are mostly in agreement that the collision of this boundary with the more synoptic southeasterly flow later this afternoon . combined with some added directional convergence caused by a feeble lake breeze . may be enough to support a few updrafts capable of supporting brief showers. The most likely areas to see a brief shower after 19-20Z would be Glades/Hendry counties. Convective allowing guidance is generally too aggressive with this type of activity, however, given the degree of heating today and fact that even a few of the parameterized members have their schemes tripped in this scenario . will continue to show some slight chance to chance PoPs in this northern region.

Prev Discussion . /issued 546 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019/

Aviation . Generally VFR conditions are expected through the period. A few brief showers will be possible along the east coast sites, and some fog will be possible across the interior both this morning and overnight tonight.

Prev Discussion . /issued 349 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019/

Short Term (Today Through Wednesday Night) . Some fog has begun to develop across portions of the interior this morning and could become dense in a few places before dissipating after sunrise. Breezy southeasterly flow is expected today as surface high pressure continues to push eastward over the Atlantic and a cold front pushes into the state. Increasing moisture out ahead of this front will allow for a few showers to develop today and tonight, primarily along the east coast. The increased moisture will likely allow for more fog development across the interior overnight tonight and again could become dense in some areas. The front will ultimately stall out to the north over Central Florida tomorrow, with deeper moisture remaining overhead. This will lead to a slight increase in showers Wednesday and Wednesday night, with a few thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon.

Long Term .

Thursday and Friday .

The stalled frontal zone to the north of the CWA will assist in keeping elevated moisture across the region along with some lift. This will promote the development of rain showers on Thursday and Friday that may be diurnally enhanced. Instability associated with this frontal zone will be limited over South Florida; however, differential heating over the interior and southern portions of the peninsula may allow for the development of isolated thunderstorms.

Throughout the day on Friday, a major shortwave trough is forecast to progress ESE towards the northern Gulf of Mexico. As this trough traverses over the aforementioned frontal zone, cyclogenesis will likely materialize near the Big Bend region of Florida. Dynamic lift associated with this new area of low pressure is forecast to remain north of the CWA on Friday as it lifts to the NE. Therefore, this feature will likely enhance rain showers on Friday due to a brief increase in moisture advection and mass convergence over South Florida.

This Weekend Into Early Next Week .

By early this weekend, the aforementioned area of low pressure will continue to lift NE, dragging a weak frontal boundary across Florida. This will allow for elevated moisture to stick around over South Florida and promote the development of rain showers across the area on Saturday. By Sunday, drier air will advect over the peninsula as high pressure briefly builds over the region. Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Sunday due to the passage of this weak frontal boundary.

By next Tuesday, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the Mid-South and progress eastward. This will lead to a well- defined frontal boundary approaching South Florida by the end of the forecast period, bringing additional rain showers across the region.

Marine . Generally benign boating conditions are expected for the next several days. Conditions deteriorate across the Atlantic waters Thursday as northeasterly swell from a deepening low off the CONUS East Coast arrives to our local waters. This swell will cause wave heights to increase to around 6 to 9 feet, with the highest in the Gulf Stream. The influence from the swell is short-lived, and benign marine conditions are expected for the weekend and into early next week.

Beaches . A high risk of rip currents is forecast for the Palm Beaches today with a moderate risk forecast for the rest of the Atlantic beaches due to breezy southeasterly winds. Northeast swell will likely cause an increased rip current risk and rough surf for the Atlantic beaches, primarily the Palm Beaches, Thursday and Friday of this week.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 69 82 69 80 / 30 40 50 40 Fort Lauderdale 72 82 71 80 / 30 40 40 40 Miami 71 83 71 81 / 20 40 30 30 Naples 67 82 67 81 / 10 20 20 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EST this evening for FLZ168.

AM . None. GM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PEGF1 9 mi64 min SE 11 G 16 80°F 1019.4 hPa
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 15 mi64 min ESE 8.9 G 12 80°F 76°F1018.9 hPa
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 25 mi40 min SE 14 G 15 79°F 77°F1018.9 hPa (-1.7)
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 46 mi52 min SSE 12 G 14 78°F 78°F1020.6 hPa
MDKF1 48 mi100 min 75°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hollywood, North Perry Airport, FL6 mi47 minSE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F71°F65%1019.2 hPa
Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport, FL8 mi47 minSE 1410.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F73°F77%1018.6 hPa
Miami, Opa Locka Airport, FL8 mi47 minSE 13 G 2010.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F71°F65%1019.1 hPa
Miami, Miami International Airport, FL12 mi47 minESE 14 G 2010.00 miMostly Cloudy83°F71°F67%1018.9 hPa
Fort Lauderdale, Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport, FL17 mi47 minSE 1410.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F72°F72%1019.1 hPa
Pompano Beach, Pompano Beach Airpark, FL21 mi47 minSE 145.00 miPartly Cloudy with Haze82°F72°F72%1019.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHWO

Wind History from HWO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE10SE13SE9E9E6E5E3E4E5SE6SE5SE7--SE7SE6SE6SE5SE5SE10--SE11SE14SE11
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1 day agoNE8E7E9E8E7E5E5E4E5E5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE11SE11SE9E10
2 days agoSE4E7NE8E6E3CalmCalmCalmN3N3N4CalmNW3CalmN3CalmN3N4CalmCalmE9E9E11E11

Tide / Current Tables for Dumfoundling Bay, Florida
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Dumfoundling Bay
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:28 AM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:16 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:23 AM EST     2.45 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:59 PM EST     0.48 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:32 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:29 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:22 PM EST     2.30 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.40.10.20.511.62.12.42.42.21.81.30.90.60.50.611.622.32.221.6

Tide / Current Tables for Miami Harbor Entrance, Florida Current
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Miami Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:55 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:16 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:34 AM EST     1.99 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:19 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:18 PM EST     -1.28 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:26 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:32 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:29 PM EST     1.61 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:30 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:17 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:51 PM EST     -1.40 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.3-0.90.11.21.8221.40.4-0.6-1-1.1-1.3-1.2-0.50.61.41.61.61.30.3-0.7-1.2-1.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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